PROFANE

FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions

2009-11-22T15:21:00.011-05:00

Bracket

Click here for a printable bracket.

South Dakoka State (8-3, At-Large)
at
#1 Montana (11-0, Big Sky Auto-Bid)

Eastern Washington (8-3, At-Large)
at
Stephen F. Austin (9-2, Southland Auto-Bid)

Elon (9-2, At-Large)
at
#4 Richmond (10-1, At-Large)

South Carolina State (10-1, MEAC Auto-Bid)
at
Appalachian State (9-2, ~~At-Large~~ SOCON Auto-Bid)

Holy Cross (9-2, Patriot Auto-Bid)
at
#2 Villanova (10-1, CAA Auto-Bid)

New Hampshire (9-2, At-Large)
at
McNeese State (9-2, At-Large)

Eastern Illinois (8-3, OVC Auto-Bid)
at
#3 Southern Illinois (10-1, MVFC Auto-Bid)

Weber State (7-4, At-Large)
at
William and Mary (9-2, At-Large)

Prediction success:
At-Large Bids: 8/8 (7/8 last year)
Seeds: 4/4 (3/4 last year)
Home Teams: 8/8 (6/8 last year)
Pairings: 6/8 (1/8 last year)

Criticism

Congratulations to the selection committee for a job well done. Unlike last year, my criticisms are very much of the nit-picking variety.

Seeding

Rather than focusing on schedule strength, or how a team actually won, the committee chose to focus on Montana's gaudy record. In the words of John McCutcheon, the selection chair: "By virtue of Montana's undefeated record, it gave them a slight edge for the top seed." That is one way to go, but, it my opinion, it meant seeding Montana over two superior teams, Villanova and Southern Illinois. Villanova by far had the best combination of strength of schedule and wins in the FCS. No team other than Southern Illinois had any FCS team get any closer than a touchdown.

At-Large Bids

I only bring this up because the selection chat, while mostly devoid of any useful information, gave us this important insight:

There were actually eleven teams under consideration for the final two spots in the field, so it would be difficult to single out any specific school as being the last team out.

What were those eleven teams? I would posit Butler, Central Connecticut State, Colgate, Dayton, Eastern Washington, Florida A&M, Lafayette, Liberty, Northern Iowa, Prairie View A&M, Weber State. This is why I keep those teams "Livin' on a Prayer" under consideration right up through my final updates.

Geographic Fudging?

Unlike last year, that seems to have been absent, with one possible exception. I asked the following question during the selection chat. Naturally, it is a question which was not answered:

I note that the teams that would have probably been #5 and #6 if the field was fully seeded, Appalachian State and William and Mary, have potential second round matchups with the #4 and #3 seeds, Richmond and Southern Illinois respectively. Was this deliberate or happenstance?

In the case of Richmond/Appalachian State this was dictated by the pairing rules. But by those same pairing rules, it would have made more sense to place New Hampshire/McNeese State in the same pod as Southern Illinois, and William and Mary/Weber State in the same pod as Villanova.

But these criticisms are about as minor as they come. Congratulations, again, to the committee.

Predictions

The Jackrabbits run Montana ragged, but the home field advantage sticks.

The Lumberjacks face an air raid, successfully pulled off by Eastern Washington.

The fortunes of the Phoenix turn to ashes, and Richmond begins its defense of the title.

The Bulldogs are not stubborn enough to prevent a victory by Appalachian State, setting up a quarterfinal made-for-TV.

The Crusade somehow fails to convert anyone at Villanova.

The Cowboys are shredded by New Hampshire.

Panthers of any stripe show themselves unable to deal with Southern Illinois this year.

The Wildcats face jet lag, and a team too tough to handle in William and Mary.

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #3: Midweek Update and Predictions
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2009 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2009: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions

FCS Playoffs 2009: Bracket Projection

2009-11-21T20:26:00.006-05:00

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #3: Midweek Update and Predictions
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2009 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2009: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions

Holy Cross (9-2; Patriot Auto-Bid)
at
#1 Villanova (10-1; CAA Auto-Bid)

Eastern Washington (8-3; At-Large)
at
William and Mary (9-2; At-Large)

Elon (9-2; At-Large)
at
#4 Richmond (10-1; At-Large)

South Carolina State (10-1; MEAC Auto-Bid)
at
Appalachian State (9-2; SOCON Auto-Bid)

Eastern Illinois (8-3; OVC Auto-Bid)
at
#2 Southern Illinois (10-1; MVFC Auto-Bid)

New Hampshire (9-2; At-Large)
at
McNeese State (8[9]-2[3]; At Large)

South Dakota State (8-3; At-Large)
at
#3 Montana (11-0; Big Sky Auto-Bid)

Weber State (7-4; At-Large)
at
Stephen F. Austin (9-2; Southlands Auto-Bid)

As always, the pairing rules leave a number of things to be desired. In this case, four of the top six teams are in the top part of the bracket, including three of the four CAA teams. So how did I get there?

At-Large Bids

Teams with nine wins or more from the top conferences choose themselves, so there is no question about Elon, New Hampshire, Richmond, and William & Mary. Teams from the top conferences with eight or more wins typically get in as well, so there is no great question about Eastern Washington, McNeese State, or South Dakota State. After this, the picture is about a clear as mud, given the losses today by Lafayette, Liberty, and Northern Iowa. Who has a shot at the final spot? As I see it, it comes down to a 9-2 team with a weak schedule (albeit with 9 DI wins), Colgate, and two 7-4 teams from top conferences, Northern Iowa, and Weber State. Given the committee’s practice of choosing four-loss teams from strong conferences in each of the last two years, I suspect that Northern Iowa or Weber State will get the nod. Of these two teams, Weber State by far has the best victory, over ~~Appalachian State~~ Eastern Washington, and its worst loss, Montana State was not as bad as Northern Iowa’s worst loss, to Illinois State. Weber State gets the last bid.

Seeding

There are five obvious candidates for seeds this year, the auto-bid winners from the top four conferences, Appalachian State, Montana, Southern Illinois, and Villanova, and another team, Richmond, which both had a near-perfect record and a tough schedule. I place Villanova in the #1 spot, since they topped the computer numbers, played an entirely DI schedule, and picked up an FBS win. Southern Illinois is in the #2 slot since no FCS team got closer than a touchdown this year, and they lost only to FBS opponent Marshall by a field goal. Montana is placed in the #3 slot despite their undefeated season, since FCS teams repeatedly ran them close, including 1-10 Idaho State. The committee might be tempted to give SOCON champion the #4 seed, but Richmond has one fewer loss and an FBS win under its belt.

Seeded Pairings

Holy Cross is the closest non-conference matchup for Villanova; a very short trip by plane or a long bus ride.

Eastern Illinois will travel by bus to take on the Salukis in the Illinois championship.

South Dakota State is the closest non-conference matchup for Montana, but the distance is so long that this pairing is very much in doubt.

Elon will have a medium bus trip up I-85 to take on Richmond.

Non-Seeded Pairings

There is only one obvious geographic pairing in this group, Appalachian State and South Carolina State – and Appalachian State will likely take the home game. Beyond this, there are problems, given the vast distances between the remaining six teams. Who will have home games? Based on attendance, McNeese State, Stephen F. Austin, and William and Mary. Who to pair with them? New Hampshire's shortest (permissible) plane flight would be to McNeese State in Louisiana, and Weber State's shortest plane flight would be to Stephen F. Austin in Texas. This unfortunately leaves Eastern Washington to fly cross-country to William and Mary. Any of these pairings could completely go in a different direction!

Finishing the Bracket

Elon/Richmond and SCSU/Appalachian State make for a neat, southeast pod. After that, we are once again left with a mess. Here is the rationale. William & Mary Would have a short trip to a potential second round matchup with Villanova.Weber State and McNeese State would have (shorter) trips to Montana than any other pair of teams. This leaves New Hampshire and McNeese State as the leftover pairing, matched up with Southern Illinois. As always, however, the committee may choose to fudge its rules to produce a better bracket than their rules dictate.

Bids by Conference

CAA: 4
Big Sky: 3
MVFC: 2
SOCON: 2
Southland: 2
MEAC: 1
OVC: 1
Patriot: 1

FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2009 Playoffs

2009-11-21T13:22:00.032-05:00

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #3: Midweek Update and Predictions
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2009 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2009: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions

Consequential scores and updates as the afternoon progresses:

1:26 PM

William and Mary 3
Richmond 3
half
A defense dominated snoozer so far.

Update (1) 2:11 PM

Lafayette 7
Lehigh 7
half
Lehigh hanging tough in THE RIVALRY.

UNI 3
Illinois State 13
1:47 2nd
Every bubble team is now a ~~Redturds~~ Redbirds fan.

Liberty 10
Stony Brook 21
4:16 2nd
Flames bubble hopes in jeopardy.

Update (2) 2:24 PM

Drake 3
Butler 3
half
*SNOOZE*

UNI 3
Illinois State 16
half
Ughhh. Sick Panthers.

Liberty 13
Stony Brook 21
half
Flames extinguished?

William and Mary 3
Richmond 10
14:16 4th
WOO HOO! ACTION!

Update (3) 2:27 PM

William and Mary 10
Richmond 10
12:09 4th
Turning into a good one!

Update (4) 2:43 PM

Central Connecticut State 14
St. Francis 13
final
NEC honors to the Blue Devils. Chances of an at-large? Slim to none.

Eastern Kentucky 20
Jacksonville State 21
half
Colonels keep their under-the-radar playoff chances alive.

Update (5) 3:01 PM

William & Mary 10
Richmond 13
final
With the last second field goal, the Spiders will fancy their chances for a seed.

Update (6) 3:16 PM

Southern Illinois 21
SEMO 0
half
Should be seed Salukis!

Update (7) 3:39 PM

UNI 13
Illinois State 16
final
UNI cooks its season, and bubble teams everywhere cheer.

UNI 20
Illinois State 16
final
REDTURDS MELTDOWN!

UNI 20
Illinois State 22
final
PANTHERS MELTDOWN!

Lafayette 21
Lehigh 21
OT

Lafayette 21
Lehigh 26
final/OT

Update (8) 4:05 PM

Drake 17
Butler 20
final
Butler takes Pioneer League honors. With bubble teams dropping left and right, should they be ruled out of an at-large!?!?!?

Liberty 33
Stony Brook 36
final
Does ANY bubble team want to win today?

Update (9) 4:18 PM

Eastern Kentucky 26
Jacksonville State 34
final
Eastern Illinois backs into the OVC auto-bid.

Update (10) 4:28 PM

Stephen F. Austin 10
Northwestern State 10
half
Another team with work to do having problems.

Florida A&M 28
Bethune Cookman 0
half
Only the 'fringe' bubble teams seem to be doing well, with the exception of:

South Dakota State 27
Western Illinois 7
15:00 4th
Go Jackrabbits!

Update (11) 4:52 PM

Southern Illinois 42
SEMO 24
final
Seeded Salukis!

Cal Poly 14
Weber State 47
final
Is Weber State in? I think so!

Western Carolina 7
Appalachian State 3
2nd
Mountaineers need a win to keep seed hopes alive.

Update (12) 4:58 PM

So where is the bubble now, assuming no more upsets?

Last team in: (wins/losses categorized by GPI)
Weber State: 7-4 (Wins: 11, 23, 35, 47, 57, 68, 79; Losses: FBS, FBS, 5, 11)

Last team out:
Northern Iowa: 7-4 (Wins: 32, 33, 34, 54, 84, 105, 115; Losses: FBS, 2, 10, 40)

Update (13) 4:59 PM

South Dakota State 27
Western Illinois 7
final
Grats to the Jackrabbits on what will be their first FCS playoff appearance!

Update (14) 5:09 PM

Montana 33
Montana State 19
final
Montana books a seed, probably #3.

Update (15) 5:40 PM

Arkansas Pine-Bluff 17
Prairie View A&M 49
final
Another of the long-long shots wins.

Update (16) 6:02 PM

Stephen F. Austin 19
Northwestern State 10
final
Stephen F. Austin takes the Southlands auto-bid.

Florida A&M 42
Bethune-Cookman 6
final
Another another long-long shot wins.

Update (17) 6:27 PM

Western Carolina 14
Appalachian State 19
final
The Mountaineers make their case for a seed.

Delaware 12
Villanova 30
final
#1 seed clinched?

There is only one other game which will influence the playoff field, as bubble losses mean that McNeese State does not need to win later today to get in:

Eastern Washington 28
Northern Arizona 10
2:51 2nd

Final Update (18) 8:25

Eastern Washington 49
Northern Arizona 45
final
Given the carnage earlier in the day, the McNeese State game has become irrelevant, so it is time to post a projected bracket.

FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #3: Midweek Update and Predictions

2009-11-18T19:54:00.008-05:00

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #3: Midweek Update and Predictions
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2009 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2009: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions

Comments, corrections, and (constructive) criticism are most welcome, but be mindful of the rules of engagement at this blog. Please join me on Saturday while I live-blog the significant results as they come in.

Predictions

Seeds:
1. Villanova
2. Southern Illinois
3. Montana
4. Richmond

Auto-Bids:
Montana (Big Sky)
Villanova (CAA)
South Carolina State (MEAC)
Southern Illinois (MVFC)
Eastern Illinois (OVC)
Holy Cross (Patriot)
Appalachian State (SOCON)
Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

At-Large Bids: (in order of comfort)
Richmond (CAA)
William & Mary (CAA)
Northern Iowa (MVFC)
New Hampshire (CAA)
Elon (SOCON)
South Dakota State (MVFC)
Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
McNeese State (Southland)

Bubble:
Lafayette (Patriot)
Weber State (Big Sky)
Liberty (Big South)

Seeding Discussion

Why is Villanova predicted as #1 seed over two teams, Southern Illinois and Montana, which have so far run the table in their conferences? They have two advantages. The Wildcats picked up an FBS win, and they had nothing but DI teams on their schedule. Southern Illinois would have been the #1 seed had they not lost by three points at FBS Marshall, but they have gone undefeated in the FCS, with only one team, Northern Iowa, getting within a touchdown. Montana might feel hard done by with a #3 seed given their undefeated season so far (which I expect to continue on Saturday – if it does not, they should slip to the #4 spot at best). It should be noted, however, that they both had a soft out of conference schedule, and have been run close by teams that they should have dominated – most notably by 1-10 Idaho State, who they beat on a last second field goal.

The biggest question mark surrounds the #4 seed. Will the committee decide to share the wealth? If they do, then Appalachian State will slot in at #4. If they choose the final slot based on this seasons’ performances, then expect to see a second seeded CAA team – whoever wins when William & Mary visits Richmond. Ironically, should Delaware pull an upset of Villanova, then the winner of the WM Richmond game could end up in the #1 slot. But beyond the five teams discussed, there are no serious contenders for seeds.

The At-Large Picture

Ultimately, there are nine teams who will fancy their chances to take the eight at-large bids:

Elon; Eastern Washington; McNeese State; Montana State; New Hampshire; Northern Iowa; Richmond; South Dakota State; William & Mary

Of these teams, four, Elon, New Hampshire, Richmond, and William & Mary are safe bet for an at-large bid should they lose on Saturday. Three of them, Eastern Washington, Northern Iowa, and South Dakota State are probably safe with a win. McNeese State and Montana State will be sweating even should they win.

The good news for the Cowboys and the Bobcats, and indeed other bubble teams like Lafayette, Weber State, and Liberty, is that there are multiple scenarios which would free up slots:

1. Losses by Eastern Washington, Northern Iowa, or South Dakota State.
2. A loss by Stephen F. Austin, along with a McNeese State win would give an auto-bid, rather than an at-large to the Cowboys. Stephen F. Austin’s numbers are weak enough that they would probably not be an at-large contender.

Who would this allow in? We would have a choice of three teams with imperfect resumes:

Lafayette (8-2; 4-1)
Lafayette can reach 9 DI wins with a victory in THE RIVALRY. Although their computer numbers are soft, the fact that this comes from a team in an auto-qualifying conference means that the committee will be tempted to take them – indeed Patriot League teams have received at-large bids with numbers worse than Lafayette’s would be with a victory on Saturday.

Weber State (6-4; 6-2)
Weber State is still in the conversation since they scheduled tougher than any other FCS team, taking on, and narrowly losing to, two FBS teams. A win on Saturday would leave them at 7-4, and by no means ruled out given that the committee has awarded at-large bids to 4 loss teams in each of the last two years.

Liberty (8-2; 5-0)
Liberty would have been in a much stronger position had they scheduled beatable FCS teams instead of West Virginia and DII West Virginia Wesleyan. The consequence of this is that they have failed to pick up two wins against FCS teams from auto-qualifying conferences, and find themselves with soft computer numbers. An at-large bid might be justice, but justice for the wrong reasons.

Auto-Bids Still Contested

CAA
Villanova takes the auto-bid with a win. The winner of the William & Mary/Richmond game takes the auto-bid with a Villanova loss.

Southland
Stephen F. Austin takes the auto-bid with a win. McNeese State takes the auto-bid with a win and a Stephen F. Austin loss. Should both teams lose, and Texas State wins, there will need to be some serious researching of tie-breaking procedures.

Schedule of Games to Follow Saturday (All Times Eastern)

12:00 PM
William & Mary at Richmond – seeding and potential auto-bid impact

12:30 PM
Lafayette at Lehigh – Lafayette needs the win for a shot at an at-large

1:00 PM
Drake at Butler – Pioneer League honors at stake
Central Connecticut State at St. Francis – NEC honors, and long-shot at-large hopes on the line for CCS
Northern Iowa at Illinois State – Play in, or play out for Northern Iowa
Liberty at Stony Brook – Flames need a win to have a hope of dancing

2:00 PM
Cal Poly at Weber State – Wildcats need a win to have a hope of dancing
Southern Illinois at SEMO – Seed cement for the Salukis
Arkansas Pine-Bluff at Prairie View A&M – Panthers keep long-shot at-large hopes alive with a win

2:05 PM
South Dakota State at Western Illinois – Play in, or play out for the Jackrabbits
Montana at Montana State – seeding implications for Montana, survival implications for State

2:30 PM
Bethune-Cookman at Florida A&M – Rattlers keep the most remote of at-large chances alive with a win

3:00 PM
Sam Houston State at Texas State – Texas State keeps remote chances for an auto-bid alive with a win
Stephen F. Austin at Northwestern State – Lumberjacks take an auto-bid with a win

3:30 PM
Delaware at Villanova – Wildcats take the #1 seed, and a CAA auto-bid, with a win
Western Carolina at Appalachian State – Mountaineers keep seeding chances alive with a win

5:05 PM
Eastern Washington at Northern Arizona – Play in, or play out for the Eagles

8:00 PM
Central Arkansas at McNeese State – The Cowboys probably dance with a win, so the final spot will likely not be settled until late in the evening

FCS Playoff Watch #2 2009

2009-11-14T22:36:00.010-05:00

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #3: Midweek Update and Predictions
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2009 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2009: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions

This will be a weekly feature until selection day. Comments, corrections, and (constructive) criticism are most welcome. Be mindful of the rules of engagement at this blog. I will post a mid-week update with a full seeding discussion after the release of the polls and the GPI.

Seeds (2): Montana; Southern Illinois

Locks (9): Appalachian State; Eastern Illinois; Elon; Holy Cross; New Hampshire; Richmond; South Carolina State; Villanova; William & Mary

In the Hunt (6): Eastern Washington; McNeese State; Montana State; Northern Iowa; South Dakota State; Stephen F. Austin

Livin’ on a Prayer (9): Butler; Central Connecticut State; Colgate; Florida A&M; Lafayette; Liberty; Prairie View A&M; Weber State; Texas State

Off the Board (8): Delaware; Eastern Kentucky; Illinois State; Massachusetts; Missouri State; Northern Arizona; Southeastern Louisiana; Tennessee Tech

Auto Bid Conferences

Big Sky Conference

Montana (10-0; 7-0)

Montana took care of business this week by posting a 38-10 margin over Northern Colorado – precisely the sort of scoreline that we SHOULD have seen last week. This win also garners them the Big Sky auto-bid. It also clinches a #3 or #4 seed; the basic standard this year is going to be one-loss champions from the top four conferences.
Status: Seed

Eastern Washington (7-3; 5-2)

Eastern’s win was nothing more than should be expected in playing Southern Utah, a perennial FCS whipping boy. Next week is crunch time. A win at Northern Arizona would leave them at 8-3, with computer numbers probably strong enough to take an at-large bid, although a loss by another at-large contender would be required for comfort. A loss would leave them praying that the committee takes a 7-4 team.
Status: In The Hunt

Montana State (7-3; 5-2)

Montana State heads into their yearly grudge match with Montana with a simple prospect in front of them. Win, and reach seven DI wins and an 8-3 record, and likely receive one of the final at-large bids handed out. Lose and stay home.
Status: In the Hunt

Weber State (6-4; 6-2)

Weber State managed moral victories against FBS opponents Wyoming and Colorado State earlier in the season. They need a real one against Cal Poly on Saturday to keep themselves in the playoff hunt. They are the strongest 4-loss team in the FCS, so do not be surprised to see them in the field should other events proceed favorably for them.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Northern Arizona (5-5; 4-3)

The loss to Weber State leaves Northern Arizona unable to reach seven DI wins.
Status: Off the Board

Key games this week:

Montana at Montana State
Montana wants the best seed possible, while Montana State needs a win to stay alive.

Eastern Washington at Northern Arizona
Eastern needs to win to take an at-large bid.

Cal Poly at Weber State
Weber State keeps its chances alive with a win.

Colonial Athletic Association

Villanova (9-1; 6-1)

With its expected win at Towson, and the loss by New Hampshire, Villanova is now in the driver’s seat for the CAA auto-bid and the #1 seed, as they defeated the two other one-loss CAA teams, Richmond and William & Mary. Should they underestimate a tough Delaware team on Saturday it could all go pear-shaped for them.
Status: Lock

Richmond (9-1; 7-1)

Like Villanova, Richmond were in taking care of business mode on Saturday, but face a tough final opponent in William and Mary. Win, and they keep their hopes of a CAA auto-bid and seed alive. Lose, and they will have to settle for an at-large bid, and, hopefully, a first-round match at home.
Status: Lock

William & Mary (9-1; 6-1)

William & Mary took down New Hampshire on Saturday in a thriller which lived up to the hype. Like Richmond, they are still in the running for the CAA auto-bid and a seed, while losing will still yield an at-large bid.
Status: Lock

New Hampshire (8-2; 5-2)

New Hampshire’s loss to William & Mary now means that their final game of the season against Maine is essentially irrelevant. To everyone outside of Maine and New Hampshire that is. TURN EM’ BLACK AND BLUE BEARS!
Status: Lock

Delaware (6-4; 4-3) and Massachusetts (5-5; 3-4)

With their losses, both teams are unable to reach seven DI wins.
Status: Off the board

Key games this week:

Delaware at Villanova
Villanova clinches the auto-bid and a seed with a win.

William & Mary at Richmond
Both teams could still take the auto-bid with a win, and could, potentially, represent a second seeded CAA team. On paper, the best matchup in the FCS this week.

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

South Carolina State (7-0; 9-1)

The Bulldogs clinched the MEAC auto-bid with their win on Saturday. Computer numbers are not strong enough to contend for a seed.
Status: Lock

Florida A&M (7-3; 5-2)

The disastrous loss at Hampton has cooked Florida A&M’s chances, and they will be one of the first minimally qualifying teams to go off the selection board.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Missouri Valley Football Conference

Southern Illinois (9-1; 8-0)
WOO HOO SALUKIS! Southern Illinois completed a perfect conference season on Saturday, and should receive the #2 overall seed should they take down hapless SEMO next Saturday. Numbers are so strong that, even with a loss, they have a better resume than Appalachian State or a third CAA team, so a seed is safe.
Status: Seed

South Dakota State (7-3; 6-1)

South Dakota State narrowly failed to take down FBS Minnesota on Saturday, so they must wait until the final game of their season to clinch what they hope will be their first FCS playoff berth. The only thing standing in their way is 1-9 Western Illinois. Brace yourself for dancing Jackrabbits!
Status: In the Hunt

Northern Iowa (7-3; 5-2)

The win against Western Illinois on Saturday took Northern Iowa one step closer to a playoff berth that looked like a formality at the beginning of the season. Winning at Illinois State would get them there, although not by the route that they would have chosen.
Status: In the Hunt

Missouri State (6-5; 4-4) and Illinois State (5-5; 4-3)

With their losses on Saturday, both teams are unable to reach seven DI wins.
Status: Off the Board

Key games this week:

SEMO at Southern Illinois
The Salukis clinch a likely #2 seed with a win.

South Dakota State at Western Illinois
Jackrabbits dance with a win.

Northern Iowa at Illinois State
Panthers dance with a win.

