FCS Bracket Announced

Click here for a printable bracket.

New Hampshire (7-4)
at
#1 Northern Iowa (11-0)

Delaware State (10-1)
at
Delaware (8-3)


Eastern Illinois (8-3)
at
#4 Southern Illinois (10-1)

Fordham (8-3)
at
Massachusetts (9-2)


Eastern Washington (8-3)
at
#2 McNeese State (11-0)

James Madison (8-3)
at
Appalachian State (9-2)


Wofford (8-3)
at
#3 Montana

Eastern Kentucky (9-2)
at
Richmond (9-2)


Kudos to the committee on their excellent work. There is nothing here that I take issue with. Overall I went 16/16 on teams, 8/8 on host schools, 4/4 on seeds, but only 4/8 on first round pairings. It appears that what the committee did was start with all of the close geographical pairings (App. St./James Madison, Del/Del St., Mass./Fordham, S. Ill/E. Ill) and then filled in teams from there, whereas strict adherence to the selection rules would have sent Eastern Illinois to Northern Iowa, with all other decisions following that.

Best of luck to every team in the championship. Unless you are playing Southern Illinois. GOOOOOO SALOOOOOOKIS!

FCS Playoffs: Bracket Projection

The official bracket will be announced tomorrow.

Eastern Illinois (8-3, At-Large)
at
#1 Northern Iowa (11-0, Gateway Auto-Bid)

Delaware St. (10-1, MEAC Auto-Bid)
at
Delaware (8-3, At-Large)


Eastern Kentucky (9-2, OVC Auto-Bid)
at
#4 Southern Illinois (10-1, At-Large)

Wofford (8-3, SOCON Auto-Bid)
at
Richmond (9-2, At-Large)


Eastern Washington (8-3, At-Large)
at
#2 McNeese State (11-0, Southland Auto-Bid)

James Madison (8-3, At-Large)
at
Appalachian State (9-2, At-Large)


New Hampshire (7-4, At-Large)
at
#3 Montana (11-0, Big Sky Auto-Bid)

Fordham (8-3, Patriot Auto-Bid)
at
Massachusetts (9-2, CAA Auto-Bid)

Bids by conference
CAA: 5
Big Sky: 2
Gateway: 2
OVC: 2
SOCON: 2
MEAC: 1
Patriot: 1
Southland: 1

For my seeding rationale see the previous post.

At-Large Rationale:
Six of the at-large teams, Southern Illinois, Appalachian State, Richmond, James Madison, Delaware, and Eastern Washington essentially chose themselves. The seventh and eight spots were difficult to fill. Here are the two I chose:

Eastern Illinois 8-3
Eastern Illinois played entirely Division I opposition, including an FBS team and still posted an eight win season, one above the threshold of seven which is generally necessary to receive serious at-large consideration. Were it not for the losses by Hofstra and Georgia Southern today, Eastern Illinois might not have been in the picture, but, based on the selection criteria, they are the seventh best team available for selection.

New Hampshire 7-4
Only one other team, Montana State last year, has received an FCS at-large bid with a 7-4 record. This year, the final spot comes down to three CAA teams each with 7-4 records, Hofstra, New Hampshire, and Villanova. Hofstra lost to both New Hampshire and Villanova, so this leaves us with a comparison of those two teams. The two teams did not play head to head, but each posted an identical 3-3 record versus common opponents. New Hampshire, however, posted a win against FBS Marshall, giving them one more quality win than Villanova, so they get the nod.


Teams also considered:

Youngstown State 7-4
Only 6 DI wins.

Georgia Southern 7-4
Only 6 DI wins.

Elon 7-4
Only 6 DI wins.

Grambling 8-2
The Bayou Classic comes calling.

The Citadel 7-4
Only 6 DI wins.

Sam Houston State 7-4
Only 6 DI wins.

Liberty 8-3
Only 5 DI wins.

Holy Cross 7-4
Seven DI wins, weak strength of schedule.

Dayton 10-1
If you come from a weak conference, and schedule patsies out of conference, you had better be perfect. Dayton was not.

Colgate 7-4
Seven DI wins, weak strength of schedule.

Albany 8-3
The NEC is still weak enough that it will probably have to wait for an auto-bid to send its champion to the playoffs.

Alabama A&M 8-3
The loss today to Prairie View A&M probably ended the possibility of SWAC participation in the playoffs.

FCS Afternoon/Evening: Countdown to the Playoffs

Consequential FCS results as they come in:

Maine 14 New Hampshire 39

With the win, New Hampshire moves to a 7-4 record with all seven of those wins coming against DI opponents. Should enough bubble teams slip up this afternoon they could sneak in to an at-large berth in the playoffs.

Massachusetts 27 Hofstra 5

With the win, Massachusetts finishes with a 9-2 record, and will likely face an ADs vote against Richmond to determine the CAA auto-bid. After starting 6-0, Hofstra finishes 7-4, but with seven DI wins they still have a chance at an at-large berth.

William & Mary 20 Richmond 31

With the win, Richmond finishes with a 9-2 record, and the CAA ADs (with the exception of those from Massachusetts and Richmond) will vote to determine who gets the CAA auto-bid.

Southern Illinois 45 Hampton 27

Hampton made it interesting early in the fourth quarter, but Southern Illinois were too much for them, and improve to 10-1 on the season and the possibility of a seed. GOOO SALOOOKIS!

Towson 13 James Madison 23

With the win, James Madison improves to 8-3 and in all likelihood has clinched an at-large berth in the playoffs.

Georgia Southern 34 Colorado State 42

Despite a valiant second half comeback, Georgia Southern has fallen to FBS Colorado State, and watched its playoff hopes slip away. At 7-4, with only 6 DI victories, Georgia Southern joins Youngstown State among top teams who will likely be left out in the cold.

Montana 41 Montana State 20

Montana pulled away in the second half, and, with the win in the rivalry game, improve to a perfect 11-0 for the regular season. They should have a seed awaiting them in the playoffs.

*Massachusetts takes the CAA auto-bid on a coin flip.*

The directors also noted that regardless of their decision, both Massachusetts and Richmond will be recognized identically as CAA co-champions; both teams are nationally ranked virtually assuring selection for the NCAA Championship and are likely first round host teams. In light of these factors, the directors concluded that the designation of the conference’s automatic qualifier merely will designate either team as the automatic qualifier or at-large team, but will not impact the evaluation of either champion by the NCAA Football Committee. Under these circumstances, the athletic directors concluded that the teams were indistinguishable and therefore the conference automatic qualifier should be determined by a coin-flip conducted by the Commissioner.

The coin-flip was conducted by CAA Commissioner Tom Yeager following the conclusion of both games. Massachusetts won the coin toss and will be the CAA’s automatic qualifier to the 2007 NCAA Football Championship.

With the final auto-bid decided, there are only a handful of games remaining left which have impact on the field.

Samford 17 Eastern Illinois 33

With the win, Eastern Illinois improve to 8-3, with all eight wins coming against DI opposition. Would the committee choose Eastern, from the OVC, over 7-4 teams like Hofstra and New Hampshire from the CAA? The latter two are objectively stronger teams, but the committee has been known to 'share the wealth' in the past.

Delaware 10 Villanova 16

Villanova came back to score 13 points in the fourth quarter to pull off a stunning upset of Delaware. Delaware is a safe bet for an at-large bid at 8-3, but their slim chances for a seed just evaporated. Villanova, at 7-4 with seven DI wins, must now enter the at-large conversation as well.

Chattanooga 17 Appalachian State 37

With this win Appalachian State improves to 9-2, and keeps its chances for a seed alive.

*Seeding Thoughts*

1. Northern Iowa leads Southern Utah 27-3 at the half, so they will be the #1 seed barring a miracle on the field or skulduggery during selection.

2. McNeese State have yet to kick off, but they should be the #2 seed with a win. I make them the #3 seed should they lose.

3. Montana has finished its season at 11-0, but played, by far, a weaker schedule than Northern Iowa and McNeese State. I make them the #3 seed with a McNeese State win, and a #2 seed with a McNeese State loss.