Ohio Valley Conference

Eastern Illinois (8-2; 6-1)

With their win against Tennessee-Martin on Saturday, Eastern Illinois clinched the OVC auto-bid, given the postseason ineligibility of Jacksonville State. Computer numbers are not strong enough for seeding consideration.
Status: Lock

Eastern Kentucky (5-5; 5-2) and Tennessee Tech (5-5; 4-3)

With their losses on Saturday, both teams are unable to either reach seven DI wins, or take the OVC auto-bid.
Status: Off the Board

Patriot League

Holy Cross (9-1; 5-0)

Holy Cross held on to win on Saturday in their game against Lafayette, and clinched the Patriot League auto-bid. Computer numbers are not strong enough for seeding consideration.
Status: Lock

Lafayette (8-2; 4-1)
Lafayette is not COMPLETELY out of it. The bubble is soft enough this year that it is very possible that a 9-2 Patriot League team could receive an at-large bid. Be successful in THE RIVALRY. And start praying.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Colgate (9-2; 4-2)
The regular season is over for Colgate, as is their entire season in all likelihood, given their poor computer numbers. An at-large bid remains a remote possibility should Lafayette lose on Saturday and other stars align perfectly.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key game this week:

Lafayette at Lehigh
NUFF SAID

Southern Conference

Appalachian State (8-2; 7-0)
The more things change. . .you know the cliché. With their win at Elon on Saturday, the Mountaineers take their zillionth SOCON championship and auto-bid. With a win next Saturday against Western Carolina, they put themselves into the seeding conversation, with a likely debate over whether they are more deserving than a second team from the CAA.
Status: Lock

Elon (8-2; 6-1)
Elon were eliminated from auto-bid and seeding consideration with their loss on Saturday, but, with eight DI wins, have a safe at-large bid awaiting them even in the unlikely event of a loss on Saturday.
Status: Lock

Southland Conference

Stephen F. Austin (8-2; 5-1)
With the win at Southeastern Louisiana, the Lumberjacks are all but assured of a playoff spot; the only reason they are not moved into Lock status is that one of their wins came against a non-DI opponent. With a win against 0-10 Northwestern State next week, they take the Southland auto-bid.
Status: In the Hunt

McNeese State (8-2; 5-1)
The Cowboys can only take the Southland auto-bid should Stephen F. Austin lose on Saturday, but the good news is that a win on Saturday should give them an at-large bid given their strong computer numbers, aided by the early season victory over Appalachian State. A loss by another at-large contender would, however, be required for complete comfort. As with Stephen F. Austin, they do not move into Lock Status since one win came against a non-DI opponent.
Status: In the Hunt

Texas State (6-4; 4-2)
With the loss to McNeese State, Texas State is unable to reach seven DI wins. Should they win on Saturday, AND Stephen F. Austin and McNeese lose, we will have to research tie-breakers for the auto-bid since Texas State beat Stephen F. Austin, who beat McNeese State, who beat Texas State.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Southeastern Louisiana (6-4; 4-2)
With their loss on Saturday, the Lions are unable to reach seven DI wins, and are eliminated from contention for the Southland auto-bid.
Status: Off the Board

Key games this week:

Stephen F. Austin at Northwestern State
The Lumberjacks clinch the auto-bid with a win.

Central Arkansas at McNeese State
The Cowboys need a win to stay in at-large contention.

Other At-large Contenders

Liberty (8-2; 5-0)
Liberty reached seven DI wins on Saturday, but do not expect a make-up call by the committee this year, to make up for the injustice of last year. A win against Stony Brook next week will not help their numbers much.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Prairie View A&M (7-1; 7-0)
The Panthers continued their winning ways on Saturday, and posted their seventh DI win, but weak computer numbers and an incomplete schedule will likely mean that it is all for naught. But for a three point loss at New Mexico State it could have been a different story.
Status: Livin' on a Prayer

Central Connecticut State (8-2; 5-1)
A narrow win against Monmouth this week has kept the hopes of the Blue Devils alive. Emphasis on hopes. Prior losses to William & Mary and Wagner will mean a quick exit from the board. But no worries, a NEC auto-bid soon awaits.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Butler (9-1; 6-1)
Butler’s chances of an at-large berth are somewhere on par with the Yankees declaring unilateral disarmament in the Baseball spending wars, especially considering their bad loss to Jacksonville on Saturday.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #1

2009-11-12T15:06:00.009-05:00

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #3: Midweek Update and Predictions
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2009 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2009: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions

This will be a weekly feature until selection day. Comments, corrections, and (constructive) criticism are most welcome. Be mindful of the rules of engagement at this blog.

Locks (7): Elon; Montana; New Hampshire; Richmond; Southern Illinois; Villanova; William & Mary

In the Hunt ~~(14)~~ (13): Appalachian State; Eastern Illinois; Eastern Washington; Holy Cross; ~~Jacksonville State;~~ Lafayette; McNeese State; Montana State; Northern Iowa; South Carolina State; South Dakota State; Southeastern Louisiana; Stephen F. Austin; Texas State

Livin’ on a Prayer (14): Butler; Central Connecticut State; Colgate; Delaware; Eastern Kentucky; Florida A&M; Illinois State; Liberty; Massachusetts; Missouri State; Northern Arizona; Prairie View A&M; Tennessee Tech; Weber State

Auto Bid Conferences

Big Sky Conference

Montana (9-0; 6-0)

Montana survived a scare on Saturday, winning on a last second field goal versus an 0-9 Idaho State team that should not have even been in the same stadium. Despite this, they still find themselves on top of the Coaches Poll, and are now all but assured of taking the Big Sky auto-bid. Should that not occur, losing out would still leave them with an at-large bid given their 8 DI wins. Winning out should yield a seed.
Status: Lock

Eastern Washington (6-3; 5-2)

A narrow loss at Montana on October 17 took Eastern Washington out of the picture for an auto-bid, but winning out would leave them at 8-3, and, in all likelihood, with a at-large bid. The crunch game will occur on the final day of the season when they travel to Northern Arizona.
Status: In The Hunt

Montana State (6-3; 4-2)

As usual, Montana State’s playoff chances will come down to the final day of the season, when Montana comes knocking. Winning out would leave them at 8-3, and a shoe-in for an at-large spot. The auto-bid is still a possibility, but is highly unlikely.
Status: In the Hunt

Weber State (5-4; 5-2) and Northern Arizona (5-4; 4-2)

One thing is certain, One of these two teams will be out of the playoff picture after they play each other on Saturday. Winning out would leave each of these teams at 7-4, and not out of the picture given that 4 loss teams have received at-large bids in each of the last two seasons. Given close losses to FBS teams, Weber State would have a reasonable case.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key games this week:

Northern Colorado at Montana
Montana takes the auto-bid with a win.

Northern Arizona at Weber State
Elimination game.

Colonial Athletic Association

Richmond (8-1; 6-1)

Final-drive heroics by Villanova have spoiled the Spiders perfect season, but with eight DI wins under their belt, including the FBS scalp of Duke, the defending National Champions are assured of a playoff spot. They are one of four CAA teams with a serious shot at both the auto-bid and a seed.
Status: Lock

New Hampshire (8-1; 5-1)

Only a loss at long-time nemesis Massachusetts marks the record of the Wildcats, who, like Richmond, took down an FBS team, Ball State. If they win out, they have a chance at the auto-bid and seed, and would still back in to a at-large spot with two losses to close the season. The crunch game comes on Saturday versus William and Mary.
Status: Lock

Villanova (8-1; 5-1)

With the win over Richmond, most of Villanova’s heavy lifting is done for the season. They face a weak Towson team next week, and a tougher Delaware team on the final day. As with Richmond and New Hampshire, winning out yields the possibility of an auto-bid and seed, and losing out would still leave them with an at-large.
Status: Lock

William & Mary (8-1; 5-1)

William & Mary’s chances of perfect season came to an end versus Villanova in October, and now face the unenviable task of facing down New Hampshire and Richmond in their final two games of the season. Winning out would yield the possibility of an auto-bid and seed, but losing out would still them leave with an at-large, given the win against FBS Virginia.
Status: Lock

Delaware (6-3; 4-3)

Delaware’s chances for a playoff spot may have ended on the second weekend of the season, when they lost by a point against Richmond. To have a chance, they must now defeat both FBS Navy and Villanova on the road, and then hope that its seven DI wins are enough.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Masschusetts (5-4; 3-3)

What if Massachusetts had sealed the deal at Kansas State? What if Maine had not turned them Black and Blue? They would be optimistic about their hopes at a playoff spot. As it is, they must hope that they take care of business against James Madison and Hofstra, and that the committee will once again take a four-loss CAA team.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key games this week:

James Madison at Massachusetts
Massachusetts needs the win to stay alive.

UNH at William & Mary
On paper, the best FCS game of the week.

Delaware at Navy
Delaware needs an unlikely win to stay alive.

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

South Carolina State (6-0; 8-1)

The Bulldogs victory against Florida A&M on October 17 leaves them in the drivers seat for the MEAC auto-bid, which can be clinched with a win in either of their last two games.
Status: In the Hunt

Florida A&M (7-2; 5-1)

The Rattlers chances are all but cooked. They could still take the auto-bid if they win out, and South Carolina loses out. Winning out would leave them at 9-2, but probably without the computer numbers to warrant an at-large bid.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key games this week:

Morgan State at South Carolina State
South Carolina State takes the auto-bid with a win

Florida A&M at Hampton
Florida A&M keeps its slim hopes alive with a win.

Missouri Valley Football Conference

Southern Illinois (8-1; 7-0)

WOO HOO SALUKIS! The convincing win at South Dakota State earns Southern Illinois at least a share of the conference title, and also clinches the auto-bid by virtue of head-to-head record. Should they take down a good Missouri State on Saturday, and take care of business on the final day of the season, a seed awaits.
Status: Lock

South Dakota State (7-2; 6-1)

The loss to Southern Illinois still leaves two paths forward for South Dakota State to reach their first FCS playoffs. The first would involve an unlikely victory versus FBS Minnesota on Saturday. The second would involve taking down one-win Western Illinois on the road on the final day of the season. Brace yourself for dancing Jackrabbits!
Status: In the Hunt

Northern Iowa (6-3; 4-2)

This is not the season that would have been expected after nearly taking down a ranked FBS opponent on the first day of the season. Despite missteps, Northern Iowa can, however, book a spot in the playoffs should they take down a hapless Western Illinois team this weekend, and a tougher Illinois State team on the final day of the season.
Status: In the Hunt

Missouri State (6-4; 4-3) and Illinois State (5-4; 4-2)

A perfect end to the season for both these teams would leave them with a 7-4 record which, given the past two selections, would not leave them out of the picture entirely. Even that scenario seems unlikely, however, as Missouri State must travel to Southern Illinois, and Illinois State must host a Northern Iowa team which will be hungry.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key games this week:

South Dakota State at Minnesota
The Jackrabbits dance with a win.

Illinois State at Youngstown State
Illinois State is off the board with a loss.

Missouri State at Southern Illinois
Missouri State is off the board with a loss. A Southern Illinois win puts them one step closer to a seed.

Ohio Valley Conference

Eastern Illinois (7-2; 5-1)

Eastern Illinois is in the drivers seat in the OVC, thanks to their win at Jacksonville State on October 24. At least a share of the title, but, more importantly, the auto-bid, is theirs for the taking should they win out against middling opposition on the last two days of the season. Computer numbers are good enough to warrant at-large consideration with one more win.
Status: In the Hunt

Jacksonville State (6-3; 4-1)

The bad news for Jacksonville State is that their chances for the auto-bid are slim, and that they must face two tough opponents, Eastern Kentucky and Tennessee Tech, in their final two games of the season. The good news is that winning out would leave them at 8-3, with computer numbers even stronger than they are now, and an at-large bid.
Correction: Jacksonville State is ineligible for postseason play this year as a result of academic failures. Thanks to William for the Tip.
Status: ~~In the Hunt~~ Off the Board

Eastern Kentucky (5-4; 5-2) and Tennessee Tech (5-4; 4-2)

Both of these two teams would have to both win out, and have all stars align in their favor to take the OVC auto-bid. And lets face it, the OVC is not strong enough that 7-4 teams will be seriously considered for an at-large bid by the committee.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key games this week:

Tennessee Tech at Jacksonville State
Tech is off the board with a loss. This is step one of taking care of business for Jacksonville State

Western Carolina at Eastern Kentucky
Eastern is off the board with a loss.

Patriot League

Holy Cross (8-1; 4-0) and Lafayette (8-1; 4-0)
This is pretty simple. Win on Saturday, and take the auto-bid. Lose, and find yourself praying that the committee will overlook your weak schedule and let you in as a potentially 9-2 at-large team.
Status: In the Hunt

Colgate (8-2; 3-2)
The die for Colgate has essentially been cast by its weak OOC schedule, and the losses to Holy Cross and Lafayette. Winning against Bucknell on Saturday will do little to improve their computer numbers.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key game this week:

Lafayette at Holy Cross
Patriot League bragging rights on the line, not to mention an auto-bid.

Southern Conference

Elon (8-1; 6-0)
Elon missed the playoffs last season only because of their final day loss at Liberty. Whatever the results of their last two games this season, we should see them dancing this year. Winning out would leave them with a strong case for a seed.
Status: Lock

Appalachian State (7-2; 6-0)
With the exception of an uncharacteristic loss to McNeese State, it has been business as usual for Appalachian State this season. A seed may be out of reach even if they win out, winning on Saturday yields them an auto-bid, while losing but winning in their final game of the season would yield them an at-large bid.
Status: In the Hunt

Key game this week:
Appalachian State at Elon
SOCON bragging rights and an auto-bid on the line.

Southland Conference

Stephen F. Austin (7-2; 4-1) and McNeese State (7-2; 4-1)
Is the Southland Conference good this year? It could be. They are certainly showing enough signs of life that it could be a two-bid league. That would likely happen should both of these teams win out, which would give Stephen F. Austin the auto-bid based on head-to-head record, and McNeese State an at-large, mostly on the strength of their early-season victory over Appalachian State.
Status: In the Hunt

Southeastern Louisiana (6-3; 4-1) and Texas State (6-3; 4-1)
While at-large bids are likely out of reach for both these teams, both can keep their chances for an auto-bid alive with a win this weekend. Their opponents? Stephen F. Austin and McNeese State respectively.
Status: In the Hunt

Key games this week:

Stephen F. Austin at Southern Louisiana and McNeese State at Texas State
Louisiana and Texas go off the board with losses, while McNeese State and Stephen F. Austin march towards the playoffs with wins.

Other At-large Contenders

Liberty (7-2; 4-0)
Liberty were unjustly left out of the playoffs last year, despite a 10-2 record and a final game demolition of Elon. Unfortunately, their prospects are worse this year, given that they will only have one truly quality win, Lafayette, on their resume. Time to start praying for a make up call by the committee.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Central Connecticut State (7-2; 4-1)
Scheduling an all DI schedule, including Lehigh and William & Mary was a signal that the Blue Devils were not willing to wait for the NEC to get an auto-bid in order for them to make the playoffs. The loss to William & Mary dented those hopes, and the loss to Wagner on Saturday probably destroyed them.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Prairie View A&M (6-0; 6-1)
While the Panthers, and SWAC, will likely be left out again due to an incomplete schedule and lack of quality wins, it should be noted that they produced a FBS near miss, losing by only three points at New Mexico State.
Status: Livin' on a Prayer

Butler (9-0; 6-0)
Pioneer League representation in the playoffs? Better hope for an 11-0 record. And meaningful scheduling.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

"Aubrey got tangled, and his momentum carried him forward"

2009-01-25T13:16:00.009-05:00

Houston guard Aubrey Coleman joins the sad pantheon of college athletes doing the inexcusable in competition. The incident begins at 4:49 of the following video:

Houston coach Tom Penders responded to the incident as follows:

"I know Aubrey, and I have never seen him lose his temper or composure or anything."

Nor did he on this occasion. He appeared to coolly and deliberately stamp on an opponents face, and was, naturally and deservedly, ejected from the game.

"I'm just sorry the official interpreted it that way. The way I saw it, Aubrey got tangled, and his momentum carried him forward, and I think it was a mistake."

One wishes that this was a sarcastic comment from Penders. Should he not see the light, then it is up to Conference USA to hit Coleman with a lengthy suspension. As for the stampee Chase Budinger, he got the last laugh despite getting charged with a technical foul for his reaction. Arizona won the game 96-90 in overtime.

Update 6:29 PM

Coleman has issued a non-apology which does not pass the snicker test, and Penders is standing by his player:

"I want to apologize to Chase Budinger for what happened Saturday night. I never meant to step on him," Coleman said. "I have never been in an incident like this before, and I have nothing but respect for him as a great player."
"I love the game too much to do something like that intentionally. I want to say I am sorry from the bottom of my heart. I know that God knows what is in my heart, but I am hopeful that Chase will understand and forgive." . . .
Like his player, head coach Tom Penders said he regretted the incident but felt confident Coleman did not intentionally step on Budinger.
"Aubrey is one of the finest kids, both on the floor and off the floor, that I have had the privilege to coach," Penders said. "I know that he regrets the situation, but he is an exemplary student-athlete in all ways, shapes and forms."
Penders said he and his staff would work with director of athletics Dave Maggard and Athletics Department administrators to further review the incident carefully.

Update (2) 7:12 PM Monday

CUSA has suspended Coleman for a grand total of 1 game. What a joke.

Update (3) 10:40 Monday

Houston Director of Athletics Dave Maggard completes the Epic Fail:

"During his career at UH, Aubrey has never been involved in an incident that could question his respect for this game," director of athletics Dave Maggard said. "He has apologized to Chase Budinger for what occurred, and Conference USA officials have taken action regarding this matter."
"The University of Houston has always and will continue to uphold the highest levels of sportsmanship in every respect. We apologize to the University of Arizona, its basketball team and to the Tucson community for what occurred Saturday evening. Aubrey will be suspended for Wednesday night's game, and we now consider the matter to be closed."

Update (4) 7:41 PM Wednesday

I made a mistake on Monday by proclaiming this story completed. Both Penders and Coleman have been unable to keep their mouths shut, the result being that Penders is coming across as a bigger ***, and Coleman as a bigger fool.

Penders has claimed that video of the incident was 'doctored' by ESPN. Decide for yourself:

Go here for the audio. But the most ridiculous indication that both Penders and Coleman need to return to the reality-based world is that fact that both are now claiming that Coleman did not make contact with Budinger's face:

"He attempted to step over Chase; at no time did he mean to hurt the kid," Penders said. "It's clear on the replay that he never touches his face, but his shoulder."
Coleman said he thought Budinger was flopping on the play. He said he thought it was going to be a block, not a charge. He said he looked up, reacted, and then "I tried to step over him. He knows it was his shoulder. I even rolled my ankle [trying to avoid] him. I wanted to see if he was OK, but he was up on me," he said.

Yep folks, Coleman's only concern was the safety of his stampee. On a more serious note, ESPN is reporting that Coleman has been the target of harassing e-mails, including racial slurs:

Houston coach Tom Penders said that Coleman, and members of the team, have been getting "very ugly" e-mails over the incident. "There's been a lot of racial slurs," said Coleman, who is black. Budinger is white. "It's crazy. I saved the e-mails. I haven't been contacted, but I do know the police and the FBI were at the practices to make sure everything was safe."

This is contemptible behavior, and if the FBI is indeed investigating, may god speed their inquiries.

FCS Playoffs 2008: Results, Final Prediction, and FBS comment

2008-12-14T17:08:00.003-05:00

Semifinals Results

Montana 35 James Madison 27

Forget the injury to Rodney Landers. Forget the imbroglio surrounding the video reviews in the last minutes of the game. They did not matter, nor did the fact that Montana was out-gained by more than 100 yards. What did? It was a simple matter of execution by the Grizzlies on both sides of the ball in crucial moments in the game. On the offensive side, Montana went 8-12 on third down conversions, and scored all four times they entered the red zone. On the defensive side, Montana forced four turnovers, including two in the red zone. The Dukes will be kicking themselves for this one for quite some time. Here is a recap:

Montana (14-1) won its 10th straight, forcing four turnovers and twice turning James Madison’s fumbles on kickoffs into demoralizingly short, easy touchdown drives.
“This is the first time in my 32 years in coaching that I’ve been in a game where we never punted and we lost,” Dukes coach Mickey Matthews said. “I’ve never heard of that.”
The Dukes (12-2), who rose to No. 1 in the nation after beating three-time defending champion Appalachian State in September, lost Walter Payton Award finalist Landers to a right ankle sprain late in the second quarter while already trailing 14-10. James Madison never recovered, in part because it was as inept immediately after halftime as before.
“That’s something that we haven’t done all year,” said Landers, who fumbled once.
The Dukes did make it interesting, having the ball in the final 2 minutes needing a touchdown and 2-point conversion, but their drive ended on a fourth-and-20 incompletion.
Montana drove 56 yards in seven plays after the opening kickoff of the second half, Bergquist rolling left and throwing across the field to Reynolds at the goal line on the right, a 27-yard touchdown that made it 21-10. It was Reynolds’ third touchdown of the game and school-record 22nd of the season, and the first for the sophomore on a reception.
On the ensuing kickoff, Patrick Ward fumbled for James Madison and Ryan Fetherston recovered for Montana at the JMU 34, the second lost fumble on a kickoff for the Dukes. Five plays later, Bergquist hit Steven Pfahler from 16 yards, Pfahler’s first career TD catch.

Richmond 21 Northern Iowa 20

A 62 yard winning touchdown drive in the final two minutes is precisely what we have come to expect in the Dome. What was not expected was that it would come from the Spiders. And with that, the Curse of the Dome is lifted. It is clear that magic can happen there for teams other than the Panthers, and Richmond does one better than last year, and advances to the finals.

Eric Ward and the Richmond Spiders never doubted, never wavered.
Down 20-7 going into the fourth quarter? Well, get some stops on defense and start moving on offense.
Which is just what they did.
Eric Ward threw a 13-yard touchdown pass to Joe Stewart with 14 seconds left and Andrew Howard kicked the extra point, giving Richmond a 21-20 victory over Northern Iowa on Saturday and sending the Spiders to the Football Championship Subdivision title game. . . .
The unseeded Spiders beat second-seeded Appalachian State in the quarterfinals before knocking off third-seeded Northern Iowa (12-3), which was seeking its second trip to the championship game in four years.
“A lot of people said you guys don’t belong here,” first-year Richmond coach Mike London said. “I think we belong. In the first three rounds we played conference champions. This is a significant accomplishment for these players.”
Richmond started the winning drive at its own 38 with 1:44 remaining and no timeouts left. Ward completed six passes in the march, including a 4-yarder to Shawn White on fourth-and-2 at the UNI 26—White’s only catch of the game.

Prediction success this week: 1/2 (Once again, as good as a monkey with a dartboard.)

Final Prediction

So how many of you who are not homers would have predicted these two teams to advance to the finals? I am certainly not one of them. Montana has put all the East Coast muttering about their being overrated to rest, and they find themselves in a familiar position, playing for the National Championship. Richmond, should they win, will have taken the most difficult path possible through the playoffs. They have already knocked off the #2 and #3 seeds, and now faced the #4 seed in the finals. So who to choose?

The teams had one common opponent, James Madison. Montana beat them by a touchdown on the road, while Richmond lost to the Dukes by a touchdown at home. Advantage Montana? Richmond, however, overcame a turnover, and it still required a last second score by James Madison to take the win. Richmond, as well, slightly out-gained the Dukes, unlike Montana, who won on the scoreboard, but lagged James Madison in yards gained. Furthermore, Richmond will travel with a large number of players who were last years national semifinal, so I am picking the Spiders to take home the National Championship.

FBS Comment

Lets try a thought experiment. What if the FCS worked like the FBS? Who would have been in the championship game? Who would have been in the bowls? Who would have been left out? Here, as far as I can tell, is how things would have panned out:

National Championship: Appalachian State vs. James Madison
Rose Bowl: Southern Illinois vs. Weber State
Orange Bowl: Colgate vs. Villanova
Sugar Bowl: Cal Poly vs. Wofford
Fiesta Bowl: Montana vs. Texas State

Note what would have happened here. Teams that bowed out in the quarterfinals and semifinals would have played for the championship. And note that not only is Northern Iowa missing from the mix, but so is Richmond. Sorry, no third school from the CAA is welcome!

This underlines the value of actually letting things be determined where it SHOULD count. On the playing field. Its high time for the NCAA to set up an alternative to the bowl system. Give all conference winners an automatic berth to a fully seeded 16-team playoff, and allow for five at-large bids with no conference restrictions. Would the bowls survive? The important ones. It should be noted that the best attended FCS game this year, as always, will not be the championship game. Back on November 29 there was the small matter of the Bayou Classic. . .