4. Only one of the five potential contenders for the final seed, Delaware, lost today. This leaves us to choose from Appalachian State (9-2), Massachusetts (9-2), Richmond (9-2), and Southern Illinois (10-1). Appalachian State and Southern Illinois both have wins against FBS opposition, while Massachusetts and Richmond played in a stronger conference, the CAA. One could argue endlessly, and fruitlessly, over who had the toughest schedule and the best body of wins. How to choose then? In a season where the seasons of most seeds will likely be defined by perfection, who amongst these other teams came closest to perfection? Or, put another way, which losses put the greatest blemish on the records of these four teams?

[Rankings of FCS teams reflect the latest edition of the GPI]
Appalachian State lost to #12 Wofford and #14 Georgia Southern.
Massachusetts lost to FBS Boston College, and #52 Rhode Island.
Richmond lost to FBS Vanderbilt and #51 Towson.
Southern Illinois lost to #1 Northern Iowa, and are, therefore, my #4 seed.

Weber State 16 Eastern Washington 38

With the win, Eastern Washington improves to 8-3 and probably locks up an at-large bid to the playoffs.

Southern Utah 10 Northern Iowa 48

Northern Iowa wraps up a 11-o regular season and, in all likelihood, the #1 overall seed with this win over 0-11 Southern Utah.

With McNeese State ahead 27-7 in the third quarter, it is time to wrap up this thread and announce my bracket projection.

Drug Testing Inconsistencies

There is a very interesting article in today's Salt Lake Tribune on testing for performance enhancing drugs at top NCAA schools. It is worth reading at length. Here are a few excerpts:

When an athlete at the University of Idaho failed a drug test nearly three years ago and became one of the few collegians caught cheating with performance-enhancing drugs, something remarkable happened:
Almost nothing.
He was not publicly identified or ruled ineligible. He was not banned from competition. He was not even suspended.
Instead, he faced only continued periodic testing over the next year, according to school records, and was required to enroll in a university counseling program. The school "encouraged" him to notify his parents.
Outrageous?
Try, unsurprising. . . .

The number of athletes subjected to drug tests, the banned substances for which they are tested, the quality of the testing and the consequences of failed tests vary significantly depending on the sports athletes play, as well as the schools, conferences and states in which they play them, the investigation revealed. . . .

Meanwhile, some of the nation's largest and most prominent programs, such as Cal, Kentucky and West Virginia, do not systematically test for performance enhancers, relying on the random tests administered by the NCAA itself. But only about 4 percent of athletes can ever expect such a test.
It's possible - perhaps even likely - that most college athletes will go their entire careers without being tested for steroids and other performance-enhancing drugs. . . .

Few major colleges and universities systematically test their athletes for performance-enhancing steroids, for example, generally leaving that to the NCAA's drug-testing program, and only 16 of the 62 schools that provided their drug-testing policies require an athlete to be suspended from competition the first time he or she tests positive for one of the dozens of substances banned by the NCAA. The rest usually require some combination of counseling and continued testing, including the possibility of suspension or expulsion for subsequent failed tests. Some schools, such as South Florida and Tennessee, automatically suspend athletes who test positive for performance-enhancing drugs, but allow more lenient punishments for those who test positive for street drugs. . . .

Two schools even "trade out" university products in exchange for testing services. Documents show Oklahoma and UNLV traded thousands of dollars worth of season tickets to football and basketball games for drug-testing services.
Such practices are dangerously vulnerable to conflicts of interest, anti-doping experts agree.
"The three words I use all the time . . . are independence, transparency and accountability," said Wadler, the New York expert. "For a system to work, you can't have inherent conflicts of interest." . . .

To create the plausible threat of getting caught, the programs at Iowa and Kansas mix in steroid tests among the athletes they randomly select to test for street drugs. Athletes at Iowa who test positive for steroids are suspended from competition until they can supply a negative test, a punishment levied by several other schools as well. "At any point, an athlete isn't going to know whether we're testing for steroids or not," said Laura Reed, who administers the drug-testing program at Iowa. "They know it's a possibility."
That kind of uncertainty - especially in regard to the timing of drug tests - is viewed by experts as crucial in creating an effective drug-testing program. . . .

More on the State Penn Mayhem

The criminal complaint in the case has been released, and lawyers for the accused are whining:

STATE COLLEGE — The defense attorneys representing Penn State football players Chris Baker and Navorro Bowman took issue Thursday not only with the allegations laid out against their clients in criminal complaints but with the documents themselves. . . .