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #3
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #4
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2008 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2008: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Quarterfinals Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Semifinals Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results, Final Prediction, and FBS comment

FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Semifinals Predictions

2008-12-07T11:33:00.005-05:00

Quarterfinals Results

Richmond 33 Appalachian State 13

WOW. Who would have thunk it? Not many beyond the Richmond locker room certainly! This more or less sums things up:

The Mountaineers (11-3) finished with seven turnovers, as standout quarterback Armanti Edwards threw five interceptions in a game after never throwing more than two in one day before. . . .
The Spiders' defense had been shutting down running games for weeks. Six straight opponents had been held under 100 yards. ASU was No.7, gaining 39 yards on 23 carries.

On the other hand, Richmond used 6-foot, 232-pound running back Josh Vaughan to batter the Appalachian defense. The Spiders rushed for 238 yards, with Vaughan crashing forward for 133.

It was really rather straightforward. The visitors stopped the run, ran effectively themselves and didn't make mistakes (no turnovers) while the home team did.

Weber State 13 Montana 24

Meanwhile, Montana was making members of its own fan base look foolish:

MISSOULA — Perhaps you heard this remark from a University of Montana football fan last week:

"There's no way Montana can beat Weber State unless the Grizzlies get their heads out of their dens and score 35 points."
Or maybe this one:
"There's no way Montana can hold Weber State's offense to less than three touchdowns."
Oops! Twenty-four points looked pretty imposing on the UM side of the scoreboard Saturday afternoon.
Oops! Thirteen points on the Weber side of the scoreboard wasn't a typographical error, was it?
No, it wasn't. The only error made by Griz fans was in underestimating the strength and resiliency of the UM defense, which held the Wildcats 24 points under their season average.
And more importantly, the Griz held the Wildcats to 32 fewer points than they scored Oct. 4 in a victory against Montana.

Should we be surprised? No.

Villanova 27 James Madison 31

The Dukes and Wildcats did it again. Same plot. Not quite as dramatic. Bigger stakes. One helluva football game. And more grudges for Villanova to chew on:

Landers threw for 157 yards and three touchdowns and ran for 143 yards and the game-winning 1-yard score. On that clinching drive, JMU chewed up 5 minutes and 16 seconds on 11 plays, leaving Villanova with only 1:38 to mount a comeback.
That hope ended when Villanova quarterback Chris Whitney was intercepted at midfield by safety Marcus Haywood with 40 seconds remaining, allowing James Madison to run out the clock.
Villanova finished 10-3, with two of those losses coming against JMU (12-1). The Dukes won the previous game, 23-19, on a Hail Mary pass. JMU will play Montana on Saturday in one of the Division I-AA semifinals.
Villanova got the short end of two controversial calls. Wildcats defensive back Ross Vetrone appeared to intercept a jump-ball pass from Landers to tight end Mike Caussin in the end zone, but officials ruled that Caussin had possession. Receiver Phil Atkinson fumbled to set up JMU's second touchdown, but replays appeared to show that Atkinson was down before he fumbled, and that a Dukes player pulled his face mask in the process.

It should be quite a game next fall!

New Hampshire 34 Northern Iowa 36

The game was not decided until the final seconds, but the Curse of the Dome lives on, helped by sloppy play from the Wildcats:

The Panthers (12-2) needed a stop on New Hampshire's final possession as the Wildcats (10-3) moved into position for a possible game-winning field goal. There wasn't a comfortable stomach in the house, except possibly for James Ruffin's.

Ruffin, the Missouri Valley Conference Defensive Player of the Year, sacked New Hampshire quarterback R.J. Toman for a 7-yard loss, giving the Wildcats a fourth-and-9 predicament at their own 38 with 73 seconds left.

Toman had an open receiver on the next play, but he threw the ball too high for T.J. Wright, and the celebration began. . . .

Northern Iowa's defense forced six turnovers, including four interceptions, but the Panthers had problems of their own. Grace lost a fumble at the New Hampshire 6-yard line late in the first half, then threw an interception on UNI's next possession that was returned 100 yards for a touchdown on the final play of the half by John Clements that gave the Wildcats a 27-26 lead with the PAT.

"It was a careless interception," Grace said. "Thank goodness the defense played awesome all day."

Grace responded by leading UNI on a 39-yard drive on the first possession of the third quarter, leading to a 35-yard field goal by Billy Hallgren that gave the Panthers a 29-27 lead. They held on to the end, but just barely.

Terrell McMoore made a huge play for the Panthers when he intercepted a pass by Toman and raced 36 yards for a touchdown that gave UNI a 36-27 lead with 2:26 left in the third period.

Prediction success this week: 2/4 (In other words, as good as a monkey with a dartboard.)

Semifinals Predictions

#4 Montana at #1 James Madison

This is a fairly easy call, despite the two close escapes by the Dukes in the playoffs this year. Why? No other FCS team has played so well against top opposition this year. They beat the defending national champion, Appalachian State, and the other SOCON standout this year, Wofford. They shut down Maine on the road. They beat fellow CAA semifinalist Richmond by a touchdown on the road. The two wins against Villanova establish that they play cool even when requiring scoring drives in the final minutes. No disrespect to the Grizzlies, but James Madison is way too good this year.

Richmond at #3 Northern Iowa

This is a tougher call. Both teams won on Saturday in large part as a consequence of errors by their opponents. Richmond, however, posted a resounding victory, on the road at the defending national champions. Northern Iowa squeaked it out, at home, against a very fine New Hampshire team which, realistically, is not on the same level as Appalachian State. Just as the Spiders ended the playoff streak of the Mountaineers, they should go on to exorcise the Curse of the Dome, and set up an all-CAA final.

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #3
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #4
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2008 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2008: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Quarterfinals Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Semifinals Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results, Final Prediction, and FBS comment

FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Quarterfinals Predictions

2008-11-30T12:15:00.003-05:00

Faculty Athletic Representatives Roused into Action?

2008-11-24T15:51:00.000-05:00

Yes, occasionally the NCAA proposes something so outrageous, in this case softening academic demands on men's basketball programs, that it happens, as reported by Doug Lederman at Inside Higher Ed:

“The general feeling [of faculty athletics representatives] is that some of what’s in the early stages of the document takes the approach of fixing the APR by tinkering with the matrix instead of getting substantively at why the APR is low in the first place,” said Josephine R. Potuto, the Richard H. Larson Professor of Constitutional Law and faculty representative at the University of Nebraska at Lincoln, who heads a group of faculty representatives from NCAA Division I-A universities that wrote to NCAA leaders last week. “The predominant if not exclusive focus should be on the root causes, not on the APR.” . . .

Faculty athletics representatives from the Pacific-10 Conference, in a November 3 letter to Myles Brand and Dan Guerrero, the athletics director at the University of California at Los Angeles who heads the basketball academic enhancement group, said the problem isn’t that basketball players as a group are less academically prepared, but that the players many Division I colleges have historically chosen to recruit and admit are less prepared for academic success.
“Now, faced with academic penalties as a consequence of such recruitment practices, these programs seek to blame the students they recruited for the lack of success they have experienced,” the Pac-10 faculty leaders write. “[W]e are concerned that this opening statement ... is really meant to provide a justification for recommendations ... that would reduce the impact of the NCAA’s Academic Performance Program ... on men’s basketball.” . . .
The basketball working group’s report does offer several substantive proposals aimed at bolstering the academic performance of basketball players once they’re in college, including performing adequately in several credit hours of required summer school.
But its report focuses heavily on a set of changes that would limit the pain that teams feel when their players fail to make progress toward a degree. One would grant exceptions so that teams would not be punished under the Academic Progress Rate when athletes leave a college because of a coaching change. Another would give teams an extra point when a player graduates early (perhaps making up for points they’ve lost because players haven’t graduated at all). Yet another would provide more leeway (some if already granted) if players leave college early to go pro.

In other words, the proposals would serve to further enable behavior which, with the exception of quick graduation, the NCAA should be discouraging. Progression please Myles, not regression.

Grats to the Lady Eagles/Graduation Rates

2008-11-24T14:19:00.000-05:00

Many congratulations to the Lady Eagles of Emory University on their 16-25, 25-21, 25-17, 25-22 win over the University of La Verne in the finals of the DIII volleyball championships on Saturday night. Senior middle hitter Dani Huffman led the team with 13 kills, 4 blocks, and 4 digs, and was named the Most Outstanding Player of the tournament. Freshman setter Natalie Schonefeld, who posted 47 assists, and freshman outside hitter Alexandra Wright, who scored 11 kills, joined her on the all-tournament team. Crista Jones and Brianna Gonzales of the University of La Verne, Liz Schnelle of Ohio Northern, and Erin Albert of Juniata also received all-tournament honors.

Specific graduation rates are not available for non-scholarship Division III schools, but Emory students as a whole post one of the best graduation rates in the country at 87%. Semifinalist Juniata comes close at 78%, while Ohio Northern, at 65%, and La Verne, at 51%, lag behind. So yet again. Are success on the court and in the classroom compatible with each other? Absolutely!

Links to USA Today Special Report

2008-11-24T13:42:00.000-05:00

There was an excellent series of reports at USA today last week on the demands, stresses, and problems inherent in intercollegiate athletics. This sort of journalism validates the necessity of and active press - there is only so much that a blogger can accomplish. Read away!

College athletes studies guided towards 'major in elibigility'

My comments here.

Same team, same major

This illustrates the widespread existence of major clusters, which the NCAA used to claim were not widespread, and now claim are not a problem.

'You could consider football a full-time job'

This story, and the accompanying video, follows a day in the life of model STUDENT-athlete and Illinois center Ryan McDonald.

Athletes' academic choices put advisers in tough balancing act

This story exposes the problems in the academic advising system for athletes. It would not be so much of a problem if most advisers did not report to the Athletic Director. . .

UNLV athletes question degrees in university studies

Some Universities are issuing degrees which their recipients are embarrassed of. YIKES!

Thank You to My Readers!

2008-11-24T13:10:00.000-05:00

Yesterday was a landmark day for Profane. I went into it guessing that there would be 1000 visitors in a day for the first time. It turned out that there was a 1000 visit hour, and nearly 4000 visits over the course of the day. The FCS championships are endless fun, but I hope all of you will stick around and join me in considering the serious purpose of this blog - making intercollegiate athletics better. Best wishes!

FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions

2008-11-23T20:01:00.011-05:00

FCS Playoffs 2008: Bracket Projection

2008-11-22T20:39:00.006-05:00

FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2008 Playoffs

2008-11-22T13:27:00.049-05:00

FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #4: Midweek Update and Predictions

2008-11-19T18:23:00.006-05:00

Grats to the Lady Huskies/Graduation Data

2008-11-19T14:13:00.000-05:00

Congratulations to the Lady Huskies of Bloomsburg on taking their third straight Division II field hockey title, and their sixth in the last seven years, by defeating 6-2 on Sunday the Lady River Hawks of UMass-Lowell, who were the 2005 champions and last years' defeated finalist. Senior Jamie Vanartsdalen, who scored two goals in the finals last year, bested that performance by scoring three goals and assisting on one other. Over the course of the season, she scored 40 goals and posted 22 assists, which bested the DII record which she set last year, and she was named Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference field hockey athlete of the year for the second year running. Maggey Bloskey, Chelsea Due, and Ashley Miller rounded out the scoring for the Huskies, while Jaci Moulton and and Missy Seeley added the goals for the River Hawks. This also marks the fifteenth national title in field hockey for head coach Jan Hutchinson.

Bloomsburg also posts a 70% graduation rate in women's sports other than basketball, cross country, and track. Their final four rivals have even better numbers. Defeated finalist UMass-Lowell posts a 81% graduation rate, with semi-finalists Shippensburg and Bentley coming it at 82% and 91% respectively. Once again, there is clear evidence that academic and on-field success are not mutually exclusive. Many congratulations to all of the fine STUDENT-athletes who participated.

"A major in eligibility, with a minor in beating the system"

2008-11-19T13:33:00.002-05:00

This sums up the academic atmosphere for all too many NCAA student-athletes today, as exposed in some excellent investigative journalism by USA Today. The entire series of articles is in the must-read category. Here are some of the most telling passages from the central piece:

Steven Cline left Kansas State University last spring with memories of two years as a starting defensive lineman for a major-college football team. He left with a diploma, credits toward a master's degree and a place on the 2007 Big 12 Conference all-academic team.

He also left with regrets about accomplishing all of this by majoring in social sciences — a program that drew 34% of the football team's juniors and seniors last season, compared with about 4% of all juniors and seniors at Kansas State. Cline says he found not-so-demanding courses that helped him have success in the classroom and on the field but did little for his dream of becoming a veterinarian. . . .
His experience reflects how the NCAA's toughening of academic requirements for athletes has helped create an environment in which they are more likely to graduate than other students — but also more likely to be clustered in programs without the academic demands most students face.
Some athletes say they have pursued — or have been steered to — degree programs that helped keep them eligible for sports but didn't prepare them for post-sports careers.

"A major in eligibility, with a minor in beating the system," says C. Keith Harrison, an associate professor at the University of Central Florida, where he is associate director of the Institute of Diversity and Ethics in Sports.

Note that NCAA President Myles Brand wrote quite recently:

Across the spectrum of Division I, there is little evidence of "clustering," or disproportionate numbers of student-athletes in certain majors.

Let me be clear! You can find examples of football or men's basketball programs with unacceptably low graduation rates. You can also find teams where unexplainably large numbers of football or men's basketball athletes are clustered in certain majors.

The USA Today report explodes Brand's talking point:

A USA TODAY study of the majors of juniors and seniors in five prominent sports at 142 of the NCAA's top-level schools shows athletes at many institutions clustering in certain majors, in some cases at rates highly disproportionate to those of all students.
The study involved the fall 2007 student rolls and the 2007-08 rosters for Division I teams in five sports — football, men's basketball, women's basketball, baseball and softball.

All 120 schools in the Football Bowl Subdivision (formerly Division I-A) were included, as were 22 other Division I schools with standout men's or women's basketball teams. Nearly 9,300 athletes across 654 teams were covered by the study. Among the findings:

•83% of the schools (118 of 142) had at least one team in which at least 25% of the juniors and seniors majored in the same thing. For example, seven of the 19 players on Stanford's baseball team majored in sociology.

•34% of the teams (222 of 654) had at least one such cluster of student-athletes.

•More than half of the clusters are what some analysts refer to as "extreme," in which at least 40% of athletes on a team are in the same major (125 of 235). All seven of the juniors and seniors on Texas-El Paso's men's basketball team majored in multidisciplinary studies, for example. . . .

Brand's response?

"Clustering by itself is replicated in many parts of the university. It's not necessarily bad," NCAA President Myles Brand says.

Ah, what an excellent rhetorical shift Myles. When the evidence shows that it is a widespread issue, just claim that it is not a problem. Or, sort of a problem. Maybe:

"But when you have extreme clustering … you really do have to ask some hard questions: Is there an adviser who's pushing students into this? Are there some faculty members who are too friendly with student-athletes? I'm not saying that's the case. But I think you have to ask those questions."

The NCAA is going to get on this immediately. Right?

Brand adds that it's up to each school to do so. "There are limits to what the national office can, and should, do," he says. "Anything to do with the academic programs really falls entirely within the purview of the individual institutions." . . .

Silly me for asking the question - way to pass the buck Myles. Where are the students left in all of this?

"There's a mixed message being sent out here" about the importance of academics in college sports, Georgia Tech men's basketball coach Paul Hewitt said in June before the Knight Foundation Commission on Intercollegiate Athletics.

Several athletes echo Hewitt's sentiments.

Former Boise State safety Marty Tadman was among the 48% of the football team's juniors and seniors majoring in communication during the 2007-08 academic year. Boise State's communication program also drew 50% of the juniors and seniors on the men's basketball and women's basketball teams.

"You hear which majors, and which classes, are the easiest and you take them," Tadman says. "You're going to school so you can stay in sports. You're not going for a degree. … It's a joke." . . .

This is, in part, a consequence of the law of unintended consequences:

There also is a new NCAA rule that threatens penalties for teams with too many players who become academically ineligible or fail to graduate. Based on their annually published Academic Progress Rate (APR), teams can lose scholarships and eventually become ineligible for postseason play, either of which can embarrass a school and affect a team's ability to win.

Hewitt, the Georgia Tech men's basketball coach, bluntly articulated many coaches' view of the "unintended consequences" of the APR system at the Knight Commission meeting in June. He said then that when an NCAA official came to the Atlantic Coast Conference meetings four years ago to discuss the APR system, "almost every coach said: 'You understand what you're basically telling us. We're going to encourage our kids to take the easiest path to eligibility.'

"So if I'm at a Georgia Tech, I'm not going to tell a young man he can't major in engineering," Hewitt said. "But I certainly will counsel him before he takes that first class that … if you decide to go down this road and for some reason you find it harder than you expected and you decide to change your major, you're probably more than likely going to end up being ineligible" for sports.

Why not recruit more players with the capacity to both major in engineering and play basketball? Its not like they are not out there. The truth is that they would do nothing for Hewitt's job security. This will remain the case so long as coaches are rewarded for teams successful in competition but incompetent in the classroom, but get fired for graduating players at high rates while posting mediocre records.

FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #3

2008-11-15T23:19:00.012-05:00

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #3
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #4
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2008 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2008: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Quarterfinals Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Semifinals Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results, Final Prediction, and FBS comment

This will be a weekly feature until selection day. Comments, corrections, and (constructive) criticism are most welcome. I will post a mid-week update with a full seeding discussion after the release of the polls and the GPI.

Seeds (2): James Madison; Montana

Locks (9): Appalachian State; Cal Poly; New Hampshire; Northern Iowa; South Carolina State; Southern Illinois; Villanova; Weber State; Wofford

In the Hunt (12): Colgate; Eastern Kentucky; Elon; Holy Cross; Liberty; Maine; McNeese State; Richmond; Tennessee-Martin; Tennessee State; Texas State; William & Mary

Livin’ on a Prayer (7): Albany; Bethune-Cookman; Furman; Jacksonville State; Lafayette; Northwestern State; Prairie View A&M

Off the Board: Dayton; Massachusetts; Montana State; Morgan State; Nicholls State; South Dakota State; Sam Houston State; Stephen F. Austin

Auto Bid Conferences

Big Sky Conference

A surprise at the top.

Weber State (9-2; 6-0)
Their 59-27 win over Idaho State last week clinched the Big Sky auto-bid for the Wildcats. With a win against Montana under their belt, finishing the season with a win against Eastern Washington on Saturday would give them a 10-2 record and a shot at a top four seed.
Status: Lock

Montana (10-1; 6-1)
While the Grizzlies chance for the Big-Sky auto-bid are long gone, they are still very much in the running for a seed. They confirmed this Saturday with a comfortable 29-10 victory over Big Sky cellar dweller Idaho State. A seed would be locked up with a win against Montana State next weekend, but 10 wins in a top conference looks like the threshold this year.
Status: Seed

Montana State (7-4; 5-2)
My compatriots at Valley Talk pointed out that the Bobcats’ win against South Dakota does not count as a Division 1 win, since the Coyotes are in their first year transition to Division I. As such, they cannot reach seven DI wins, and are off the board despite their victory against Portland State on Saturday.
Status: Off the Board

Colonial Athletic Association

Once again this year, the CAA is both the biggest and baddest conference, with six of its twelve teams still alive in the playoff hunt.

James Madison (9-1; 7-0)
The Dukes reminded us why they are consensus #1 FCS team in the country when they demolished an excellent William & Mary team on Saturday. This clinches the CAA auto-bid. Given that they only lost to FBS Duke and they face CAA cellar-dweller Towson next Saturday, the #1 seeds looks likely.
Status: Seed

Villanova (8-2; 6-1)
The Wildcats faced a much tougher challenge than expected from a visiting Towson team on Saturday, but escaped with a 34-31 win and move into lock status. Should they emerge from a visit to Delaware victorious next Saturday they should be in the conversation for the #4 seed, but they will need some slip-ups from other contenders for that to be a realistic hope.
Status: Lock

New Hampshire (8-2; 5-2)
The Wildcats thumped, by a score of 52-21, what turned out to be a very disappointing Massachusetts team on Saturday, and move into lock status. They face a tough Maine team on the road next Saturday who will be looking for a win to clinch an at-large bid. Last week, I prematurely pronounced the end of the seed hopes, but a win at Maine would leave them at 9-2, with an FBS win and a good shot at the #4 seed.
Status: Lock

Maine (8-3; 5-2)
It has been too long since the Black Bears of my home state have made it to the playoffs, but their 37-7 win at Rhode Island on Saturday leaves them one win away from returning. Their task? Take down a New Hampshire squad gunning for a seed. If they win the Bears are in. If they lose, they will be sweating things out on selection day with an 8-4 record.
Status: In the Hunt

Richmond (8-3; 5-2)
The Spiders posted a solid win against Delaware on Saturday, and, like Maine, need one more win to lock up an at-large bid. They must, however, win on the road at William & Mary to pull this off. If they win, they are in. If they lose, they would join Maine in sweating out selection day with an 8-4 record.
Status: In the Hunt

William & Mary (7-3; 5-2)
Prior to the loss to James Madison on Saturday, the Tribe still had a shot at the CAA auto-bid, but now face a visit from Richmond next weekend in what may be an elimination game. Win and they are in. Lose, and they are 7-4 and hoping for a miracle.
Status: In the Hunt

Massachusetts (6-5; 3-4)
Back to back losses to northern New England rivals Maine and New Hampshire have blown up the playoff hopes of the Minutemen.
Status: Off the Board

Key games this week:

Richmond at William & Mary
The winner locks up an at-large bid while the loser will likely stay home.

New Hampshire at Maine
New Hampshire is in, but needs a win to stay in the seeding conversation, while Maine needs a win to lock up an at-large bid.

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

South Carolina State (9-2; 7-0)
The Bulldogs clinched the MEAC auto-bid by blanking Morgan State on the road 32-0. Their lack of out of conference wins means they are not in the seeding conversation.
Status: Lock

Bethune-Cookman (8-2; 5-2)
The Wildcats stay on the board, barely, by surviving Howard 14-12 at home. If they win at Florida A&M next Saturday they will finish 9-2, and will be in the conversation for one of the final at-large bids. In all likelihood, however, that will got to an 8-3 or 8-4 team from a stronger conference.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Morgan State (6-5; 4-3)
The loss to South Carolina State on Saturday ended the slim chance which the Bears had for the MEAC auto-bid.
Status: Off the Board

Missouri Valley

The new-look MVFC has become a black and blue conference with the addition of both South and North Dakota State, but both newcomers are now out of the picture.

Northern Iowa (9-2; 7-1)
The Panthers finished their MVFC by blanking Indiana State 28-0, and face a Southern Utah team in the final week which is not quite as hapless as last years’ incarnation. Should they win, they will be 10-2 and in the conversation for a seed. Even with an unlikely loss, they have locked up an at-large bid.
Status: Lock

Southern Illinois (8-2; 6-1)
In a battle of mascots, a Saluki is a clear winner over a Jackrabbit. On the field, the Dawgs escaped with another close home victory in a game which clinches their playoff spot. Even if they do not hand Illinois State an expected loss and take the MVFC auto-bid, an at-large bid will be in the offing. Even if they do win, however, a seed looks unlikely given that Southern Illinois has not defeated an opponent with a winning record on the road this year.
Status: Lock

South Dakota State (6-5; 5-2)
With the loss at Southern Illinois, the chances of an MVFC auto-bid, and a playoff spot, evaporated for the JackRabbits.
Status: Off the Board

Ohio Valley Conference

Although chaos was looming as in past years, the race for the OVC auto-bid is now clear cut.

Tennessee-Martin (8-3; 6-1)
After winning at Southeast Missouri on Saturday, things are clear cut for the Skyhawks. If they take down visiting Eastern Kentucky on Saturday, they take the OVC auto-bid. If they lose, they only have six DI wins and will say home.
Status: In the Hunt

Eastern Kentucky (7-3; 6-1)
The Colonels continued their winning streak on Saturday by easily handling a visiting team from Murray State. Their reward is a shot at the OVC auto-bid when they visit Tennessee-Martin next Saturday. If they lose, they will be 7-4 with seven DI wins, but in all likelihood seeing the final at-large spots going to teams from stronger conferences.
Status: In the Hunt

Tennessee State (8-3; 5-2)
Jacksonville State spoiled the Tigers chances for the OVC auto-bid by defeating them 26-21 on Saturday. Closing out their regular season with a win at Murray State would leave them at 9-3, and in the conversation for one of the final at-large bids given that Tennessee State played a 100% DI schedule.
Status: In the Hunt

Jacksonville State (8-3; 5-2)
The Gamecocks did what they needed to do by taking down Tennessee State on Saturday, and have qualified for at-large consideration, but have in all likelihood played their last game of the season.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key game this week:

Eastern Kentucky at Tennessee-Martin
The final showdown for the OVC title and auto-bid.

Patriot League

As with the OVC, the computer numbers may not be strong enough for an at-large bid, but the conference title is still wide open.

Holy Cross (7-3; 5-0)
The Crusaders won a thrilling 27-26 victory over Lafayette on Saturday and kept their Patriot League auto-bid hopes alive. They face the daunting task of visiting Colgate next Saturday in a final showdown for the auto-bid, but a loss would leave them at 7-4 – not strong enough for serious at-large consideration.
Status: In the Hunt

Colgate (8-2; 4-0)
The Raiders had the luxury to rest up this week in preparation for next weeks’ showdown with Holy Cross. If they win, they are in they playoffs with the auto-bid. If they lose they will be sweating things out with an 8-3 record and praying for one of the final at-large bids.
Status: In the Hunt

Lafayette (7-3; 3-2)
The Leopards say their auto-bid chances evaporate last weekend, and in all likelihood saw their at-large chances evaporate this weekend with the loss to Holy Cross. A win in the traditional season-ending showdown with Lehigh would leave them at 8-3, but in all likelihood on the outside looking in when the at-large bids are handed out.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key game this week:

Holy Cross at Colgate
The final showdown for the Patriot League title and auto-bid.

Southern Conference

There is a familiar sight at the top, with three other teams still in contention for at-large bids.

Appalachian State (9-2; 7-0)
The Mountaineers locked up the SOCON by defeating rival Elon in a tight 24-16 game. Should they close out their regular season with an expected win against Western Carolina, they will likely take a seed, but will be considered alongside teams like Cal Poly, New Hampshire, Northern Iowa, and Weber State should those teams take their final games as well.
Status: Lock

Wofford (8-2; 6-1)
While the Terriers chance for the SOCON auto-bid have come and gone, they locked up an at-large bid on Saturday with their road win against Samford. Next weekend, they will be visited by a Furman team that will be desperate to salvage their playoff hopes.
Status: Lock

Elon (8-3; 6-2)
The Phoenix failed to take down Appalachian State on the road on Saturday, and now must defeat a visiting Liberty team to book their place in the playoffs. Liberty is gunning for an at-large spot as well, so this game will be no formality.
Status: In the Hunt

Furman (7-4; 4-3)
The playoff hopes of the Paladins have been shredded over the past three weeks, with the latest hit coming from an inexplicable home loss to Georgia Southern. A win against Wofford next Saturday is necessary to reach even the seven DI wins which represent the bare minimum for at-large consideration.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key game this week:

Liberty (non-conference) at Elon
This could pan out as an elimination game for one of the at-large spots.

Southland Conference

The race for this auto-bid has cleared up considerably.

Texas State (7-4; 4-2)
Thanks to their wins over McNeese State on October 11, and Nicholls State on Saturday, the Bobcats have their fate in their own hands. Should they survive their visit to Sam Houston State next weekend they will take the Southland auto-bid. Status: In the Hunt

McNeese State (7-3; 4-2)
The Cowboys defeated Northwestern State on Saturday, but face the daunting task of winning at Central Arkansas (the best Southland team, but, alas not eligible) next weekend. Even if they do, they will have to hope for a loss by Texas State to have a chance for the auto-bid.
Status: In the Hunt

Northwestern State (6-4; 3-3)
The loss to McNeese State means that the Demons must now hope for both McNeese State and Texas State to lose next weekend, and win on the road at Stephen F. Austin. This would leave us all research tie-breaking procedures. . .
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Sam Houston State (4-5; 2-4), Stephen F. Austin (4-7; 2-4), and Nicholls State (2-6; 2-4) all go Off the Board after their losses.

Other at-large contenders

Cal Poly (8-1; 3-0)
As a result of their win on Saturday versus California-Davis, and their win against FBS San Diego State in week one, the Mustangs are now a lock for an at-large bid. Should they pull off an unlikely win at Wisconsin next weekend, they will be in the conversation for a seed as well.
Status: Lock

Liberty (9-2; 4-0)
The Flames continued their winning ways on Saturday with a comfortable win over Gardner-Webb. They face their crunch game of the season when they visit Elon next weekend. A win there would give them a 10-2 record, with eight wins, including two against teams from auto-qualifying conferences. This would likely give them an at-large bid as well. (Some would disagree!)
Status: In the Hunt

Albany (8-3; 7-0)
The Great Danes did what they had to do this weekend. Now all they can do is hope and pray, as their at-large hopes will likely be trumped by a team from a stronger conference with a similar record.
Status: Livin' on a Prayer

Prairie View A&M (9-1; 6-1)
Like Albany, the Panthers did what they had to do, and knocked off Alcorn State in their final regular-season game. They have, however, only the bare minimum of seven DI wins necessary for consideration, and will be left out in all likelihood.
Status: Livin' on a Prayer

Dayton (9-2; 6-1)
Whatever slim chance which Dayton had remaining was cooked with their loss, at home, to Morehead State on Saturday.
Status: Off the Board

FSU Players, Fraternity Brothers, Brawl in Student Union

2008-11-13T11:42:00.012-05:00

Details on this incident are sketchy, but slowly coming in. The most solid information so far has come from Andrew Carter at the Chopping Block Blog, who has interviewed FSU police Major James Russell:

“Today at about 12:37 p.m. today down at the student union where we have our market Wednesdays, kind of a flea market type atmosphere, the FSU PD reported to a large fight occurring in front of the Moore Auditorium, which is in there in the union. So far, we have determined that alleged persons are some members of the football team and members of the Phi Beta Sigma fraternity. . . .

It involved a large crowd, an undetermined amount of people at this point because we’re still, again, sorting through and seeing who was involved there. We know that there were four people injured – not releasing the types of injuries at this point but we understand at this point that there were two males and two females students injured down there. . . .

Q: Just going to throw this out there – I was told by a witness that one player might have hit an individual with a chair.
JR: We have information that a chair was thrown. . . .

Q: Do you know if the folks were injured were taken to the hospital:
JR: I know that they were at least treated at [student health center]. And that’s all I’m going to release right now as far as the injuries. I’m not saying that they did or did not get taken to the hospital. . . .

Q: Have you heard any motive for this fight?
JR: We’re trying to sort through that right now. Apparently they had a reason to fight – they didn’t just start slugging it out for no reason. We’re going to try to find out where did all this begin.

Shakier information has been disseminated on many blogs and message boards associated with Florida State athletics. Some place the blame on the players, such as this comment at Chopping Block:

The football players were the instigators of the brawl. They were reacting to an incident that took place last week off campus. The frats are in the student EVERY Wednesday. You probably see only a handful of football players. They assaulted four frat boys, sent one young lady to the health center for stitches and another one to the hospital with a broken nose. The latter was hit in the face with a chair. Can you actually believe that four frat boys would take on about 8 football players in the middle of the afternoon on campus? I'm not surprised the media is already siding with the football players.

And here, at Scalpem:

the fsu football players started the altercation-they jumped a sigma last week at a club[one of the smallest members in a chapter of about 30]-probably over a female. they took it upon themselves to come in the union looking for more trouble to start. i have been at fsu for 2years and i rarely see one football player, much less a group of them in the union on wednesdays-its a place where the greeks always go to step and stroll. in the ruckus they ended seriously injuring 2females, one of which is a sorority sister who ended up with her nose broken and needing surgery while the other one required stitches. if the football players were the ones in defense then why were they all well enough to attend practice?

Naturally, there is a different version of the events:

Last night at a Tallahassee night club, a player was getting friendly with the girl friend of a member of Phi Beta Sigma, an African-American fraternity founded in 1914.
In response, a frat member supposedly "jumped" an FSU player today at the student union. Other players came to his defense and things escalated from there.

Even more inside knowledge, and a version of events even more favorable to the players is claimed here:

Several of Florida State's top receivers were involved in a fight on campus around lunchtime on Wednesday at the student union, but sources with knowledge of the scuffle indicate the players involved were defending a teammate who was sucker-punched by an unidentified student.

An FSU official has confirmed to NoleInsider.com that redshirt freshman receiver Taiwan Easterling was punched by an unknown assailant in the FSU student union by a member of the Phi Beta Sigma fraternity, and that Easterling had been harassed and threatened by fraternity members for the last few days. . . .
According to an FSU team source [In other words, a player?], after Easterling was punched, he fought back as several FSU football players, including fellow receivers Bert Reed, Greg Carr and Corey Surrency, rushed to his defense.

Was the sucker punch thrown in the opposite direction? Yes, according to a comment at Tomahawk Nation:

Did the sucker punch happen? Yea, but it was the football player hitting the frat guy.

The crazy thing with the stories being report is how it sounds:
1 frat guy (about 5’10, 165lbs) walked up to a football player with a bunch of his football teammates and sucker punches him.

And someone claiming to be one of the two women injured has chimed in as well:

Greetings all I see that every one has an opinon on the issue and being that I was one of the females mentioned I figured that I would post. The altercation was in fact instigated by the FSU football players and there was a union full of witnesses who saw and lots who are making reports sorry to say that the team members where in the wrong in this instance. I think its sad because the other young lady that was assaulted had to go the emergency room and will now need surgery for the damage that they caused. I understand alot of you love the football team but these young men deservemore than inside punishment they have committed a crime and physically hurt a young woman, and they deserved to be punished

As a professional historian, it is always quite interesting to watch the rumor mill churn when there is a contested version of events. This, however, sums things up:

I’ve had it with this kind of garbage, period. Regardless of what comes from the situation, suspensions, dismissal or nothing, FSU football players need to take a line from Top Gun…

“You need to be doing it better and cleaner than the other guy.”
Right now, FSU has a mighty FAIL when it comes to that topic. It’s been a month since FSU got through a week without an incident. Why? Because these “kids” can’t control their emotions or fists? Because someone “dissed” someone else, or someone checked out someone else’s girlfriend.

Update (1) 12:53 PM

If laughing about this is more your thing, do not miss the following post at EDSBS:

FSU Assault Nearly Becomes International Incident

TEE HEE!

Update (2) 3:07 PM

FSUncensored, who would not make a bad historian, notes at Tomahawk Nation:

From a lot of members associated with the Fraternity in question. I am concerned that they are all repeating the exact same story, and I am curious if they were told to by leadership to echo those same lines. While the football team isn't talking, friends of Phi Beta Sigma certainly are, and they are saying that the 'Nole players started this and went to the Union with a purpose. Keep that in mind when reading reports. I am not saying that their accounts are incorrect or fabricated, but since they are the only voice trolling message boards with an actual first hand interest in the outcome, we need to view their accounts with a cautious eye. It is not as if the football players are out there openly giving their side of the story (which would be wildly different).

Update (3) 12:21 AM Nov. 14

Some eyewitnesses are now going on record, and it does not look good for the football players:

"All of a sudden I see like a couple of fraternity boys come down to the middle and then this guy just punched him out of no where," said Valerie Crisostomo, an eyewitness.

"The first punch was thrown by a football player, to one of the members in the fraternity of Phi Beta Sigma. And from then on it was just chaos, it was like football players everywhere," said Ranae Arnette, an eyewitness.
Eyewitnesses say four students were injured in the melee. The general feeling on campus is not one of surprise just disappointment. . . .

"It was dumb. It's not very mature to be fighting. I mean you're in college, come on now. And I mean obviously the football players aren't taking their best interests in because what if they would have gotten hurt? Plus we have a game we need to win this weekend against Boston College. It's just a bad decision on everybody's part," said Stefond Johnson, an eyewitness.

No arrests have been made, but Major Jim Russell with the FSU Police Department says the investigation is ongoing, and the possibility of arrests is "not off the table."

Eyewitnesses say the football players were wearing team apparel, which made them easy to pick out.

Update (5): 12:37 AM Nov. 14

More allegations from another anonymous source, quoted at I Bleed Garnet and Gold:
Someone got stabbed in the face with a pencil. A girl trying to split up the fight got punched in the face and another girl was hit in the face with a chair because a Sigma threw a chair at Surrency and he ducked. When the police split it up, the football players ran so it was only the Sigmas who told their side of the story.
The two girls were taken to the hospital and it’s all on camera. I know Surrency, Reed, and Easterling were involved. Easterling started {the fights} both times. Greg Carr was helping split it up.

Update (6) 8:01 AM Nov. 14

Nothing much new this morning, with the exception of some comments on the continuing investigation:

Florida State police met with players on the Seminoles football team and members of Phi Beta Sigma fraternity Thursday in the aftermath of a midday brawl on campus Wednesday that reportedly involved both sides.
Also in attendance were the dean of student affairs and staff from the Office of Greek Life, said FSUPD spokesman Maj. Jim Russell,
"It's our responsibility to kind of guide them — to do the adult thing, do the right thing to ensure this doesn't happen again," he said. "This behavior will not be tolerated at Florida State University." . . .
With the FSUPD investigation continuing, Bobby Bowden had little to say about the matter following Thursday's practice.
He said if he does not receive the crime report before Saturday's night game against Boston College, he doesn't know what he'll do about involved players participating in the game.
"I'd probably have to talk to our athletic director, president," he said.
Bowden would not divulge what his players had said about the incident.
"I couldn't get into that," he said. "Like everything, it has two sides."

Go ahead Bobby. Sit on your hands. And watch your legacy get trashed.

Update (7) 3:02 PM Nov. 14

Bobby Bowden has suspended five players for Saturday's game with Boston College:

“The police report has not been concluded but from the information that I have gathered, I am suspending five players who were apparently involved in the fray. Taiwan Easterling, Bert Reed, Corey Surrency, Cameron Wade and Richard Goodman will all be suspended for the Boston College game.”

This is very nearly a clean wipe out of his receiving corps.

Update (8) 12:32 PM Nov. 15

More Bowden:

"You’re dealing with 17, 18, 19, 20 year olds. Some of them use poor, terribly poor judgment at times when you have to discipline (for) it...It's a black eye. But gee whiz, you name me a school that doesn't have a black eye somewhere down the line. None of us like it. But life is made up of disappointments. It's how you respond to them is what decides whether you are successful or not. So we'll respond to this thing in a positive way and we'll end up making it work in our favor."

To paraphrase: "Its just a bunch of kids with poor judgment, everyone else has these sorts of problems, and it will all work for the best." Perhaps its time to remove those rose-colored contacts Bobby.

Update (9) 1:58 PM Nov. 16

More Bowden, from the Chopping Block Blog:

Bowden said he’s hoping all five of his receivers will be back this week against Maryland, but that he’ll have to wait to see the report. After the game last night, Bowden said, “I felt like they shouldn’t have been over there but if they hadn’t been one of our boys might have gotten killed.”

He was asked about that comment this morning, and he said the primary reason why he suspended players was because they were at the student union in the first place, when they likely knew that something bad was going down. Bowden said some of the suspended guys came into his office and cried when they received word that they wouldn’t be able to play.

“The fact that they went over there,” Bowden said was reason enough to suspend the players.

Bowden said he wished he could opine about the fight, but that it’d probably be best that he say nothing. Reading between the lines, though, you could easily get the sense that Bowden believes his players were not the instigators of the melee. Again, Bowden didn’t say that. He wouldn’t say that.

He did say this: “To me, it makes a lot of difference in who attacked who.” . . .

One last thing about the fight: Bowden acknowledged that tensions had been building for a while between the involved parties. He said he hoped the police knew the history. He stopped himself from saying more, but suggested that he might spill the beans if he ate a couple more cinnamon rolls.

Bar Battery, SMU Suspensions, and Faculty Oversight

2008-11-13T11:21:00.003-05:00

Two West Virginia football players have been charged with battery:

Two West Virginia football players have been charged with battery stemming from an early morning incident at a Morgantown bar in late October.
Tight end Maxwell Anderson, 21, and 20-year-old Jeremy Kash, the starting holder on special teams, are scheduled to be arraigned on the misdemeanor charge on Dec. 3 in Morgantown Municipal Court.
Morgantown Police Sgt. Harold Sperringer said the incident took place on Oct. 25. There was a fight inside a bar, and people filed a complaint with police saying they had been attacked by the players.
WVU Coach Bill Stewart says he's looking into the situation, but hasn't made a decision yet.

Four SMU football players have been suspended for the season:

Four members of the SMU football team have been suspended for the rest of the season.

Aldrick Robinson, Emmanuel Sanders, Derius Bell and Justin Smart will not participate in practices and the final two games of the season according to a source within SMU football. Sanders is a junior while Robinson, Bell and Smart are sophomores.

The suspensions are for minor infractions such as, class problems and being late to meetings.

The players were informed on Monday.

This is part of the "three strikes" rule implemented by June Jones when he came to SMU. It was under that policy that Justin Willis was suspended from Spring Football.

Inside Higher Ed reports on potential conflicts of interest regarding faculty oversight of athletics:

At the University of Michigan, football is king. . . .
When the team made the 2007 Rose Bowl, it might have been hard for many fans to get tickets, but at least seven faculty members knew they would be guaranteed seats. The university’s athletics department not only ensured that members of its Committee on Academic Performance — a faculty body that makes recommendations in cases of athlete eligibility — received tickets, it also covered their travel expenses. Members of the university’s Advisory Board on Intercollegiate Athletics — a group of faculty, alumni, athletes and administrators that advise the athletic director — received the same incentive. . . .
The Committee on Academic Performance reviews cases of athletes who have fallen below the university’s standards. Previously, the faculty committee itself decided whether the students should remain eligible to compete. Under the change, the panel recommends a course of action for the provost to consider in deciding whether that athlete should be able to play, practice only or sit out entirely as a result.
Hanlon said presenting tickets to these individuals does not present a conflict because the faculty members only advise the provost. . . .

*HEAD* *DESK*

Carole Browne, biology professor at Wake Forest and co-chair of the Coalition on Intercollegiate Athletics — an alliance of faculty senates that seek to reform college sports — said these incentive packages are commonplace. For example, because she serves on a similar athletics board at Wake Forest, Browne is offered season tickets to both men’s basketball and football home games. She said she does not accept the tickets, though, because she disapproves of the practice.

*APPLAUSE*

FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #2

2008-11-10T22:10:00.014-05:00

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #3
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #4
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2008 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2008: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Quarterfinals Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Semifinals Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results, Final Prediction, and FBS comment

This will be a weekly feature until selection day. Comments, corrections, and (constructive) criticism are most welcome.

Locks (3): James Madison; Montana; Weber State

In the Hunt (27): Appalachian State; Cal Poly; Colgate; Eastern Kentucky; Elon; Furman; Holy Cross; Lafayette; Liberty; Maine; McNeese State; New Hampshire; Nicholls State; Northern Iowa; Northwestern State; Richmond; Sam Houston State; South Carolina State; South Dakota State; Southern Illinois; Stephen F. Austin; Tennessee-Martin; Tennessee State; Texas State; Villanova; William & Mary; Wofford

Living on a Prayer (8): Albany; Bethune-Cookman; Dayton; Jacksonville State; Massachusetts; Montana State; Morgan State; Prairie View A&M

Off the Board: Lehigh; Northern Arizona; Sacred Heart; Western Illinois

Auto Bid Conferences

Big Sky Conference

A surprise at the top.

Weber State (9-2; 6-0)
Their 59-27 win over Idaho State has clinched the Big Sky auto-bid for the Wildcats. With a win against Montana under their belt, finishing the season with a win against Eastern Washington on November 22 and a 10-2 record could yield a top four seed.
Status: Lock

Montana (9-1; 4-1)
The Grizzlies went into the weekend with a slim chance at the Big Sky auto-bid. That evaporated with Weber State’s win. That said, Montana could afford to drop its last two games, against Idaho State and Montana State, and still receive an at-large bid. Winning out and finishing at 11-1 would almost certainly mean a top four seed.
Status: Lock

Montana State (6-4; 4-2)
Montana State could still reach an 8-4 record by winning out, and given the fact that New Hampshire made the playoffs last year with a 7-4 record, it is too early to completely rule out the Bobcats’ chances of a playoff spot.
Status: Living on a Prayer

Northern Arizona (6-3; 4-3)
Three weeks ago, the Lumberjacks were 6-1 and dreaming of a Big Sky title. With the loss to Montana State on Saturday, their at-large hopes have evaporated.
Status: Off the Board

Colonial Athletic Association

Once again this year, the CAA is both the biggest and baddest conference, with seven of its twelve teams still alive in the playoff hunt.

James Madison (8-1; 6-0)
The Dukes are the consensus #1 FCS team in the country, with their only loss coming against FBS Duke. After an idle week, they face William & Mary on Saturday. A win clinches the CAA title, while a loss would leave things as clear as mud. It does, however, come down to this. Should they win out they will be the #1 seed.
Status: Lock

Villanova (7-2; 5-1)
The win over New Hampshire on Saturday improved the Wildcats’ slim chances for the CAA auto-bid. They should not have to worry about that, as a win in one of their last two games, against cellar-dwellers Delaware and Towson, should lock up an at-large bid.
Status: In the Hunt

William & Mary (7-2; 5-1)
Should the Tribe take down James Madison on Saturday, we may very well see a three-way tie at the top which would leave everyone scrambling for tie-breaker procedures. Although a seed would be a long shot, all they need for a safe at-large bid would be a win in one of their final two games, against the Dukes and Richmond.
Status: In the Hunt

New Hampshire (7-2; 4-2)
The Wildcats saw their CAA title hopes all but evaporate, and their seed hopes disappear with the loss to Villanova on Saturday. That said the FBS scalp of Navy means that New Hampshire should take an at-large bid should they win one of their last two games. Both games will be tough; they host Massachusetts this weekend, and close out their season by visiting Maine.
Status: In the Hunt

Richmond (7-3; 4-2)
The Spiders have a good chance for an at-large bid to the playoffs, but cannot be comfortable unless they win their final two games, against Delaware and William & Mary, thus finishing with a 9-3 record.
Status: In the Hunt

Maine (7-3; 4-2)
By squeaking out a 21-20 win at Massachusetts on Saturday, the Black Bears have given themselves a chance for an at-large bid. Taking care of business at Rhode Island on Saturday would set up a final Saturday showdown with New Hampshire which could very well decide their fate.
Status: In the Hunt

Massachusetts (6-4; 3-3)
The loss to Maine on Saturday leaves the Minutemen on the brink, but as winning out would yield an 8-4 record it is still too early, as is the case with Montana State, to take them off the board.
Status: Living on a Prayer

Key games this week:

Massachusetts at New Hampshire
New Hampshire moves into the lock category with a win, while Massachusetts needs an improbable road victory to stay alive.

William & Mary at James Madison
James Madison wraps the CAA up with a win, while William & Mary stays alive in the championship hunt with a win, and moves into lock status.

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

South Carolina State (8-2; 6-0)

Despite their win against Howard, and the losses by Hampton and Morgan State, the Bulldogs have not quite finished their business. A win in either of their last two games would, however, yield them the MEAC auto-bid.
Status: In the Hunt

Morgan State (6-4; 4-2)

The loss at Norfolk State has all but finished the playoff hopes of the Bears. Should they defeat South Carolina State this weekend, follow that up by taking care of Hampton and South Carolina loses in the final game of the season, they will, improbably take the MEAC auto-bid.
Status: Living on a Prayer

Bethune-Cookman (7-2; 4-2)

While their hopes for the MEAC auto-bid are gone, winning out would leave the Wildcats at 9-2, and in the conversation for an auto-bid. Given the weakness of the MEAC, they would, however, likely lose out to an 8-3 or 8-4 team from a stronger conference.
Status: Living on a Prayer

Key game this week:

South Carolina State at Morgan State
A win for South Carolina State wraps up the auto-bid, and ends the hopes of Morgan State.

Missouri Valley

The new-look MVFC has become a black and blue conference with the addition of both South and North Dakota State. Three teams are still alive in the conference title race, and two teams have at-large hopes.

Northern Iowa (8-2; 6-1)
The Panthers took care of business this week by blanking Missouri State 42-0, but still must hope for a slip-up by Southern Illinois to clinch the auto-bid. However SIU performs, winning out would but them into the seeding conversation. A win in one of their final two games makes them a lock.
Status: In the Hunt

Southern Illinois (7-2; 5-1)
The Salukis remain the only team left in the MVFC with their fate entirely in their own hands, after escaping with a 24-14 victory over Western Illinois on Saturday in a game where the final score does no justice to its competitiveness. South Dakota State visits on Saturday in a game where a win would not only put SIU into lock status, but make them the prohibitive favorite to take the auto-bid. Winning out puts them in to the seeding conversation.
Status: In the Hunt

South Dakota State (6-4; 5-1)
The Jackrabbits kept their hopes of a playoff berth via the MVFC auto-bid alive on Saturday by trouncing Illinois State. To stay alive, they must win out, including a win at SIU at Saturday, and hope for a loss by Northern Iowa in one of the Panthers final two games. Winning out without a Northern Iowa loss would leave the Bunnies living on a prayer.
Status: In the Hunt

Western Illinois (5-4; 3-3)
The Leathernecks playoff chances evaporated on Saturday with Korey Lindsey’s 48-yard interception return for a touchdown with 1:36 left. (WOO HOO SALUKIS!)
Status: Off the Board

Key game this week:

South Dakota State at Southern Illinois
A loss by South Dakota State here ends their playoff hopes, while a win by SIU should clinch an at-large bid, and paves the way for the MVFC auto-bid.