“In my 17 years as an attorney, I have never seen an affidavit of probable cause this lengthy,” said attorney Karen Muir, who represents Baker and backup defensive back Knowledge Timmons. Timmons is charged with disorderly conduct and criminal trespass stemming from his actions in the aftermath of the HUB incident.

The strangeness doesn’t end there, according to the attorneys.

Sophomore defensive tackle Phillip Taylor is listed by police as among the “participants” in the incident at 1:46 a.m. Oct. 7. But Taylor, despite being implicated by the statements of a number of players as detailed in the criminal complaint, has not been charged.

Sloane said that is because the witnesses against Taylor are among those charged, so they likely would assert their rights under the Fifth Amendment. . . .

“I’m very surprised there were only three people charged,” Muir said.

Attorney Stacy Parks Miller, who represents Bowman, said the complaint was meant to divide the football players and get them to turn on one another to police.

[Assistant District Attorney] Sloane said naming those players will show authorities are serious about holding everyone involved accountable. By making this much detail public, “the investigation may be accelerated,” he said.

Muir and Parks Miller condemned the tactic.

“The odd narrative in the document, which is at least five times longer than any homicide complaint I have ever seen in all the years prosecuting and doing defense work, was clearly written to pit the team members against each other and to influence the general public and potential jurors,” Parks Miller said. “Worse yet, the complaint was written to cast a shadow on people who exercised their Fifth Amendment rights by mentioning each person who did so. Considering that people who did cooperate still ended up charged, it is no wonder people were not lining up to sit down with the police.”

Thanks. I will remember that I can always find a defense attorney who will argue that cooperation should result in no charges in the case of future lawbreaking. Methinks that the reason that the attorneys are so worked up is that parts of the complaint are so damning. Here are a few excerpts:

[An unredacted version of the complaint available earlier in the day has been removed from press websites. In the following, the alleged victim, and the witnesses will not be named.]

Victim stated he was kicked and punched by numerous people. Affiant notice his green shirt was covered in blood and that he had to continually use it to contain his bleeding. Victim had swelling to his entire face, lips, and nose. Blood was coming from his nose, which he continually wiped with his shirt. Victim’s nose appeared that it had been fractured due to the blood and the distorted angle which it was in. Affiant also observed that Victim’s lip was split and blood was oozing from it. Affiant requested an ambulance to the location for an evaluation. . . .

Victim recalled that he was approached and attack by this group of approximately 15 people, although there were four primary aggressors, all beating, punching, stomping, and kicking him. The video surveillance cameras picked up the procession of approximately 15 large black males marching right over to where Victim went to sit by himself when he felt trouble may start. . .

Not only is there video evidence, but also damning testimony from several witnesses:

Witness later supplied Affiant with a written statement he recorded onto his text phone immediately after the event so he would remember everything for the police. In this text message he desribes the incident in vivid detail. . .

“On Saturday October 6pm I was at my alma mater, Penn State attending a social function. At approximately 145 am I was standing inside the room where this gathering was located. As the event was ending the majority of the people were walking towards the stage. As I started to walk towards the stage, I notice out of the left hand side of my vision what appeared to be a young man who was talking and walking with another gentleman. From the tone of the conversation it appeared that they were angry about something. As everyone was walking in the opposite direction I decided to walk behind them as the oldest person in the room I thought I would try and prevent a situation if it was to be one. As they walked down the hallway they made a turn and I heard the first one say there he is right there. As I looked up I saw Victim sitting all alone my heart dropped as I heard the other person say that’s the nigga from last time and as I heard those words there was an all out stampede. The only thing I can think to describe it was me placing a steak in the middle of the floor and 15to20 roetweilers going after that one piece of steak. Victim was being kicked, stomped, punched in the face repeatedly and as I was taking physical punishment to get to his rescue there were just two many guys abusing him. By the time I was able to get to him he was bleeding and still absorbing abuse and all I could do was shield him with my body and as I absorbed all the abuse all I could think of was saving my friend. It was as if my parenting skills kicked in and someone was physically assaulting my child. This appeared to go on for about 4 to 5 minutes when I heard someone say here they come and you better get out of here. Then I was attempting to get Victim to safety when out of no where came a fist to his jaw and he was stretched out for about 30 seconds. At this point I helped him up and others had arrived from one side and the police was there from my other side. It all seemed to happen fast and furiously and it was an all out assault. I then begin explaining to the others that had arrived and the police what I had witnessed. It took everything for me to fight back the tears as I explained the EXTREME physical assault that I had witnessed from all these individuals verses one person.”