Ohio Valley Conference

The race for the conference title is still in question, but the computer numbers may not be strong enough this year for serious at-large contention.

Tennessee State (8-2; 5-1)
The win over Eastern Illinois on Saturday puts the Tigers in pole position for the OVC auto-bid, as they have defeated their two top rivals. They face a tough Jacksonville State team on Saturday. Winning out yields them the auto-bid, while taking one out of the last two would leave them in the conversation for an at-large.
Status: In the Hunt

Tennessee-Martin (7-3; 5-1)
The Skyhawks have a straightforward path to the OVC championship. They must defeat Southeast Missouri State on the road this weekend, follow that up with a win against Eastern Kentucky in the final game of the season, and hope that Tennessee State slips up. Absent that, an at-large bid seems unlikely given that two of their wins came against non-DI opponents.
Status: In the Hunt

Eastern Kentucky (6-3; 5-1)
The Colonels were idle on Saturday, but head into a game against Murray state on a five-game winning streak. Should they win on Saturday, and defeat TN-M on the road in the following week, they would take the auto-bid if Tennessee State lost one of their final two.Winning out without the OVC title would yield a long shot chance at an auto-bid.
Status: In the Hunt

Jacksonville State (7-3; 5-2)
While there are tie-breaking scenarios that make an OVC auto-bid possible for the Gamecocks, their chances for a playoff spot are all but cooked. Any scenario requires, however, that they close out their season on Saturday with a win against Tennessee State.
Status: Living on a Prayer

Key game this week:

Tennessee State at Jacksonville State
A Tennessee State win keeps them on the path to the playoffs, while Jacksonville State’s chances evaporate with a loss.

Patriot League

As with the OVC, the computer numbers may not be strong enough for an at-large bid, but the conference title is still wide open.

Colgate (8-2; 4-0)
The Raiders barely survived their visit to Lehigh on Saturday, winning 34-33, and, consequently, the Patriot League picture is less complicated than it was a week ago. All Colgate must do now is close out their season in two weeks time by taking down Holy Cross. A loss would leave them under consideration for an at-large bid, but in all likelihood left out.
Status: In the Hunt

Holy Cross (6-3; 4-0)
While the Crusaders close out their season with two tough road games, their fate is entirely in their hands. They take the Patriot League auto-bid with by winning out against Lafayette and Colgate.
Status: In the Hunt

Lafayette (7-2; 3-1)
The Leopards auto-bid chances evaporated with the win by Colgate on Saturday, but winning out would leave Lafayette at 9-2, and in serious contention for an at-large bid.
Status: In the Hunt

Lehigh (3-6; 2-2)
Lehigh’s auto-bid chances ended with their tragic loss to Colgate on Saturday, in a game which they led by 12 points in the third quarter.
Status: Off the Board

Key game this week:

Holy Cross at Lafayette
Holy Cross stays in contention for the auto-bid with a win, while Lafayette needs to keep winning to retain its chances for an at-large bid.

Southern Conference

Four teams with conference championship and at-large hopes remain in the Southern Conference.

Appalachian State (8-2; 5-0)
The Mountaineers continued their winning ways on Saturday, thumping Chattanooga 49-7. They face Elon on Saturday in a game where a win would not only clinch the SOCON auto-bid, but would go a long way towards solidifying a seed as well. A win in either of their final two games puts them in the lock category.
Status: In the Hunt

Elon (8-2; 5-1)
The Phoenix have the daunting task on Saturday of facing down Appalachian State on the road. A win could result in a three-way tie at the top of the Southern conference, and a collective researching of tie-breaking scenarios. It would also put Elon in a position to take a seed. Winning one of their last two games puts them in the lock category
Status: In the Hunt

Wofford (7-2; 5-1)
The Terriers can still take the SOCON auto-bid should Elon win against Appalachian State on Saturday. As they defeated Citadel on Saturday, winning one out of their last two games should result in an at-large bid.
Status: In the Hunt

Furman (7-3; 4-2)
An idle week has probably allowed the Paladins to regroup from a tough loss at Appalachian State followed by a squeaker of an away win at Samford. They are now out of the SOCON title hunt, but would probably take an at-large bid by winning out. Winning one out of the last two would leave them living on a prayer.
Status: In the Hunt

Key game this week:

Elon at Appalachian State
Appalachian State clinches the SOCON auto-bid with a win, and either team would place themselves on the inside track to a seed with a win.

Southland Conference

The race for the auto-bid remains a mess, with all teams still alive with the exception of conference leader, Central Arkansas (which having probationary DI status is ineligible for the playoffs), and cellar-dweller Southeastern Louisiana. The other six teams in the conference, Northwestern State, Texas State, McNeese State, Sam Houston State, Stephen F. Austin, and Nicholls State are all alive with conference records of either 3-2 or 2-3. The scenarios are so limitless at this point that analysis will be deferred until next week.

Other at-large contenders

Cal Poly (7-1; 2-0)
The Mustangs are probably one win away from an at-large bid to the playoffs, mostly on the strength of their victory against FBS San Diego State. A seed looks unlikely, barring a win at FBS Wisconsin in their final game of the regular season.
Status: In the Hunt

Liberty (8-2; 3-0)
The Flames are alone at the top of the Big South, but this does not, yet, give them an automatic berth in the playoffs. They have a reasonable chance for an at-large bid, however, so long as they win one of their last two games. Should they defeat Elon to close out their regular season, expect an at-large bid.
Status: In the Hunt

Albany (7-3; 6-0)
The Great Danes played a meaningful OOC schedule this year, including 4 schools from the CAA. It is possible that defeating Wagner on Saturday, and finishing 8-3; 7-0 could result in an at-large bid to the playoffs, but this will probably be trumped by a team from a stronger conference with a similar record.
Status: Living on a Prayer

Prairie View A&M (8-1; 5-1)
The Panthers defeated Alabama A&M on Saturday to continue the possibility of SWAC participation in the playoffs. Winning out would, however, yield only the bare minimum of seven DI wins, and that against weak opposition, so their chances remain slim.
Status: Living on a Prayer

Dayton (9-1; 6-0)
As usual, the Pioneer Conference will, in all likelihood, get left out, even if Dayton does win out and post an 11-1 record. Their strongest non-conference tilts were against mid to lower range teams from two of the weaker conferences, the NEC and the Patriot League. The Selection Committee has been consistent in leaving out teams with profiles like this.
Status: Living on a Prayer

Sacred Heart (8-2; 4-2)
The loss to Monmouth on Saturday, coupled with weak computer numbers, means that the Pioneers' at-large hopes are finished.
Status: Off the Board

LSU Fans + Bama Fan + Alcohol + Pistol + Shotgun = Double Murder

2008-11-10T15:59:00.000-05:00

EGADS:

Investigators said witnesses told them that Dennis Smith, an LSU fan, called Williams, a fan of the Crimson Tide, after the game Saturday evening and an argument ensued.

Officers said Donna Smith was a relative of Michael Williams' girlfriend.

Soon, the Smiths arrived at Williams' home and the men wound up in a physical altercation, officers said.

Smith retrieved a pistol from his vehicle, and threatened Williams, who armed himself with a shotgun and fired two blasts, striking and killing Dennis Smith, officers said.

Donna Smith then threatened Williams, who shot and killed the woman, they said.

Investigators said alcohol was believed to have been a factor in the killings, and the investigation was ongoing late Sunday.

What a shock. . .

Link Roundup 11/09/08

2008-11-09T19:36:00.000-05:00

Mark Hasty comments on Ohio State's 'Small Problem':

Hell hath no fury like a sports dad scorned, and Buckeye receiver/returner Ray Small's dad isn't pleased that his son will not play in this weekend's OSU-Northwestern game. Buckeye coach Jim Tressel suspended the younger Small for one game--"to start with," in Tressel's words--for repeatedly violating team rules.

Small's dad, Ken Small, is calling shenanigans.

"They're intentionally trying to blow his career," Ken Small told The Associated Press by telephone from his home in suburban Columbus.
There is evidence to suggest that Ray Small is blowing his own career, without any help from the Ohio State coaching staff. He was "demoted" from jersey number 4 to number 82 last spring; he is also the only Buckeye on scholarship without a biography in the school's media guide. Hence, he's clearly been in trouble before, and maybe he hasn't quite gotten the message yet.

David Mayo attempts to cheer up Michigan fans over the hiring of Rich Rodriguez, and scores some hits and highly offensive misses. A couple of the hits:

7. Jim Harrick got fired as UCLA's basketball coach for filing padded expense reports. So Rhode Island hired him and he was accused of sexual misconduct by a secretary. So Georgia hired him and a player received an "A" for a course he never attended, taught by Harrick's son, among other scholastic oddities.

RichRod certainly won't get this many botched opportunities. But he never won a national championship, either.

6. Jan van Breda Kolff recruited a basketball player to St. Bonaventure whose qualification for admission was a welding certificate, leading to a far-reaching investigation ending in the ouster of the coach, athletic director and university president.

RichRod has a roster full of players majoring in something called General Studies. But U-M actually knows about it, so I guess it's all right.

UCLA forward Nikola Dragovic has been arrested on suspicion of battery:

Dragovic, a junior from Belgrade, Serbia, was allegedly involved in an altercation with his former girlfriend. Dragovic and his girlfriend lived together, according to Coach Ben Howland, who added that, "They're going through a breakup of that relationship."
Los Angeles Police Department officers arrested the 20-year-old Dragovic at about 4:20 p.m. at the apartment he and the woman had shared in the 3200 block of Overland Avenue. According to LAPD spokesman Jason Lee, Dragovic went to the apartment to collect his belongings. He found them dumped out front.

An argument ensued, during which Dragovic allegedly pushed the woman to the floor, Lee said.

Bail was set at $20,000. It was not known whether Dragovic was still in custody late Friday night.

Georgia Tech guard Lewis Clinch has been declared academically ineligible:

Georgia Tech senior Lewis Clinch is academically ineligible to participate in basketball and will not be available to play for the Yellow Jackets during the fall semester, head coach Paul Hewitt announced Friday.
The 6-3 guard from Cordele, Ga., can regain his eligibility following the semester, which ends Dec. 12. Tech has seven regular-season games as well as tonight's exhibition game scheduled before then.

FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #1

2008-11-04T15:20:00.012-05:00

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #3
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #4
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2008 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2008: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Quarterfinals Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Semifinals Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results, Final Prediction, and FBS comment

This will be a weekly feature until selection day. Comments, corrections, and (constructive) criticism are most welcome.

Auto Bid Conferences

Big Sky Conference

A surprise at the top.

Weber State (8-2; 6-0)
The Wildcats have all but clinched the auto-bid from the Big Sky Conference, and have the difficult part of their schedule behind them, including victories against perennial powerhouses Montana and Montana State. Any Montana loss clinches the conference, as would any win against their remaining opponents, Idaho State (0-9; 0-5) and Eastern Washington (3-5; 2-3). Winning out probably yields the Wildcats a top four seed.

Montana (8-1; 4-1)
While chances of a conference title are slim, the Grizzlies could afford to lose two of its last three games and still gain an at-large bid. Should they win out, they will probably garner a top four seed.

Northern Arizona (6-3; 4-2)
Just two weeks ago, the Lumberjacks were in the thick of the Big Sky race. After losses to Weber State and Montana on successive weekends, they now find themselves needing to win out to have a realistic chance of an at-large bid to the playoffs.

Key game this week:

Montana State at Northern Arizona
Montana State is out of the mix, but Northern Arizona needs a win here to keep their at-large hopes alive.

Colonial Athletic Association

Once again this year, the CAA is both the biggest and baddest conference, with seven of its twelve teams still alive in the playoff hunt.

James Madison (8-1; 6-0)
The Dukes are the consensus #1 FCS team in the country, with their only loss coming against FBS Duke. That said, it will be a couple weeks before there is any clarity on the CAA auto-bid, and it could very well go done to the final Saturday, as it did last year. James Madison is idle this week, as they rest up before a huge game with William & Mary on November 15. It does, however, come down to this. Should they win out they will be the #1 seed.

New Hampshire (7-1; 4-1)
While FBS scalps were frequently won last year, they have been rare this year, but the Wildcats posted a resounding win against Army in the opening game of their season. They remain one of the four contenders for the CAA auto-bid, but have a tough path ahead of them, with their remaining three games all coming against playoff contenders. Should they win out, they will likely receive a seed on the basis of their FBS victory.

William & Mary (6-2; 4-1)
Although a seed for the Tribe would be a long shot, they are still very much in the hunt for the CAA title, as they are responsible for New Hampshire's sole loss, and face James Madison in two weeks time. Should they win out, all that would be required for a championship would be a loss by Villanova.

Villanova (6-2; 4-1)
The bad news for the Wildcats is that they have almost entirely exhausted their margin of error for an at-large bid. The good news is that their schedule is soft beyond this Saturday’s matchup with New Hampshire. They are still alive in the hunt for the CAA crown, but having lost to James Madison earlier in the season, would need a lot of things to happen which are beyond their control.

Massachusetts (6-3; 3-2)
The Minutemen are one of three teams in the CAA who are one loss away from likely elimination from at-large consideration. The path will not be easy, as Massachusetts will be entertaining Maine this weekend, and must follow that up with a visit to New Hampshire next weekend.

Maine (6-3; 3-2)
Like Massachusetts, the Black Bears have not yet posted a win against a playoff contender this year. They must win out to have an at-large chance, which would include victories at Massachusetts and hosting New Hampshire.

Richmond (6-3; 3-2)
The Spiders have a more realistic chance to reach the playoffs than either Maine or Massachusetts, as their next two games come against CAA cellar dwellers Hofstra and Delaware. It may come down to the final game of the season, when they travel to William & Mary.

Key games this week:

Maine at Massachusetts
This is essentially an elimination game.

UNH at Villanova
This is an elimination game where the CAA auto-bid hopes of the two teams are concerned.

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

The picture here is fairly simple, since none of the teams have a serious shot at an at-large bid. Three teams, South Carolina State (7-2; 5-0), Morgan State (6-3; 4-1) and Hampton (5-3; 4-1) are in serious contention for the auto-bid and Bethune-Cookman (6-2; 3-2) is still mathematically alive. Obviously, if South Carolina State wins out, they take the bid, but this requires a victory at Morgan State at November 15. If Morgan State won, they would, however, be forced to follow this up with a victory the next week when Hampton dropped in for a visit.

Key game this week:

Bethune-Cookman at Hampton
Bethune-Cookman is eliminated by a loss, and Hampton is eliminated by a loss and wins by Morgan State and South Carolina State.

Missouri Valley

The new-look MVFC has become a black and blue conference with the addition of both South and North Dakota State. Four teams are still alive in the conference title race, and three teams have at-large hopes.

Northern Iowa (7-2; 5-1)
While the Panthers lead the conference in the win column, they do not have their fate in their hands as a result of a loss at Southern Illinois on September 27. Should there be no slip-up by SIU, an at-large bid looks to be all but a formality, given that their final three games are against weak opposition. Winning out puts them in contention for a seed.

Southern Illinois (6-2; 4-1)
The Salukis are the only team left in the MVFC with their fate entirely in their own hands, as they will take the auto-bid, and put themselves into contention for a seed should they win out. The path is, however, difficult, as they must defeat fellow contenders Western Illinois and South Dakota State on successive weekends, and follow that up by taking care of business at Illinois State on the final weekend of the season. Taking two of the last three should result in an at-large bid.

South Dakota State (5-4; 4-1)
The at-large hopes of the Jackrabbits effectively ended with the loss to Cal Poly on October 18, but they retain a slim chance to take the MVFC auto-bid. That scenario requires winning out coupled with a loss by Northern Iowa in one of their final two conference games.

Western Illinois (5-3; 3-2)
The Leathernecks are still mathematically (but outlandishly) alive in the quest for the MVFC auto-bid, but would probably clinch an at-large bid by winning out. The crunch game comes this weekend when they visit Southern Illinois.

Key game this week:

Western Illinois at Southern Illinois
A loss here ends both the auto-bid and at-large chances for Western Illinois, while a loss by Southern Illinois puts them squarely on the bubble.

Ohio Valley Conference

The race for the conference title is still in question, but the computer numbers may not be strong enough this year for serious at-large contention.

Tennessee-Martin (7-2; 5-1)
The Skyhawks have a straightforward path to the OVC championship. They must defeat Southeast Missouri State (3-6; 1-4) on the road in two weeks time, follow that up with a win against Eastern Kentucky in the final game of the season, and hope that Tennessee State slips up. Absent that, an at-large bid seems unlikely barring a win against FBS Auburn this weekend.

Eastern Kentucky (6-3; 5-1)
After losing three of their first four games, the Colonels have rattled off five straight, and put themselves into contention for the auto-bid. This would require a home win against Murray State (3-6; 2-3) in two weeks, followed by a win at Tennessee-Martin, and at least one Tennessee State loss. Even if they win out, an at-large bid would be an extreme long shot.

Tennessee State (7-2; 4-1)
Having already defeated Tennesse-Martin and Eastern Kentucky, the Tigers have their fate in their hands. If they win out, they take the OVC auto-bid. The crunch game comes on November 15 when they visit Jacksonville State.

Jacksonville State (6-3; 4-2)
Losses to Tennessee-Martin and Eastern Kentucky mean that the Gamecocks chances of an OVC title and auto-bid are slim, but it could happen should they take down Tennessee State at home.

Key game this week:

Tennesse-Martin at Auburn
After starting 4-1, Auburn has lost its last four. Could the Skyhawks head down and steal one, and revive their at-large hopes in the process?

Patriot League

As with the OVC, the computer numbers may not be strong enough for an at-large bid, but the conference title is still wide open.

Colgate (7-2; 3-0)
The Raiders hold the whip hand in the Patriot League only because they face Holy Cross at home in the final game of the season. Of course should Colgate slip up this weekend when they visit Lehigh, that game might only be part of a very complicated picture.

Holy Cross (5-3; 3-0)
While Fordham should not give the Crusaders any problems, they face a tough road to the championship, as their final two games are road games against Lafayette and Colgate.

Lafayette (6-2; 2-1)
The loss to Colgate this weekend was a serious blow to the Leopards championship hopes. They must now win out, and hope that Colgate loses its last two games. At 9-2, Lafayette would, however, be in serious contention for an at-large bid.

Lehigh (3-5; 2-1)
Despite an awful OOC season, Lehigh is still alive for the conference championship. It would require them to win out, including victories at home this weekend versus Colgate and at Lafayette in the final game of the season, topped with two losses by Holy Cross.

Key game this week:

Colgate at Lehigh
Colgate can keep the conference race simple with a win, and Lehigh's hopes evaporate with a loss.

Southern Conference

Four teams with conference championship and at-large hopes remain in the Southern Conference.

Appalachian State (7-2; 5-0)
Despite getting thumped by FBS LSU and losing a close one at James Madison the Mountaineers look every bit as good as last year, a point emphasized by their 70-24 trouncing of Wofford on Saturday. They face only one remaining top-shelf opponent, Elon, at home in two weeks. Winning out would result in the SOCON title and a likely seed. One win in the final three games would clinch an at-large bid.

Elon (7-2; 5-1)
The Phoenix still have SOCON title hopes. All they have to do is take care of business against Western Carolina this weekend, and then visit Appalachian State and come away with a win, and a possible seed. (Should this scenario occur, and Wofford also wins out, we will all be researching tie-breakers) They can still afford one slip-up and receive an at-large bid.

Wofford (6-2; 4-1)
Before Friday, Wofford had to have fancied their chances for the SOCON title, given that they had trounced Elon, and had only one loss, to FBS South Carolina. Their title hopes rely winning out, and an Elon victory against Appalachian State. Whatever the scenario there, their at-large chances look solid should they win two out of their last three.

Furman (7-3; 4-2)
The Paladins remain mathematically alive in the title hunt, but, realistically, are hoping to win out and receive at at-large berth. Their most significant barrier? Visiting Wofford in the final game of the season.

Southland Conference

This conference race remains a mess, with all teams still alive with the ironic exception of Central Arkansas, the team at the top of the table (they still have probationary DI status and are ineligible for the playoffs). Northwestern State is a game ahead of all other contenders, but must face, you guessed it, Central Arkansas this weekend. Along with Northwestern State, McNeese State remains in the hunt for an at-large bid, but I will defer on further analysis of this conference until the next update. Hopefully there will be some clarity, or at minimum some separation after the results on Saturday.

Other at-large contenders

Cal Poly (6-0; 2-1)
In past seasons Caly Poly posted gaudy records against weak opposition, and found itself disappointed when it came time for selection. This year, they scheduled meaningful opposition, and posted wins against Northwestern State and South Dakota State, in addition to FBS San Diego State. They lost a heartbreaker to Montana, and had a game against McNeese State cancelled. Winning two out of their last three is realistic, and it would probably give them an at-large bid.

Liberty (7-2; 3-0)
The fact that Flames scheduled both MVFC and SOCON opposition OOC gives them a chance at an at-large bid should they win two of their last three games (which would give them seven DI wins). Should one of those wins come against Elon, EXPECT an at-large bid.

Sacred Heart (8-1; 4-1)
While the two of the Pioneers' victories were over DII opposition, winning out would give Sacred Heart a 10-1 record, including eight DI wins, with only a narrow loss to NEC leader Albany. At minimum, they would be under consideration.

Prairie View A&M (7-1; 4-1)
Winning out would give the Panthers a 9-1 record, and the bare minimum of seven DI wins necessary for consideration. As in past years, however, SWAC participation in the DI playoffs will likely be trumped by the Bayou Classic.

Dayton (8-1; 5-0)
As usual, the Pioneer Conference will, in all likelihood, get left out, even if Dayton does win out and post an 11-1 record. Their strongest non-conference tilts were against mid to lower range teams from two of the weaker conferences, the NEC and the Patriot League. The Selection Committee has been consistent in leaving out teams with profiles like this.

NCAA Watch #2: Tougher Infractions Penalties?

2008-11-02T13:04:00.001-05:00

The DI Committee on Infractions has suggested a move towards tougher and more extensive penalties for rule-breaking. Lets examine the proposals and consider their impact and potential deterrent effect:

• Employing a broader base of penalties, including fines, postseason bans and other punishments that have not been used in the recent past, such as the television ban.

Fines: Why revive a penalty which did not work in the past, especially for the big-money programs which do not find them burdensome? If fines were revived, then they would merely become a 'cost of doing business'. Bad idea.

Postseason bans: Postseason bans are already utilized, but not enough, and the Infractions Committee needs more latitude to impose them. Excellent idea.

Television Bans: This would hit rule-breakers where it hurt, not only in terms of money, but publicity as well. It is also why, although it is a fabulous idea, one should not expect it to be adopted any time soon.

• Eliminating cooperation with the investigation as a mitigating factor in assessing penalties. . . .The Committee on Infractions believes that the more appropriate way to handle cooperation is to charge refusal to cooperate as an independent violation.

Since the NCAA relies on institutions to self-report rule-breaking, this is a proposal which might hurt more than help. That said, any mitigation should still result in a proportional penalty, which has not always been the case in the past, hence the following:

• Assessing penalties that convey the magnitude of the violation, no matter the type of violation (for example, imposing a scholarship penalty even if the violation does not relate to financial aid).

That is good common sense, but there is one for the lawyers:

• Making public the names of staff members involved in infractions cases.

On the one hand, this is information which, as recent cases show, almost always hits the press. Given that the NCAA has been sued successfully even where names of boosters have been redacted from its reports, this is something that they may wish to remain careful about. Although there is this point:

[Jo] Potuto said cleansing the names from infractions reports is a practice that began before staff members accused of violations had the opportunity to respond to allegations of violations, appear before the Committee on Infractions and appeal any finding to the Infractions Appeals Committee.

On the whole, there is nothing here to hold your breath about.

NCAA Watch #1: Egregious Failure in Gender Equity

2008-11-02T12:37:00.001-05:00

Only a day after UDC was cited for 'egregious lack of institutional control' the NCAA released its biennial gender equity report, which, with the exception of Division III, reveals regression rather than improvement. From the NCAA's press release:

Data from the newly released 2005-06 report indicate that in Division I, 66 percent of total expenses were directed toward men’s athletics versus 34 percent for women’s programs. Although the figures represent minimal changes from the 2003-04 report, the gap between men’s and women’s spending is slightly wider (three percentage points) for the 2005-06 report compared to the previous study.

In Division II, the proportion of total expenses devoted to men’s and women’s athletics remained the same (58 percent and 42 percent, respectively) as it was in the 2003-04 report. However, in Division III, the percentage for women’s athletics programs increased by two percentage points (to 44 percent), while men’s allocations dropped by two points to 56 percent. . . .

Head coaches’ salaries are often cited as a major factor in recent increases in athletics spending, and that could continue based on findings in the 2005-06 report. Data from 2005-06 show the proportion of money spent on salaries of head coaches of men’s teams still outpaces the proportion spent on head coaches of women’s teams in Divisions I, II and III, a trend that has remained relatively constant since the report was first issued in 1991-92.

In comparing 2003-04 and 2005-06 findings, Division III was the only division to register an increase, although it was insignificant at just 1 percent, in the proportion of total expenses being directed to head coaches of women’s teams.

Similarly, the proportion of assistant coaches’ salaries for women’s teams lags behind that of men’s programs in all three divisions, according to the 2005-06 report. At Division I institutions without football, assistants of women’s teams receive 47 percent of the salary dollars, which represents a small increase from 2003-04. Comparatively, in the other two divisions, assistants of women’s teams received not more than 31 percent of the salary budget. . . .

For more coverage see this article at Inside Higher Ed, which highlights another part of the problem:

Donna A. Lopiano, former head of the Women’s Sports Foundation and now president of Sports Management Resources, a consulting firm, attributed the apparent decline in support for women’s sports to a number of factors, including the slowdown in the growth of participation of female athletes in high school and college and a tightening economy. “Add in the continued arms race in men’s football and basketball, in particular the academic support building arms race and assistant coach salaries,” and it’s inevitable that athletics departments will have trouble finding enough money to go around, Lopiano said in an e-mail message.

In recent years, most Division I colleges have tended to deal with financial shortfalls by cutting back on men’s sports other than football and men’s basketball, which has often led advocates for those sports to blame the push for gender equity — and Title IX of the Education Amendments, the federal law that requires equitable treatment of female athletes — for their plight. But “with no more men’s sports to squeeze because they’ve already been cut,” Lopiano said, “now women’s sports are being squeezed.”
To top it off, she said, the Education Department’s Office for Civil Rights has largely stopped enforcing Title IX.

Mercifully, this should change on Tuesday, whatever the result.

NCAA Penalizes U. of the District of Columbia

2008-11-02T11:33:00.001-05:00

This one has been a long time in coming, and it highlights continuing problems at UDC, which just recently hired yet another president. Best wishes, and best of luck to him. There is a good summary article at Inside Higher Ed, the NCAA press release is here, and details follow from the NCAA public infractions report:

This case presented the single most egregious lack of institutional control ever seen by the committee. Even though the institution has no more than approximately 90 student- athletes whose eligibility has to be tracked at any given time, from the 2000-01 academic year through 2003-04, an astounding 248 student-athletes and two prospective student- athletes were allowed to practice or compete while ineligible and/or receive impermissible athletically related financial aid or housing. The student-athletes were ineligible due to the institution's failure to follow a number of long-time, basic rules that should have been easily adhered to: initial eligibility requirements, transfer requirements, satisfactory progress requirements and the completion of mandatory NCAA forms. . . .

Further, the institution failed to cooperate adequately with the enforcement staff in the investigation of the violations. The institution continually missed deadlines for submitting reports and did not adequately communicate with the enforcement staff. It compromised the integrity of the investigation when it interviewed certain witnesses after being asked to refrain from doing so and then failed to inform the staff that the interviews had occurred. It insisted on conducting an investigation independent of the enforcement staff, but was over two and one-half years late in submitting its final self-reports.

Finally, two former administrators violated the principles of ethical conduct. The former director of athletics refused to answer certain questions in his interviews with the enforcement staff, and the former faculty athletics representative provided false and misleading information regarding his role in the student-athlete certification process. . . .

88 student-athletes were permitted to practice and/or compete while academically ineligible. These student-athletes were ineligible for a variety of reasons including, but not limited to, failing to meet initial-eligibility requirements, failing to meet progress-toward-degree requirements, failing to meet two-year transfer requirements, failing to meet four-year transfer requirements and/or failing to satisfy the minimum 12- credit-hour requirement. The number of student-athletes per sport were as follows: men's basketball (26); women's basketball (seven); men's cross country (five); women's cross country (four); men's soccer (28); men's tennis (four); women's tennis (five) and women's volleyball (nine). . . .

When interviewed as part of the investigation, the former faculty athletics representative asserted that he played an integral role in the eligibility certification process. He claimed that every year he formulated an independent eligibility checklist while conducting a thorough analysis of the eligibility status of each student-athlete. None of the individuals interviewed, who were integral to the academic certification process for student-athletes, corroborated the former faculty athletics representative's account of his role. . . .

The penalties adopted and imposed by the committee are as follows: . . .

2. Five years of probation commencing on October 29, 2008, and running through
October 28, 2013. (The institution proposed a four-year term of probation.)

3. Cancellation of the seasons of competition in the following sports during the
academic years noted: men's basketball (2004-05), women's basketball (2004-05),
men's tennis (2004-05), women's tennis (2004-05), men's cross country (2005-06)
and women's cross country (2005-06). (Institution imposed.) . . .

5. Pursuant to NCAA Bylaws 19.5.2.20-(e) and 31.2.2.3-(b), vacation of all contests
from the academic years 2000-01 through 2003-04 in which student-athletes
competed while ineligible. . . .

9. None of the institution's athletics teams shall be eligible for postseason competition during the 2009-10 academic year. But for the institution's substantial self- imposed penalties, including the cancellation of the competition seasons for various sports, this post-season ban would have been imposed for two academic
years.

If only the NCAA would unload similarly on big-money Division I schools, but I digress. I held off on posting until I could get official comment from UDC:

In response to the report, President Sessoms, who assumed the reigns at UDC just two months ago declares, “UDC understands and accepts today’s ruling by the NCAA Infractions Committee.” Sessoms further states, “The penalties proposed in the Committee’s report are consistent with our own recommendations and what we have already self-imposed. We understand that during the years 2000-2001 through 2003-2004 UDC failed to effectively carry out its responsibilities and obligations as a Division II member institution. UDC regrets that the violations occurred. The University has already taken proactive steps to ensure future compliance with all NCAA regulations.”

There is, however, one proactive step that UDC has not taken. The NCAA report also notes:

This case once again highlights the difficulty in one person serving as athletic director and the head coach of a sport. The committee believes that if an institution is committed to participation as a member of Division II, it should be willing to commit adequate resources for athletic administration, including a fulltime athletic director and compliance officer.

The acting Athletics Director at UDC is the head basketball coach, Julius Smith (who, it should be noted, arrived after the violations occurred). Lets hope that president Sessoms follows the NCAA's lead on this point.

Charges against Brandon Fields dismissed; Virginia fullback arrested and charged

2008-10-30T13:43:00.000-04:00

Petty larceny charges against Nevada guard Brandon Fields have been dismissed:

Tim Randolph, chief prosecutor for the City of Sparks, said Wednesday the city lacked enough evidence for a conviction.
"Mr. Fields never left the store with anything that didn't belong to him," Randolph said. "Although the officers had probable cause to cite him along with the other two players, I didn't think that we could have proven the case beyond a reasonable doubt. Mr. Fields also did community service."
Randolph said Fields has done more than 40 hours of community service in the last week.

The Virginia football team faces new legal woes, but is not taking action against the player involved:

Rashawn Jackson, the team's No.1 fullback, was arrested this week by U.Va. police. He faces two felony charges related to an incident on Thanksgiving last year at a first-year dormitory at U.Va.

Jackson, a redshirt junior from Jersey City, N.J., was charged with grand larceny and breaking and entering. . . .
Cavaliers coach Al Groh was not available for comment. In a statement released last night, Athletic Director Craig Littlepage said: "At this time Rashawn Jackson is still a participating member of the football team. This matter will be handled within the team and the athletics department, and his final status with the team will not be determined until such time as the legal process is resolved or additional information becomes available. The athletics department will not have additional comment until this case is resolved." . . .
He reportedly stole a video-game console from Cauthen Dorm on Nov. 22, 2007. Why police waited nearly a year to charge Jackson is not clear. . . .

Legal Cases: Brenda Monk and FSU; Colorado Student-Athlete

2008-10-30T12:47:00.000-04:00

Brenda Monk, the tutor at the center of the Florida State cheating scandal, plans to sue FSU for $600,000, alleging defamation:

Brenda Monk, one of the former Florida State employees alleged to be involved in an academic misconduct scandal, plans to sue the school for defamation, the St. Petersburg Times has learned.
A notice of that intent was sent to the school via registered mail on Wednesday, said her attorney, Brant Hargrove. That's a requirement under Florida law before one can file an action against a state entity.
In the letter supplied to the Times, Hargrove cited two main points:
• "Florida State (the University) failed to adequately investigate facts surrounding an allegation by the University that Dr. Monk failed to perform her duties as a Learning Specialist for Florida State University."
• "The University, after failing to properly investigate said facts, then released for public consumption, derogatory and defamatory statements alleging impropriety by Dr. Monk."
Monk, 59, a Ph.D. who was hired by FSU in January 2001 then resigned in the wake of the scandal in July 2007, will be seeking $600,000 from her loss of employment income and retirement benefits. She is now a principal at the school at the Lake City Correctional Facility.

RyAnne Ridge, a former member of the women's basketball teams at Tulsa and Colorado, has filed a breach of contract suit over the failure of Colorado to provide her a scholarship:

RyAnne Ridge, a member of the CU team for parts of two seasons, filed a breach-of-contract suit against CU and the school’s Board of Regents earlier this month in Denver District Court.

The suit alleges she was verbally promised a scholarship by women’s coach Kathy McConnell-Miller and never received it after transferring from the University of Tulsa. It also claims the coach made contact with Ridge while she was still playing at Tulsa, a recruiting violation CU self-reported to the NCAA in June.

CU is still on NCAA probation from an investigation into the athletic department’s undercharging of walk-on athletes for certain types of meals. That probation lasts until next summer, but Patrick O’Rourke, the university’s chief litigation counsel, said Wednesday the women’s basketball “secondary violation” likely won’t affect the probation.

“We’ve just been served with the legal paperwork, and what I’ve reviewed demonstrates that Ms. Ridge had an expectation of having an opportunity to be walk-on player (instead of a scholarship player),” O’Rourke said. “But we will investigate the claims, and I look forward to hearing about the conversations that Ms. Ridge claims to have occurred.” . . .
A student-athlete suing over a scholarship is rare, according to Wake Forest University law professor Timothy Davis. Davis is an expert in the field and said he hasn’t heard of a decision similar to Ridge’s suit involving a transfer student-athlete.

“There isn’t much in precedence,” Davis said Wednesday. “But if the evidence is there, a court might be willing to entertain it.”

I am no lawyer, but the old joke about a verbal contract being as good as the paper it is written on comes to mind. As things stand, however, it is important to note that scholarships, year-to-year, are de facto granted at the will of the coach. This remains one of the principle flaws in the NCAA scholarship structure, and it means that the futures of student-athletes like Ms. Ridge are at the mercy of their coaches.

Another Coach, Another Scandal

2008-10-28T16:30:00.001-04:00

Jon Valdez, ertswhile coach of the University of Illinois Men's Gymnastics team, resigned recently for the classic 'personal reasons':

A University of Illinois gymnastics coach who trained U.S. gymnasts at the Beijing Olympics has resigned for "personal reasons," a school official said Monday, and a published report said he was being investigated for possible misconduct.

Jon Valdez left his job as men's assistant coach on Oct. 17, Assistant Athletic Director Kent Brown told The Associated Press on Monday night.

The details are slowly emerging. First came news that he was under investigation:

Responding to a Tribune inquiry, Robin Kaler, the university's associate chancellor for public affairs, said, "There is an investigation into a camera found in a locker room on campus."

The mind boggles. . . It now emerges that this is not the only thing that is on Valdez's plate:

A University of Illinois gymnastics coach who resigned this month for unspecified personal reasons is facing a drunk-driving charge in Wisconsin.

Waukesha County court records indicate that Jon Valdez was charged with operating while under the influence after his Sept. 18 arrest. He's pleaded not guilty.

Watch this space. . .

Update (1) 8:36 PM

More details from this AP story; we are dealing with a video camera:

Northcutt and university officials have declined to say whether the video camera investigation was a factor in Valdez's resignation, which the attorney said was voluntary. University police hope to finish their investigation into the video camera by the end of the week and send it to Champaign County prosecutors, who would decide whether to file charges.

"Right now, no charges have been filed. And we have not been told by anyone that charges will be filed," Northcutt said.

A student found the small wireless camera inside a locker Sept. 25, university police Lt. Roy Acree said. It was pointed out of the locker through a small opening and "would be able to capture images of people changing their clothes," he said.

He declined to say which locker room the camera was in, other than that it wasn't a room used by students outside the university's athletics programs. Acree said the camera wasn't transmitting images to a computer or over the Internet, but wouldn't say whether investigators found any stored images.

Ugly, ugly. . .

Indiana Hires Fred Glass as New AD

2008-10-28T16:16:00.001-04:00

Indiana is slowly establishing a new normal following the Kelvin Sampson debacle. All that remains is the NCAA's announcement of penalties, given todays announcement that Fred Glass has been hired as the new Athletic Director:

Fred Glass, an Indianapolis attorney, was introduced as Indiana's next athletic director Tuesday morning.

"When your alma mater comes calling, that is truly an honor," said Glass, who earned bachelor's and law degrees from IU in 1981 and 1984, respectively. "Indiana University athletics have long been a benchmark of excellence - both academically and athletically - and I will do everything within my power to enable our athletic teams to meet all the expectations of our great fans."

Other comments seem to indicate that Glass intends to clean up Indiana's tarnished reputation:

"I accepted this job because I love big, tough challenges," Glass said during a news conference. "We had been very proudly promoting that we had never had a major infraction in 50 years, and I think we can still do that. But that's why I say job one is making sure Indiana University follows the rules." . . .
"Indiana is in my blood and I love IU. But this is not about the past, it's about the future," Glass said. "I want Indiana athletics to become known as a a national leader for three things: Following the rules, a commitment to academics and, finally, excellence in athletics."

Best wishes to Glass!

Failed Drug Tests, Shoplifting Charges, and Deferred Justice

2008-10-28T15:56:00.001-04:00

Failed drug tests in the North Texas football program do not indicate a drug problem, says their coach:

Fifteen University of North Texas football players failed a drug test conducted this fall at the request of head coach Todd Dodge, according to documents obtained by the Denton Record-Chronicle through the Freedom of Information Act.

Drug tests were conducted on a pool of 86 football players selected by the coaching staff. UNT tested members of the team who were contributing on a regular basis. Fifteen of those tests, or 17 percent, were positive.

The university did not release the names of the players or what drugs they tested positive for.

“I don’t think we have a problem with drugs, but I will say that it’s every coach’s prerogative to test his team,” Dodge said. “It’s a great tool to help players stay away from drugs and temptations. When I talked to my team about drug testing all of them, I told them that if there was one young man on our team who secretly needed help, if it saved one young man from getting in trouble or ending up dead, then it is worth it.”

Two of the Nevada basketball players arrested for shoplifting earlier in the month have plead not guilty:

Nevada starting guard Brandon Fields and freshman forward Ahyaro Phillips have pleaded not guilty to a shoplifting charge stemming from an incident earlier this month at a Sparks sporting goods store.
In the same case involving a Scheels store, freshman point guard London Giles pleaded guilty Wednesday to petty larceny, and was fined $350 plus court costs of $107.
All three players have been suspended indefinitely by coach Mark Fox.

Charges have been filed in the hit-and-run accident which killed Jayson Ray, a UNC mascot, last spring:

A Paramus man was indicted today on charges that he struck and killed a University of North Carolina mascot with his SUV last year.

Armen Hovsepian’s driver’s license was suspended when the Mercury Mountaineer he was driving hit Tar Heels mascot Jayson Ray in March 2007 as he walked along a shoulder on Route 4 East, Bergen County prosecutors said.

Ray, 21, and his team were staying in a nearby hotel for the NCAA East Regional finals.

Hovsepian’s 52-year-old father, Gajik, told authorities that he was the one who was driving the SUV, and based on his statements, investigators ruled the crash accidental, police said at the time.

Several months later, investigators received a tip from a witness that it was the son who was the driver, they said.

Abuse of NCAA Transfer Rules

2008-10-25T12:18:00.000-04:00

There is a must-read article by Dana O'Neil at ESPN.com on the abuse of hardship transfer waivers by coaches:

Last season, the NCAA granted immediate eligibility to Tyler Smith after he transferred from Iowa to Tennessee to be near his gravely ill father, who lived in Pulaski, Tenn.
The decision, invoking a hardship waiver that covers everything from injury to illness to financial hardship has been in place since 1991, was lauded by many as a student-friendly act on the part of the NCAA.
Like most paths paved with good intentions, this one has been trampled.
Players are coming out of the woodwork with ailing parents or other family members, begging to head back home … or at least in the extended geographic footprint of home.
It's got coaches piping mad on both sides of the tables, with some calling this just another example of savvy rule manipulation and circumvention, and others arguing it's an effort to do the right thing by a kid and, yes, perhaps by a program.
At Big East Media Day on Wednesday, Jim Boeheim and Bobby Gonzalez were separated by just a few tables but the two coaching peers may as well have walked 20 paces turned, and fired.
"To me the waiver makes absolutely no sense," said Boeheim, a National Association of Basketball Coaches board member who has been working with the NABC to convince the NCAA that the rule needs to be tossed. "It's the most ridiculous thing that's ever happened. If you need to come home to be with someone in your family who is sick, that's when you absolutely should sit out. How are you going to be with someone who is sick when you're playing basketball, going to practice and going to games?"
But Gonzalez, who has two players waiting in the wings, sees things a touch differently. Herb Pope, who came to Seton Hall from New Mexico State, is awaiting an appeal from the NCAA after his initial attempt at immediate eligibility was rejected, and Keon Lawrence, who transferred from Missouri to Seton Hall, is expected to file for a hardship waiver so he can play in the second semester.
Pope, from Pittsburgh, was shot four times while a senior in high school. He chose New Mexico State, Gonzalez said, to be far away from his hometown. But when coach Reggie Theus left for a job with the Sacramento Kings, Pope wanted to come home. . . .
The truth is Pope, a one-time Parade All-American, and Lawrence, who led Missouri in scoring last year, would turn bottom-feeding Seton Hall into a bona-fide player in the crowded Big East. The Pirates were picked to finish 13th in the 16-team league.
Critics argue that's all Gonzalez cares about, that the cry to do good by the kids is nothing more than a smoke screen to do good by his program.
To which Gonzalez, who is nothing if not a coaching maverick, replies, "And?"
"People like to say that I'm taking advantage of the rules to get a kid eligible. That's what every coach in America is doing," Gonzalez said. "It's so easy for all these coaches on the NABC board to sit here and say all this stuff about how this is wrong. Let me tell you something: If they had a 6-8 All-American and some rule they could use to get him eligible, it would be like they all of a sudden found religion or found Jesus."

Given his handling of the Michael Glover case, it is no great suprise that Gonzalez's response boils down to 'We will attempt to win at all costs since everyone else is.' It would be poetic justice if the NCAA took Gonzalez at his word; that this is primarily about the success of his program, not the welfare of Herb Pope, and denied the waiver.

Medical Travails; FSU's Brave New World

2008-10-23T10:17:00.000-04:00

Georgia Tech guard D'Andre Bell is out for the season:

Senior starter D’Andre Bell said he was always taught to have a Plan A, B, C and D.

“Plan A seems to be put on hold,” the 6-foot-6 wing said Wednesday. “Now I’m going to reach for Plan B.”
Tech announced Wednesday that a condition called spinal stenosis will keep Bell from playing this season.

Diving for a loose ball during an Oct. 10 conditioning workout, Bell’s head collided with Zachery Peacock’s leg. Bell felt numbness, then tingling in his extremities.

An examination by Dr. John Heller, a spine surgeon at the Emory Orthopaedics & Spine Center, revealed Bell had an abnormal narrowing, or stenosis, in the cervical portion of his spine.

It’s a condition in which the spinal canal narrows and compresses the spinal cord. Bell needs surgery, whether or not he wants to play basketball again, and plans to have the operation over winter break.

“It’s truly a blessing that we found it,” Bell said. “I’m looking at my situation from all the positive angles, and I’m just going to play the cards that I’ve been dealt.”

Best wishes to D'Andre on a successful surgery and a full and quick recovery.

Santa Clara forward John Bryant is recovering well from a stabbing incident on September 27:

"I'm back to 100 percent right now," Bryant said. "I have a couple of scars, nothing big. It's not bad."
During the first weekend of school, Bryant and a few friends left a party and exchanged words with three men. One of the men knocked Bryant to the ground and another came at him from behind and stabbed him. He was knifed twice on the right side of his lower back and once on the left—with three inch-long scars to show for it. He needed 14 stitches to close the wounds.
"He was talking and we said, 'We don't want to mess with you' and started walking away," Bryant said. "He's not a good character. You could just tell. Wrong place, wrong time."
Bryant considers himself fortunate—and he said he's learned a lesson about not putting himself in situations where bad things could happen. He knows this could have turned out much worse or even been life-threatening.
"You reach to your back and there's all that blood and you wonder what's going on. I was a little scared," he said. "I was lucky not having any internal injuries. It just really put things in perspective. The coaches are always talking about being in the right place at the right time."

The suspect in the case was arrested for armed robbery soon after the incident:

Santa Clara police arrested Jose Domingo Segovia, 18, of Santa Clara on suspicion of assault with a deadly weapon in connection with the stabbing of John Bryant, a star center on the men's basketball team. . . .
Early Saturday, police received reports that four Santa Clara students had been robbed at knife point in the 500 block of Washington Street, just a few blocks off campus. As officers responded to the scene, they spotted the suspects' vehicle, a 2002 gold Hyundai, and attempted to stop the men. The suspects abandoned the car and tried to escape on foot, according to police Lt. Mike Sellers.
Officers set up a perimeter and began receiving calls from neighbors about people hiding in their back yard. Police found two of the men hiding in a yard; they later identified and arrested Segovia as the third suspect in the robbery.

Florida State wide receiver Bert Reed has been suspended for Saturday's game - for violating FSU's policy on class attendance (!!!):

After Wednesday's practice, Bowden said: "Bert Reed, to save a lot of speculation, is suspended because of missing classes.
"I'm afraid some people were making too much out of it, making it into something else. It's missing classes."

Reed was disciplined under a more strict athletic department policy put in place at the request of FSU President T.K. Wetherell because of what he views as high absenteeism.

A student-athlete with "three unexcused absences in any course" will be ineligible to play in one game. Four unexcused absences will result in missing 30 percent of that season's competition.

Is FSU truly entering a Brave New World of academic accountability? One can only hope. . .

Myles Brand and Newspeak

2008-10-20T15:56:00.000-04:00

"The NCAA is at war with academic underachievement. The NCAA has always been at war with academic underachievement."

No, Myles Brand did not say that. But that was the first thing that came to mind when he issued his latest self-congratulatory missive on academic reform and student-athlete graduation rates. Although Dr. Brand does not have a history of taking criticism well, here is my response:

What are you going to believe...myth or the facts?

Do you want to continue believing the popular myth, the false perception, the uninformed bias that student-athletes as a lot are dumb jocks?

This is a classic straw man argument Myles. 'Dumb Jock' is your term. What critics are employing it?

Or do you want to believe the data that say student-athletes are, on average, graduating at higher rates from college than other students?

As I have noted before this is the truth. And it is a good story. Stick with it, but also do us all a favor and be open about the failures in NCAA athletics rather than white-washing them.

Last week, I wrote about the dumb jock myth. It has been around a long time. It pervades popular culture about the academic status of student-athletes. From the Broadway musical Good News in 1927 to Tom Wolfe's I am Charlotte Simmons in 2005, the perception persists that college athletes - especially football players and male basketball players - are coming to campus only to play sports and avoid classrooms.

The perception exists because it is partly true. Admit it and address it. Don't ignore it.

Commenting on last week's blog entitled "The 'Dumb Jock' Myth is Dumb," craigjjs wrote, "Right, the jocks are all Rhodes Scholars. Let's hear the stats for the major sports."

Okay, here are the facts when you look at the graduation rates released earlier this week. These are the rates that include the success and failure of transfer student-athletes (which the federal rates simply ignore as academic dropouts and undercount by more than 37,000 students annually).

But IGNORE students who leave eligible, but do not transfer. "The GSR also allows institutions to subtract student-athletes who leave their institutions prior to graduation as long as they would have been academically eligible to compete had they remained." Tell us Myles, what was the fate of the 18,655 students who, according to your own numbers, 'Left Eligible'? So long as they are excluded from your calculations the Graduation Success Rate will be no such thing. Unless, that is, you are a 1984 fan. Given this flaw, the statistics rolled out here are as meaningful as Stalinist production quotas:

For the freshmen football student-athletes in the Football Bowl Championship institutions (the ones who draw the most attention and the largest revenue producers) who entered in 2001, the graduation rate is 66 percent. Two-thirds of all football players graduate in six years (the same time span the federal government uses for all students).

Basketball student-athletes who were part of the same cohort at the same institutions graduated at 65 percent, one percentage point lower.

When you look at the entire class of freshmen from the 2001 cohort, the rate is 79 percent. Nearly eight of every 10 student-athletes earn a degree in six years. And every demographic is doing better than their counterparts in the student body (as measured by the federal calculation) except for white males who trail by two percentage points.

All of these numbers have been trending upward over the last six years. If, as I noted last week, you count student-athletes who return to school over a 10 year period, the graduation rate is 88 percent, almost nine of 10!

What is the graduation rate for all students over ten years? What is the graduation rate for all students under the GSR method? Your statistics are meaningless without a point of comparison.

So what, craigjjs contends. "You forgot to compare the majors when you cooked up your statistics. I would guess that the 'recreational science' and similar majors tend to receive higher grades and find graduating a bit easier than those of the serious students."

We had the same concern, so we looked at majors for Division I student-athletes in 2004. Student-athletes were underrepresented by about four percent compared to all other students in the humanities and by about 9 percent in sciences. They were overrepresented compared to all other students by about five percent in social sciences and three percent in business. Both groups were about the same in education majors.

Interesting information, but your analysis is begging. In fact it is nonexistent.

Across the spectrum of Division I, there is little evidence of "clustering," or disproportionate numbers of student-athletes in certain majors.

Let me be clear! You can find examples of football or men's basketball programs with unacceptably low graduation rates. You can also find teams where unexplainably large numbers of football or men's basketball athletes are clustered in certain majors.

So are you going to do anything about it? Will you, for example, address the General Studies Program at the University of Michigan?

But these examples are not the rule. They drive the myth. They are no more valid as a generalization than to argue that all student-athletes are great scholars, which some are.

Silly me for asking. I guess you are not going to anything about it except continue on your merry rhetorical way.

What we have seen during the last few years - and what we will see increasingly in the future - are trends that in time will have most teams in most sports at most institutions graduating above or well above the 60 percent threshold where other students on average graduate.

By what measure? Federal standards or your own confected numbers?

Why do we know this and what is the cause?

Caveat lector, self-congratulation ahead.

Four years ago, the presidents in Division I put in place the most comprehensive package of academic reforms ever in the history of college sports. The package had three key components:

* Higher standards--Entering freshmen had to present successful completion of 16 academic core courses in high school and a sliding-scale achievement on both grade-point average and standardized tests. Enrolled student-athletes had to make 20 percent progress each year toward a declared major (and one open to all students).

* Better metrics--We look at academic performance semester by semester to track whether members of a team are on course to graduate, and we examine the success or failure of all student-athletes, including transfers.

* Sanctions--Teams that fail to meet threshold requirements each year will lose scholarships and teams that fail to perform academically over time could lose additional scholarships, be withheld from post-season tournaments or even be decertified.

We've never taken such an approach before. There is no place for low-performing teams to run and hide. Next spring, the first post-season sanctions will be leveled against teams that show a pattern of academic underachieving and no improvement. If that fails to get the attention of coaches, athletics directors and presidents, the entire athletics program could be withheld from NCAA championships.

Forgive me for being underwhelmed by scholarship sanctions which can remove, at most, ten percent of the scholarships - which amounts to two basketball scholarships or nine football scholarships.

That's going to leave a mark.

Hardly. Especially when so many teams flunking by the NCAA's own standards are merely warned. Is the same approach going to be adopted where post-season eligibility is concerned?

Our goal from the outset has been to change behavior. We want student-athletes to get an education and graduate. We would rather reward improvement than punish low performance. But we are dead serious about better results.

If you are dead serious about better results, it is time to get dead serious about punishing low performance. Placing 100% rather than 10% of scholarships in jeopardy would be a good start.

The dumb jock myth has always been an unfortunate generalization that unfairly stigmatized the great majority of student-athletes, including the majority of football and male basketball athletes. And the academic reform effort currently underway makes it even more untrue.

So, what are you going to depend on now for your perception of college athletes as students...an uninformed bias that says all jocks are dumb or the undeniable data that shows on average student-athletes are doing as well or better than other students?

I am certainly not going to depend on YOUR data Myles; at the moment I have more trust in the government than I do in the NCAA.

It's a shame to let the facts get in the way of a good story, but they just don't support the myth that jocks are dumb.

Well done rhetorically Myles; begin and end with the straw man argument.

Soap Opera News; Random Misbehaviour; UD on Graduation Rates; D-Day for FSU

2008-10-18T13:26:00.000-04:00

Oh, brother: Terry Bowden says Tommy didn't meet expectations

"So, did Tommy Bowden deserve what happened to him Monday? Unfortunately, yes," Terry Bowden wrote on Yahoo.com. "He deserved it because he, of all people, knew what to expect when he got into this business. We grew up in it.

"He knew what to expect when he went to Clemson. He knew that no matter where you go, there is an expectation of success that must be met. After nine years at Clemson, he knew exactly what those expectations were and he knew they had not been met."

Iowa coach Ferentz suspends son from all team activities

James Ferentz, a freshman offensive lineman, was cited by Iowa City Police for drinking underage early Friday morning.

In a statement, Kirk Ferentz said he was extremely disappointed with his son's behavior. He says his son is suspended from all team activities for an indefinite time and will also be required to attend counseling sessions and perform community service for the next six weeks.

G Fields, two freshman suspended indefinitely by Nevada

Nevada starting guard Brandon Fields and two incoming freshmen have been suspended from the basketball team indefinitely after being cited for misdemeanor petty larceny, Wolf Pack coach Mark Fox said Thursday.

London Giles, a 6-foot-3 guard from Dallas, and Ahyaro Phillips, a 6-8 forward from New Orleans, were suspended along with Fields after their release by Sparks police following an undisclosed incident on Wednesday, Fox said in a statement.

"I am extremely disappointed to learn of this situation," Fox said. "I do not know all of the facts right now and will not have any further comment until I have a better understanding of the situation."

What wonderful leadership from a returning starter. What wonderful leadership from their coach.

See the following posts by University Diaries on release of NCAA propaganda I mean graduation rates:

Snapshots from Home: Graduation Rates
San Diego State: The Gift that Keeps on Giving
Notes from the Intellectual Desert
Scathing Online Schoolmarm
The University UD Calls. . .

Meanwhile, FSU faces the NCAA Infractions Committee today. There is a good wrap-up of the story here by Andrew Carter of the Orlando Sentinel, and he is doing his best to live-blog the action here.

Footnotes, Foreign Misadventure, and Random Misbehaviour

2008-10-16T15:05:00.002-04:00

Michael Glover's lawsuit against the NCAA and the Big East over his (in)eligibility has been dismissed in federal court:

He argued in a lawsuit in August that the NCAA never gave a reason for invalidating his entire senior year transcript from American Christian Academy in Pennsylvania.

The NCAA argued that the Rhode Island federal court system had no jurisdiction over the case, and the Big East argued that it didn't belong in the lawsuit.
U.S. District Judge Ernest Torres dismissed both defendants from the lawsuit after hearing arguments Tuesday.

BYU forward Chris Collinsworth was stabbed Tuesday night while working as a Mormon missionary in Sydney, Australia:

Collinsworth's father, Jeff, said from his Mapleton, Utah, home that his son told him that he and his companion on the mission, David Ferguson, were walking in Sydney when they were jumped by a pack of men. Jeff Collinsworth said a scuffle ensued with both his son and Ferguson being stabbed multiple times. He said Chris' shirt was pulled over his head and he was stabbed in the back. The fight ended when a car came up behind the fight and the driver turned on his lights and honked his horn.
The Associated Press reported Wednesday that Ferguson was stabbed in his hand, tendons were cut and he required surgery. Jeff Collinsworth said that his son did not require surgery. There were, however, stab wounds close to his son's kidney so multiple scans of his internal organs were conducted to ensure that he didn't have any internal injuries.

Best wishes to Chris on a full and quick recovery.

Notre Dame Tight End Will Yeatman has been suspended for the season:

Because of the Sept. 21 arrest, Will Yeatman faces up to 180 days in jail for violation of the terms of a previous case, in which he pleaded guilty in February to misdemeanor charges of driving while intoxicated and reckless driving.
The plea was part of a deferred sentencing agreement made with St. Joseph County prosecutors, who dropped a third charge of criminal recklessness. The sophomore, who also plays lacrosse at Notre Dame, had been arrested and charged Jan. 28 after he drove his car on a campus sidewalk.
Under the one-year agreement, the drunken driving charge would have been dismissed if Yeatman did not commit any crimes during that time.
But Yeatman was arrested and charged Sept. 21 with minor consumption of alcohol, resisting arrest and false informing after police raided the house. The last two charges have since been dropped.

Michigan running back Michael Milano has been suspended for the season:

The university's department of public safety is investigating an alleged aggravated assault on Michigan hockey player Steve Kampfer that took place at approximately 2:25 a.m. Sunday in Ann Arbor. The incident report states that the victim was taken to University Hospital.
Police identified the alleged attacker as a 22-year-old male from Ohio. Milano, 22, hails from Rocky River, Ohio. A 5-foot-7, 193-pound walk-on running back who spent two years on Michigan's wrestling team, Milano appeared in two games last season but has yet to play this year.

San Diego State forward Lorrenzo Wade has been suspended indefinitely:

Wade was released on bail after pleading not guilty to first-degree burglary of an inhabited dwelling in San Diego Superior Court. If convicted, he faces up to six years in prison.
Police say a woman in an apartment in the city's College district woke to the sound of knocking at her door on Sept. 21 and then heard people enter the apartment. She waited until the intruders left before going outside and confronting Wade and his companion.
Wade, who lives in the same apartment complex as the woman, turned himself in to police on Oct. 7.
Wade's attorney, Richard Muir, insisted his client didn't take the television. He said he knocked on the door to see if she could move her car.

Bridge for sale! Bridge for sale!

NCAA Dishes Latest Propaganda; IHE Swallows

2008-10-15T16:09:00.003-04:00

On one hand I am quite happy. As a group, NCAA student-athletes continue to graduate at a rate of 64%, 2% better than the general student populations. On the other, it is disgraceful that the NCAA continues to utilize confected measures like the GSR, or 'Graduation Success Rates' to propagandize its success. Overall, the story is good, but this sort of Salt Bath Writing* serves another purpose - allowing the NCAA to ignore its areas of abject failure, since as graduation rates in Football and Men's Basketball which remain under 50%. What really makes my blood boil, however, is journalism on the latest data-manipulation efforts by the NCAA which reads like an NCAA press release. Such is the case with this article, published today at Inside Higher Ed:

Myles Brand, president of the National Collegiate Athletic Association, wants to cease the propagation of “the so-called ‘dumb jock’ myth,” as he puts it. Trumpeting new data showing that NCAA Division I athletes are graduating at the highest rates ever — even as players in high-profile sports such as baseball, football and men’s and women’s basketball continue to lag — Brand and other NCAA officials argue that recently adopted and stricter academic accountability rules are steadily sidelining old stereotypes.

How about someone from outside the NCAA? Did you bother to interview them? If so, why are they not quoted in the article?

The NCAA reports graduation rates for Division I athletes in two ways — the Department of Education-developed federal rate and an NCAA-developed “Graduation Success Rate.” The GSR, as it is called, was developed by the NCAA to assess long-term academic success at the request of many member colleges who found the federal graduation rates misleading. Unlike the federal figure, the GSR does not penalize institutions for departing transfers who leave in good academic standing; it also counts incoming transfer students and midyear enrollees.

Of course then. It must all be good. The dirty little secret is that the GSR "allows institutions to subtract student-athletes who leave their institutions prior to graduation as long as they would have been academically eligible to compete had they remained." In other words calling it a 'Graduation Success Rate' is Orwellian language at its best.

By counting these athletes, the GSR tracks about 28,000 more students than the 72,000 tracked by the federal graduation data. And since they take into account athletes who left their institutions in good standing, GSR percentages are higher than federal graduation rates in virtually all cases. Still, not all athletes who leave in good standing enter another institution. Todd Petr, NCAA managing director of research, said 90 percent of students in good standing who leave college transfer successfully to another institution.

Whoops, Todd let some of the fine print slip out. 90% 'Transfer Successfully', which does not, of course, mean that they graduate.

Both the federal and the NCAA metrics, however, determine their percentages based on the number of students who graduate within six years of entering college. . . .

Except that the GSR deliberately leaves some students out so the numbers can be inflated.

As the federal rate is the only method with which to compare athletes to other students — because no data comparable to the Graduation Success Rate exist — it shows that two percent more Division I athletes graduate in six years than the 62 percent national average for all students at Division I colleges and universities. . . .

At least the author of this article did not fall for comparing general student-body graduation rate with NCAA GSR data. That Apples to Oranges comparison is, of course, what the NCAA would like you to make.

“We are continuing to make progress on the aspirational goal, which I very much advocate, of an 80 percent GSR,” Brand said during a news conference in which he further detailed some of the statistical improvements in the seven years that the NCAA has used its own metric to determine graduation rates. “The ultimate success, though, is in the lives of the student-athletes themselves. Approximately 4,000 additional student-athletes graduated from college over the past six years because of these increased graduation rates and increased academic performance.” . . .

Myles Brand, why don't you make it an aspirational goal to achieve a graduation rate in all sports which is at least equal to the overall 62% graduation rate in the general student body? No need to answer. We know. That would undermine the revenue sports like Basketball and Football which ultimately pay your salary.

What all of this systematically ignores, however, are the immense advantages given to Student-Athletes. One wonders how well John and Jane Student would perform if they were given exclusive dorms, special refectories, access to free private tutoring, and were funneled into General Studies and Sports Management majors. A sight higher than 64% one would guess. Of course most student-athletes do not take those 'easy majors', but they are among the unfortunate friendly-fire casualties from the latest salvo of propaganda from the NCAA.

*See University Diaries for October 22, 2007

FSU Scandal: Brenda Monk Breaks Her Silence

2008-10-15T14:51:00.002-04:00

Brenda Monk, the tutor at the center of the FSU cheating scandal, has broken her silence and will travel at her own expense to the Infractions Hearing in Indianapolis on Saturday:

"I worked 16 hours a day," said Monk, 59, who is now a principal at the school at the Lake City Correctional Facility. "If I wanted to be dishonest and type the papers for the students, I probably could have had an eight-hour work day like everybody else in the office. But I wanted the students to learn. I am not a dishonest person, and I want the NCAA to know I'm not a dishonest person."
The school also has alleged that she instructed one student-athlete to enter answers to an online test on behalf of another student-athlete, the situation that led to her being put on administrative leave in April 2007 (and "thrown out of my office") and her resignation in July. She said that it was a lapse in judgment — not fraud — and that fatigue was a factor.

Actually, it seems to have been simultaneously a lapse of judgment, AND fraud.

"I never want to use an excuse, but I was tired," she said. "And I made a mistake. … I never got a chance to talk about it and I would have liked to have had that. … One mistake should not have ended my career at Florida State."

I am having a great deal of difficulty in being sympathetic. It was, rightly, a career-ending mistake.

Lastly, the school has said Monk was guilty of another mistake, providing at least six student-athletes with answers for online quizzes in an online music course, either directly or with a study guide she had compiled. FSU has admitted that there was confusion about when the class allowed open-book quizzes.
She has denied giving out answers. The unnamed tutor, however, told investigators that he saw Monk helping student-athletes on quizzes and followed her lead. He's said to have helped 54 student-athletes; he also said Goldsmith told him to provide test answers.
"It was unfortunate that the music class was not monitored the way it should have been monitored and that the tutor was not monitored the way he should have monitored," Monk said, echoing FSU's reports, including that no coaches were involved. "I have to take part of the blame because I was part of the staff. … But when you read it, it's as if I orchestrated the whole thing."

The best potential spin for Monk that can be put on this is that the fraud happened under her watch. Not an enviable situation to explain your way out of. . .

Series:
1. FSU Cheating Scandal
2. Florida State Scandal: Kudos to President Wetherell
3. STUDENT-Athlete Garrett Johnson Fires Both Barrels
4. No Sunshine in Florida?
5. FSU Scandal: Brenda Monk Breaks Her Silence

Link Roundup October 13

2008-10-13T15:41:00.000-04:00

Gregg Doyel pleads: Don't Hose the Hoosiers

Indiana basketball is laying there, belly exposed, hands tied behind its back. The NCAA is standing overhead, holding a very large hammer. About to swing. Here it comes ...

Don't do it, NCAA. Please. Don't hammer Indiana. The Hoosiers have had enough. . . .

The NCAA is supposed to catch cheaters and see that they are punished, so let's do some inventory here. Indiana got caught -- check. Indiana has been punished -- check. But if the NCAA feels the need to flex its muscle later this month when it announces its findings against Indiana, here's an idea:

Show mercy to the innocents left behind at Indiana, and announce that Kelvin Sampson has received the NCAA's death penalty -- a lifetime ban from college sports. Can't coach again. Can't work in administration. Can't even walk into a college basketball arena to use the bathroom.

I wholeheardtedly agree with Doyel on Sampson, but the NCAA does need to make an example of Indiana.

Doug Lederman notes the on-field success of Northwestern and Vandy

Entering this weekend’s games, teams like Stanford and Rice have winning records in their conferences, and Duke University’s squad, long an Atlantic Coast Conference doormat, has a 3-2 record. . . .
But teams from two selective universities, in particular, are prompting most of the discussion about this being the year of the brainiac universities in big-time football. Vanderbilt and Northwestern are both undefeated, at 5-0, and both of them are ranked in the top 25 in at least one of the key college football polls (Vanderbilt in the low teens, and Northwestern just sneaking into the USA Today coaches’ poll at 22nd).

No thanks, Doug, for giving both teams the Insider Higher Ed kiss of death. Both teams lost on Saturday, with Mississippi State taking down Vanderbilt 17-14, and Michigan State whooping Northwestern 37-20.

University Diaries unleashes her latest tirade against San Diego State

If you’re University Diaries, it just doesn’t get any better than San Diego State University, a bottomless jockhole run by a president who can’t think of anything to do with the university other than run losing plays on its sports fields. Eaten out of house and home by athletics, SDSU has no money, poor academic quality, and shitty infrastructure. President Weber’s solution is to raise student fees enormously to pay … not for classrooms and professors, but for loser sports teams.

JoePa quietly coaches Penn State to a 7-0 record

MADISON, Wis. -- Forget the press box. Joe Paterno could have coached this one from his living room.
A sore hip relegated Paterno to a perch high above the field for the second week in a row -- and once again, not having their iconic leader on the sidelines didn't matter to No. 6 Penn State.

NCAA confirms penalties against Arizona State over staged fight

INDIANAPOLIS---The Administrative Committee of the NCAA Division I Championships/Sports Management Cabinet has upheld the sanctions imposed against the Arizona State baseball head coach, as well as two student-athletes, for their actions during the 2008 NCAA Division I Baseball Championship.

The sanctions stemmed from the altercation between Arizona State baseball student-athletes Brett Wallace and Ike Davis, in the moments before their 2008 Super Regional game against Fresno State University. Arizona State University had appealed the penalties assessed against head coach Pat Murphy and student-athletes Brett Wallace and Ike Davis.

Geeks, Freaks, and Football

2008-10-05T11:30:00.001-04:00

Team A has an aggregate total of 11 points in the Fulmer Cup. Team B has scored a paltry 3.

University A, only 5 years ago, was placed on NCAA probation for ‘Lack of Institutional Control.’ University B has had a grand total of 1 Major Infractions case, which occurred 16 years ago and was not serious enough to warrant probation.

University A has an athletics budget of $52 million, including $378,000 in salary and perks for its Athletic Director, and also has a Deputy Athletics Director, nine Associate Athletic Directors, with a tenth Associate Athletic Director starting next month who will make $222,000 in salary and perks.

University B has an athletics budget of $40 million, but abolished its Athletics Department five years ago, and coaches now report directly to the University’s Vice Chancellor for University Affairs.

Team A’s stadium, which opened in 1994, has a record capacity of 44,267, and is going through a $102 million expansion. Team B’s stadium, which opened in 1981, seats 39,790 and is undergoing $42 million in renovations.

Team A’s coach makes a base salary of $1.6 million, with incentives for another $400,000, a side payment of $250,000 from a sports marketing company, in addition to perks which include country-club fees, a new SUV, and unlimited use of helicopters and jets for University purposes. He has also received a total of 900,000 in interest-free loans which are being forgiven at a rate of $100,000 a year. Team B’s coach makes $1 million a year.

Team A graduates 46% of its football players, Team B 85%. On his off day last Saturday, the starting Right Tackle for Team B spent 5 hours in the Library.

One of these teams has a 5-0 record, including wins against two ranked teams, and its opponents have 4 National Championships and 46 bowl wins amongst them. One of these teams has a 1-4 record, with its sole win coming against a 2-2 FCS team in one of the worst DI conferences in the country. Which is which?

Team A, Rutgers, is the poster-child for what has become the conventional wisdom in the NCAA – that you must spend your way to the top. Team B is Vanderbilt, but it is Vanderbilt that has the 5-0 record.

Kudos all-around to the Vanderbilt administration, its football coach Bobby Johnson, and, most importantly, its STUDENT-Athletes on their 14-13 win over Auburn yesterday. There is an excellent article by Chris Low at ESPN which provides an excellent insight into the program. Here are some telling excerpts:

….
It's only been since World War II that the No. 19-ranked Commodores last started a season 5-0, but that's the opportunity that awaits them Saturday when No. 14-ranked Auburn visits Vanderbilt Stadium in the kind of storyline usually reserved for Hollywood.

Come on. Vanderbilt, a top-20 school academically, playing a game in October that means something in the SEC race and ESPN's "College GameDay" on hand to watch it?

"I have a lot of pride in the fact that I'm at a place like Vanderbilt," said senior safety Reshard Langford, one of the team captains. "Not everybody can do what we do. I keep my head high every day, because this is a special place." . . .

Bobby Johnson had a similar vision when he arrived in Nashville in 2002. At the time, he was the fifth different head football coach at Vanderbilt in the preceding 13 years.

But whereas some of his predecessors fought the rigid academic standards that make coaching at Vanderbilt such a daunting challenge in the SEC, Johnson embraced them.

His recruiting pitch, though, included a twist.

"We don't want you if you just want to come here to be a doctor or a lawyer," Johnson said. "But if you want to come here to be a doctor and a lawyer and you also want to be a good football player, then this is the place for you." . . .

"Bobby has just the right temperament and understanding of this place, and that's important," said David Williams, Vanderbilt's vice chancellor for university affairs and athletics. "Not only do you need time and stability to do this job, but you need someone who is on their own mission and that mission is, 'We're going to get it done here, and we're going to maintain it.'" . . .

Johnson, who coached powerhouse Division I-AA teams at academically renowned Furman before coming to Vanderbilt, estimates that probably only about 15 percent of the recruiting pool the rest of the SEC works off of is available to Vanderbilt because of the school's strict entrance requirements.

And just because that 15 percent consists of prospects with strong academic backgrounds doesn't mean all the other schools aren't recruiting them. . . .

Links: Fulmer Cup History; Rutgers AD Salaries; Greg Schiano Salary; Vanderbilt Reorganization one and two

Link Roundup October 2

2008-10-02T11:58:00.000-04:00

The NCAA has reaffirmed penalties in two infractions cases:

The first, involving the University of Arkansas, surrounds the vacation of the 2004 and 2005 Outdoor Track and Field titles, in which Olympic sprinter Tyson Gay was instrumental. Arkansas, despite being a double-repeat violator, had whined that the penalties were excessive since they were the result of actions by a 'rogue assistant coach.' Kudos to the NCAA for standing its ground.

The second involves a show-cause coaching ban levied against former Long Beach State assistant basketball coach Reggie Howard, who was at the center of a doozy of an infractions case in which the judgment came down in March.

Elsewhere in the blogosphere:

There is an excellent post by SportsProf on Harvard basketball coach Tommy Amaker's continuing moves to upset the apple cart of Ivy League athletics.

University Diaries continues her chronicling of the criminal adventures of the University of Montana football team.

'Redefining' Division III?

2008-10-02T10:56:00.001-04:00

WOW! A MOMENT ON TENURE-TRACK TO BLOG! Too bad it is the result of a sick day. . .

There is an interesting article at Inside Higher Education which should be required reading for anyone concerned with preserving NCAA Division III, which remains the last bastion of true amateurism in college sports. With the failure this spring of proposals that would have split Division III into two divisions, some institutions continue to advocate nixing its core principle:

"[Division III Institutions] Shall not award financial aid to any student on the basis of athletics leadership, ability, participation or performance."

From the article:

The Division III Presidents Council released a report last week outlining some of the key issues that the division must address as its membership continues to swell and now that proposals to create either a subdivision within it or a completely separate Division IV failed last spring. . . .

Perhaps most striking is the report’s notation that nearly two-thirds of the surveyed members of the division responded that “consideration of leadership in athletics (e.g., team captain) in the awarding of financial aid should be allowed provided it is consistent with the consideration of leadership in other student activities.” . . .

“I nearly fell off my chair when I saw that in the survey,” says John Fry, president of Franklin & Marshall College and chair of the President’s Council. “When one of your bedrock principles is in question, that’s more than a philosophical difference. What would separate us from Divisions I and II? One of the big differences between us is how we view financial aid. We put student first and athlete next. Frankly, if that changes, I don’t know what we’re doing.” . . .

This, ultimately, is the heart of the matter:

Some argue that enrollment pressures might cause a tuition-strapped institution — such as the profile of many new Division III members — to favor offering some sort of financial aid that considers athletic ability. Partial financial aid for athletic leadership might help these institutions garner more recruits and, in time, more revenue from their tuition. These institutions have a place, loyalists argue — just not in Division III.
“If financial aid is driving enrollment, then there’s another option for those schools, and that’s Division II,” says James T. Harris, president of Widener University and a member of the Division III President’s Council. “I can’t foresee a day when Division III would allow athletic scholarships. I don’t think that’s a reasonable future.”

EXCELLENT. And it should be noted that any athlete at a Division III school is perfectly welcome, and indeed encouraged, to apply for need-based financial aid. It is, of course, the only reason that a middle-class kid like myself was able to attend, and ski at a college like Bates, where the comprehensive fee this year hit $49,350.

Michael Glover, Seton Hall, and Diploma Mills

2008-09-11T12:54:00.002-04:00

The NCAA is almost invariably reactive rather proactive when dealing with serious problems. That said, they should be applauded for their moves to reject high school transcripts from a number of private schools which have been tarred, in most cases not unjustly, as Diploma Mills. For background see these articles in the Washington Post, and the New York Times. Now, Seton Hall recruit Michael Glover, whose senior year coursework at American Christian Academy was invalidated, is suing the NCAA and the Big East:

Michael Glover, the Seton Hall basketball recruit who was unable to play last season when the NCAA declared him an academic non-qualifier, is suing the NCAA and the Big East in an effort to get himself declared eligible to play for Seton Hall this upcoming season.

According to the lawsuit, filed Wednesday in Providence -- where the Big East offices are located -- Glover is seeking to have the NCAA reverse its prior ruling and declare him qualified to play, and to receive an athletic scholarship. He is also seeking to be awarded financial damages equivalent to the cost of four years' tuition at Seton Hall, plus punitive damages for his having missed the 2007-08 season.
Last fall, the NCAA decided to invalidate Glover's senior year at American Christian.
That made Glover a non-qualifier, but after he appealed the decision, he was allowed to practice with the team for a while at the start of the season. However, in December, the NCAA denied Glover's final appeal, making him ineligible to play and ineligible to receive scholarship money from the school. According to NCAA rules, the only way for Glover to qualify to play Division 1 would be to go to a junior college and receive his associate's degree, then transfer to a four-year school. . . .

Unsurprisingly, the story is rather deeper than the academic, eligibility, and legal travails of one prospective student-athlete. American Christian Academy closed its High School this summer:

American Christian Academy, a tiny private school in Aston, was known nationally last winter for having one of the best high-school-age basketball players in the country.
On Thursday, the school is expected to eliminate its high school academic and athletic programs - including basketball - in a swirl of controversy.
American Christian, which officials said would continue to operate its day-care center and programs for youngsters in pre-kindergarten through sixth grade, allowed postgraduates to play on its teams for the last two years. School officials were expected to leave postgraduates off the teams next season. Now, it seems, there won't be any teams at all. . . .
"We have not been given any reason whatsoever of why the school is closing except that it's financially better to close the school," boys' basketball coach Tony Bergeron said. "In my estimation, that doesn't make any sense."
Bergeron helped develop Tyreke Evans into one of the nation's top players. Evans, the most valuable player at this year's McDonald's All-America Game, is expected to play next season at Memphis.
But the boys' basketball program has drawn criticism. Former coach Ray Carroll publicly criticized American Christian's academic standards for many of his former players, including Evans, after he was fired in June 2006, after one season. Carroll suggested that the school was a diploma mill.

Recent comments made by Seton Hall coach Bobby Gonzalez to Andy Katz at ESPN also illustrate the primary thing driving all of this. In the hyper-competitive world of revenue NCAA sports, coaches choose, or are forced, to take both short cuts and risks with athletes who are academically marginal:

Bobby Gonzalez is clear that in order for Seton Hall to be competitive in the 16-team Big East, he's got to take a gamble or two.
The third-year Pirates coach isn't hiding from his objective. He accepted two high-profile transfers within the past week -- Keon Lawrence from Missouri and Herb Pope from New Mexico State -- with the hope that both will be eligible for this season. . . .
"If you want to get into the top six or seven in this conference, you've got to be creative and you've got to take transfers. I'm not sure what they're saying about Gonzo, saying that I'm taking too many borderline guys, a gamble. But the [Seton Hall] president backs me, and I feel they're all worth the gamble.". . .
Gonzalez said Lawrence won't be academically eligible until after the first semester because the junior doesn't have enough transferable credits from Missouri. He would have to pass 15 credits in the first semester to be eligible by mid-December, the coach said. . . .
Meanwhile, Gonzalez is waiting to see if Michael Glover, who was declared ineligible last year at Seton Hall, would win his lawsuit against the Big East and the NCAA to gain eligibility.
"If he were eligible last year we would have won 20 games, not 17; he could have been an all-rookie Big East [player]," Gonzalez said of the 17-15 Pirates last season. "He definitely would be a major impact guy. Who knows? We could believe in miracles and get Keon Lawrence, Michael Glover and Herb Pope [this season]."

It would be great for Seton Hall basketball. It would be great for Bobby Gonzalez. Who else does Gonzalez's gambling serve?

University of Nevada: In the Clear on Gambling Allegations?

2008-09-11T09:36:00.002-04:00

Yep. According to the University of Nevada at least:

The University of Nevada athletic program said Tuesday that the NCAA's 10-month investigation into the university's athletic program has found no lack of institutional control and no gambling-related issues.
"Obviously our department is elated with this decision," Nevada athletic director Cary Groth said. "We feel that we do an excellent job with compliance, and integrity is at the forefront of everything that we do and we were pleased with the findings." . . .

Findings, that is, that have not been released by the NCAA. Of course Groth's statement leaves the possibility that there WILL be findings in this investigation which go beyond gambling and the dreaded 'lack of institutional control'.

The NCAA launched an investigation into the program after women's soccer coach Terri Patraw filed a whistle-blower complaint alleging she was fired in retaliation for reporting rules violations within the Nevada athletic department. The most damning allegation claimed that men's golf coach Rich Merritt, who has since resigned, bet on sports. . . .

This is the most interesting angle on the story that remains. For her part, Patraw has not one, but three blogs up and running here, here, and here, where her side of the story has been extensively detailed. Her current reaction?

Patraw said Tuesday that "given all of the information concerning gambling and the lack of institutional control provided to the NCAA, this news is unbelievable."
Patraw said she supplied the NCAA with information she believes supports her claims, and that the university is not completely out of the clear.
"The NCAA Committee on Infractions has the final say and can hand down additional charges," Patraw said. "I look forward to what the NCAA Committee of Infractions has to say about this information."
When asked if she had contacted Patraw since being cleared of the two main allegations, Groth said: "Terri has nothing to do with this. This is an NCAA investigation."

NCAA talks the talk on Junior College Transfers

2008-09-10T11:25:00.000-04:00

Coaches attempting to strengthen teams whether for routine purposes, or to fill gaps caused by transfers, coaching changes, or academic disqualification have increasingly turned towards recruiting players from two-year colleges. This process is often not in the best interests of the student-athletes involved, and has placed several Universities in hot water, most recently the University of New Mexico. This is one of several issues upon which the NCAA is now talking the talk. Do not hold your breath on them walking the walk:

Division I Academic Cabinet members determined that transfers from two-year colleges, nontraditional coursework and academic support services at institutions are among their top priorities in the coming months.

The new cabinet met for the first time September 8-9 in Indianapolis.

One of the major issues the group will tackle will be the challenges presented by student-athletes who transfer from a two-year to a four-year institution.

Cabinet members will examine the recommendations of the Division I Transfer Issues Ad Hoc Group, and consider items like additional core-course requirements for 2-4 transfers, the idea of an academic year in residence and other recommendations. The cabinet emphasized the importance of data on which to base decisions, and went so far as to ask the Committee on Academic Performance to collect more data related to the academic profile of a successful 2-4 transfer.

The group would also like to learn more about nontraditional coursework on campuses, including best practices, and academic support programs available to student-athletes. The cabinet identified a few members to work with the NCAA research staff and representatives from academic partner organizations on developing a survey to find out more about academic support programs in Division I.

Cabinet members also said they would focus on student-athlete time demands and degree-selection issues.

Advocacy or Coverup?

2008-09-02T09:55:00.001-04:00

There is a very interesting article in the Des Moines Register on how Universities react to allegations of misconduct by their athletes. It deserves a full reading. Some excerpts:

Iowa City, Ia. - At a time when college football programs like those at the University of Iowa and Penn State are working to put public, off-the-field struggles behind them, others are working behind the scenes to make sure new allegations involving athletes and criminal behavior never make news.

My real successes are the ones you never hear about," said Alfredo Parrish, a Des Moines attorney who is representing former football player Abe Satterfield in the alleged sexual assault of a U of I female athlete last fall. "In my view, I've already lost once something gets into the newspaper."

Parrish and other defense lawyers in Iowa who routinely represent athletes say it's seldom possible to keep arrests out of the headlines, but sometimes they succeed. Advocates say athletes, coaches and university officials in college towns across the country have a vested interest in keeping such damaging incidents quiet. The problem, they say, is that athletes often benefit from their efforts to quietly resolve alleged crimes, and victims don't. . . .

The Iowa Board of Regents has initiated this summer a second inquiry into the alleged sexual assault of the U of I female athlete, after learning the victim's mother had accused athletic department officials of mishandling the case. The out-of-state investigators are expected to report to the regents by the Sept. 17-18 board meeting. . . .

Parrish said cases involving sexual assaults are particularly sensitive, and university attorneys and administrators also have a vested interest in trying to resolve issues discreetly. One reason is the university's own legal liability - a specter that has been raised in the alleged U of I assault because the athletes involved apparently had keys to an empty room on university property where the fellow athlete said she was raped, he said.
Last December, the University of Colorado at Boulder agreed to pay $2.85 million to settle a lawsuit brought by two former students, bringing closure to one of the past decade's more sensational cases of sexual abuse. A federal appeals court had ordered the university to stand trial on charges that it failed to do enough to prevent the rapes of the two students at an off-campus party by high-school recruits that was supervised by CU football players.

No Sunshine in Florida?

2008-08-20T17:08:00.002-04:00

Mike Bianchi at the Orlando Sentinel continues to be a thorn in the side of Florida State. Kudos:

Not much sunshine in Orlando this week because of Tropical Storm Fay.

Not much Sunshine in Tallahassee either due to another tropical storm on the horizon -- a top-secret list of alleged NCAA violations.

The Sunshine we're talking about is the State of Florida's Sunshine Law, which Florida State is once again trying to finagle around amid an academic fraud scandal that has turned into a national embarrassment for the Seminoles and their athletic department.

A quick legal briefing: Our state's Government-in-the-Sunshine law and corresponding Open Records Act provide almost unfettered and timely public access to documents, tapes, photographs and just about everything else generated by state-funded agencies. . . .

But, so far, Florida State has dragged its feet in releasing a key document that could provide some answers. That document -- the NCAA's Notice of Allegations (NOA) -- is a list of the alleged NCAA violations that occurred amid a cheating scandal involving university employees and more than 60 athletes.

FSU received the NOA two months ago and multiple media outlets, including the Sentinel, have requested its release. . . .

You would think the school would have learned its lesson about the Sunshine Law during the gambling investigation of starting quarterback Adrian McPherson a few years ago. That's when a school administrator actually admitted he didn't take notes during an internal investigation because he was intentionally trying to circumvent the Sunshine Law.

It was this sort of clandestine activity that fueled the perception FSU was trying to cover up the McPherson mess. Which is why President T.K. Wetherell claimed from that point on Florida State would be more open, less secretive. . . .

I have praised you in the past T.K. Why the letdown?

Series:
1. FSU Cheating Scandal
2. Florida State Scandal: Kudos to President Wetherell
3. STUDENT-Athlete Garrett Johnson Fires Both Barrels
4. No Sunshine in Florida?
5. FSU Scandal: Brenda Monk Breaks Her Silence

PROFANE is back from Vacation. . .

2008-08-20T16:56:00.001-04:00

A few reminders to commenters:

1. Keep it clean.
2. Keep it constructive.
3. Do not launch personal attacks.

If you do not like the rules of engagement, feel free to head to the numerous places on the internet where profanity and further discourteous behavour is tolerated or encouraged.

Hope everyone had a wonderful summer, and best wishes on the success of your teams. That is, unless, you are playing against Bates, SIU, or Wilkes! WOO HOO to the Bobcats, Salukis, and Colonels!

NCAA Selection: What the Committee got Wrong

2008-03-16T19:49:00.002-04:00

Congratulations to the NCAA selection committee for getting things mostly right this year, especially granting a deserving South Alabama an at-large bid. One could nit-pick endlessly and fruitlessly over seeding, but it is important to highlight the most significant things that they got wrong. These are part of an unhealthy trend.

Sins of Omission

The failure of the committee to grant Illinois State an at-large bid was the most significant sin of omission this year (a much weaker argument could be made for Dayton). Granted, Illinois State’s most significant wins, sweeps of in-conference opponents Creighton and Southern Illinois were not against NCAA tournament opponents. But it should be noted that 5 NCAA tournament teams, Butler, Drake, Indiana, St. Mary’s, and Western Kentucky visited the home floor of Southern Illinois this season. Only Butler and Indiana were victorious, and Butler’s victory came on a miracle buzzer-beating tre. Illinois State visited Southern Illinois on March 1 and came away with a 57-49 victory.

Illinois State also posted six more wins than two teams which made the field, Arizona and Oregon. Each of these teams finished poorly, with Oregon going 6-6 and Arizona 4-8 in the metric which the committee utilizes (digging a bit further back, Oregon lost 9 of its last 15). Illinois State finished 9-3, with two of those losses coming against #5 NCAA tournament seed Drake. The inclusion of Arizona and Oregon smacks of pandering to the BCS conferences, which have been progressively elbowing out the others when at-large bids are handed out.

Sins of Commission

The following represent the pairings for non-BCS teams in the seeding mid-range:

5 Notre Dame v. 12 George Mason
5 Michigan State v. 12 Temple
5 Drake v. 12 Western Kentucky
6 Oklahoma v. 11 Saint Joseph’s
7 Gonzaga v. 10 Davidson
7 Butler v. 10 South Alabama
7 Miami v. 10 Saint Mary’s
8 UNLV v. 9 Kent State
8 BYU v. 9 Texas A&M

Is this entirely incidental? I hope so. But it is certainly suspicious that a disproportionate number of these pairings automatically prevent non-BCS teams from advancing to the second round. This phenomenon is a continuation from last year, when the committee managed to place three non-BCS teams with a national ranking, Creighton, Memphis, and Nevada, all within the same initial pod of four teams.

The committee should, however, be thank for their work and it should be noted that no matter what they do, the upsets always seem to come. Let the madness begin!

March Madness: Projecting the Field

2008-03-16T12:46:00.009-04:00

Here is the field of 65 as I would choose it:

Auto-Bids:

American Patriot; Arkansas or Georgia SEC; Austin Peay OVC; Belmont Atlantic Sun; Boise State WAC; Butler Horizon; Cal State Fullerton Big West; Clemson or North Carolina ACC; Coppin State MEAC; Cornell Ivy; Davidson Southern; Drake MVC; George Mason CAA; Illinois or Wisconsin Big 10; Kansas or Texas Big 12; Kent State MAC; Maryland Baltimore County America East; Memphis CUSA; Mississippi Valley State SWAC; Mt. Saint Mary’s NEC; Northwestern State or Texas Arlington Southland; Oral Roberts Summit; Pittsburgh Big East; Portland State Big Sky; San Diego WCC; Siena Mid-American; Temple A10; UCLA Pac 10; UNLV MWC; Western Kentucky Sun Belt; Winthrop Big South.

At-Large Bids:

Marginal teams not included in the Bubble Breakdown below are discussed, as are the implications of today’s games.

(Arkansas SEC) – Arkansas will take this spot only if they lose today in the finals of the SEC tournament.
Baylor Big 12 – Baylor was a mediocre 9-7 in conference, and had only a 3-8 record versus the top 50, but picked up only one bad loss and had a solid 9-6 RD/NT record.
BYU MWC – Brigham Young only has two top 50 wins, but was the regular season champion of a top-ten RPI conference, and reached its conference finals.
Clemson or North Carolina ACC – One of these teams will take the ACC auto-bid, the other is a safe at-large candidate.
Connecticut Big East
Dayton A10
Duke ACC
Georgetown Big East
Gonzaga WCC
Illinois State MVC – The explicit rationale for including Air Force in 2006 was that it was ‘The #2 team in the #8 RPI conference.” This describes Illinois State this year, which compared to Air Force in 2006, also has two more top 50 wins, an RPI 17 spots better, and a non-conference Strength of Schedule 156 spots better. Illinois State also reached the finals of its tournament, unlike Air Force, which crashed out in the first round.
Indiana Big 10
Kansas or Texas Big 12 – One of these teams will take the ACC auto-bid, the other is a safe at-large candidate.
Kansas State Big 12
Kentucky Big 12 - There might be a question if the bubble were stronger this year, but the 12-5 conference record coupled with 9-3 down the stretch clearly gets Kentucky in.
Louisville Big East
Marquette Big East
Miami ACC – Miami was mediocre 8-8 in conference after an 11-0 start, including three bad losses, but did pick up quality wins against Duke and Clemson.
Michigan State Big 10
Mississippi State SEC – Mississippi State went only 2-7 versus the RPI top 50, and had one bad loss, but did top the SEC West.
Notre Dame Big East
Oklahoma Big 12
Purdue Big 10 – A bubble candidate? No given the 2nd placed finish in the Big 10 and a 5-4 record versus the top 50. But Purdue’s 4 bad losses will not likely be overlooked when it comes to seeding.
Saint Joseph’s A10 – Entering the A10 tournament, St. Joseph’s looked like a dead duck after losing 6 of their previous 9 games. The run to the finals, including a win against Xavier probable puts them in given the 5-6 record versus the top 50.
South Alabama Sun Belt – Granted, two of South Alabama’s top 50 wins were against in-conference Western Kentucky, and they picked up some bad losses. The crucial thing is that South Alabama showed they could defeat tough opposition out of conference when they took down Mississippi State. It should also be noted that South Alabama stretched Vanderbilt to two overtimes on the road.
Stanford Pac 10
St. Mary’s WCC
Tennessee SEC
Texas A&M Big 12 – Despite the mediocre 8-8 conference record, Texas A&M went 5-7 versus the RPI top 50, and picked up no bad losses.
USC Pac 10
Vanderbilt SEC
Washington State Pac 10
West Virginia Big East
(Wisconsin Big 10) Wisconsin will take this spot only if they lose in the finals of the Big 10 tournament
Xavier A10

Multiple Bid Conferences:

Big East: 7 or 8
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5 or 6
Pac 10: 4 or 5
Big 10: 4 or 5
ACC: 4
Atlantic 10: 4
West Coast: 3
Missouri Valley: 2
Mountain West: 2
Sun Belt: 2

Bubble Discussion

Kansas State Big 12 (19-11; RPI 49; SOS 33; 3-6 1-50; 5-7 last 12; 10-7 in conference; 1 bad loss; 5-9 RD/NT)
The fact that a resume like this puts you on the right side of the bubble this year illustrates the mediocrity of this years' bubble teams. It is also a wonderful illustration of why there is no need to expand the number of teams in the tournament field. The top 50 wins and the 10-7 conference record trump the awful 5-7 record down the stretch.

Dayton A10 (21-10; RPI 32; SOS 34; 4-4 1-50; 6-6 last 12; 9-9 in conference; 4 bad losses; 7-7 RD/NT)
Once again, these numbers are mediocre. But Dayton will probably benefit from the fact that they were missing key personnel during the mid-season slump which saw them fall from 14-1 to 17-9.

----------------------------- Cut Line #1 (Valid with losses by Arkansas and Wisconsin)
Villanova Big East (20-12; RPI 51; SOS 48; 4-7 1-50; 7-5 last 12; 10-10 in conference; 4 bad losses; 8-9 RD/NT)
Why does Villanova beat out the following teams? Principally because it was not AS hopeless as the other teams discussed here going down the stretch.

----------------------------- Cut Line #2 (Valid with a loss by Arkansas or Wisconsin)
Arizona State Pac 10 (19-12; RPI 83; SOS 77; 6-7 1-50; 5-7 last 12; 9-10 in conference; 2 bad losses; 6-8 RD/NT)
I hate seeing teams with negative records in conference and down the stretch, especially when they shopped around for the #296 non-conference SOS in the country. But Arizona State is more deserving than any of the teams which follow it. I have them in over Oregon barely (they split the head to head match ups this season) on the strength of quality wins and RD/NT record.

----------------------------- Cut Line #3 (Valid with wins by Arkansas and Wisconsin)
Oregon Pac 10 (18-13; RPI 58; SOS 37; 3-6 1-50; 6-6 last 12; 9-10 in conference; 2 bad losses; 6-10 RD/NT)
Syracuse Big East (19-13; RPI 55; SOS 9; 3-8 1-50; 6-6 last 12; 9-10 in conference; 2 bad losses; 5-8 RD/NT)
The RD/NT record and the more mediocre top 50 record keep Syracuse out.
Mississippi SEC (21-10; RPI 46; SOS 64; 5-3 1-50; 5-7 last 12; 7-10 in conference; 6 bad losses; 7-8 RD/NT)
Mississippi has a 5-3 record versus the top 50, but their bad losses and a conference record 3 games short of .500 should keep them out.
Florida State ACC (19-14; RPI 59; SOS 15; 3-6 1-50; 6-6 last 12; 8-10 in conference; 3 bad losses; 6-10 RD/NT)
Out as a result of their negative conference and RD/NT records, and the bad losses.
Arizona Pac 10 (18-14; RPI 38; SOS 2; 5-8 1-50; 4-8 last 12; 9-11 in conference; 2 bad losses; 8-8 RD/NT)
This one is painful. But a team that goes 4-8 in its last 12 does not deserve to be in.

Out

Charlotte A10 – 5 bad losses
Creighton MVC – 1-7 versus the top 50
Massachusetts A10 – 1-5 versus the top 50
New Mexico MWC – 1-4 versus the top 50
Ohio State Big 10 – 2-10 versus the top 50
Southern Illinois MVC – 6 bad losses, 5-10 RD/NT record
UAB CUSA – 0-2 versus the top 50
Virginia Commonwealth CAA – 0-2 versus the top 50
Virginia Tech ACC – 1-7 versus the top 50. To Seth Greenburg: I have immense respect for you. You are one of the good guys in College Basketball. But leaving out a team that failed to take all but one of its chances to defeat a top 50 team does not make one certifiable.

UPDATE 3:20 PM

Texas Arlington has defeated Northwestern State 82-79 in the Southland Conference finals to make the field.

Projected play in game:
Mississippi Valley State (SWAC) v. Mount Saint Mary's (NEC)

With North Carolina defeating Clemson 86-81 in the ACC finals, I can now project the top eight seeds:

#1 Seeds:
1. North Carolina ACC
2. Memphis CUSA
3. UCLA P10
4. Texas/Kansas winner B12

#2 Seeds:
1. Texas/Kansas loser B12
2. Tennessee SEC
3. Georgetown Big East
4. Wisconsin Big 10

UPDATE 4:35 PM

The play in game has been announced:
Coppin State (MEAC) v. Mount Saint Mary's (NEC)

UPDATE 5:36 PM

Kansas has defeated Texas 84-74 and has probably earned themselves a #1 seed.

Illinois has fallen to Wisconsin 61-48 and fails to steal a bid.

Georgia 66
Arkansas 57
final

Congratulations to Georgia on stealing a bid. Given that coach Dennis Felton has been under fire for doing things right, it could not have happened to a more deserving team.