Another witness reported some professional wrestling style assaults:

Witness reported that he observed approximately four (4) black males punching, striking and kicking another black male. Witness stated that the victim crawled underneath of a table to help protect him from the blows, but two of the males picked up the table and threw it through the air. Witness stated that this sound caused person to being running away from the fight.Witness stated that after they threw the table, the actors continued striking and kicking the victim male. Witness stated that at one point one of the actors, climb onto a chair, jumped off and drove his elbow into the face of the victim. He then witnessed one of the actors pick up a table and throw it forcefully onto the victim as he lay on the ground.

When are you going to clean house Joe Pa?

Random Misbehaviour (and Worse), 11-15

I. Dawg Bites

ATHENS, Ga. (AP) -- Junior guard Billy Humphrey has been indefinitely suspended from the Georgia basketball team following his arrest for possession of a weapon on school property. . . .

The Bulldogs previously dismissed senior forward Takais Brown for violation of team policies. Guard Mike Mercer and forward Albert Jackson, both sophomores, are serving suspensions for violation of academic policies. . . .

At this rate Georgia will be suiting up its cheerleading squad in March.

II. Say it, don't spray it

MORGANTOWN, W.Va. -- West Virginia quarterback Pat White accused Louisville linebacker Preston Smith of spitting in his face, even after the coaches for both teams downplayed the incident. . . .

West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez said Louisville coach Steve Kragthorpe had phoned him about the matter.

"Steve talked to the player in question and the player assured him that they were jawing at each other but he didn't intentionally spit on him. I appreciate him calling me and talking about it," Rodriguez said on the weekly Big East coaches' conference call Monday. . . .

White didn't back down from his contention.

"He spit on me," White said Tuesday night. "I'm sure he doesn't want to admit that. It's a dirty thing to do. It's disrespectful."

III. Reggie Bush: Taking no Prisoners

Halfway through his second season in the NFL, Reggie Bush already ranks among the most recognizable and profitable faces in the league.

For that he owes thanks to Mike Ornstein, the sports marketing agent who guided him to millions of dollars in endorsement contracts for products ranging from sneakers to submarine sandwiches.

Ornstein is also the man Bush fired last week.

"Most athletes hope for a shoe deal and a little something beyond that, but Bush has got it all," one advertising executive said. "I don't know why he would get rid of his agent."

The split suggests something more than a business difference, with numerous sources pointing to a disagreement among Bush's advisors over how to handle allegations that he and his family took cash and gifts while he was still playing at USC.

The principles are not doing much talking but, based on interviews and information gathered over several months, it seems clear that Bush's advisors were split over whether to settle out of court with two would-be San Diego sports marketers who made the allegations. . . .

Sources say that Ornstein, worried about public relations fallout, argued for bringing the matter to a quiet end.

IV. Austin Scott Pleads Not Guilty

Suspended Penn State running back Austin Scott has waived today's scheduled arraignment and pleaded not guilty to felony charges of rape and sexual assault and a simple-assault charge and two counts of indecent assault, all misdemeanors.

A redshirt senior from Allentown, Scott's next court appearance is a pre-trial conference set for Jan. 17. Jury selection is scheduled for Feb. 4 before a formal trial begins.

Scott's waiver, which included his plea, was faxed yesterday to the Centre County Courthouse in Bellefonte, Pa.

"We expected a waiver since 90 percent normally waive the arraignment," Centre County assistant court administrator Barb Gallo said.

Scott, 22, was charged Oct. 12 in connection with the Oct. 5 encounter he had with a female student at his campus apartment. At an Oct. 17 preliminary hearing, Scott was bound over for trial.

The court issued a gag order to both sides Oct. 22 at the request of Centre County Assistant District Attorney Lance Marshall, who had accused lead defense counsel John Karoly of leaking information about the accuser's past to the media.

V. And more from State Penn. . .

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. (AP) -- Penn State defensive tackle Chris Baker and backup linebacker Navorro Bowman were charged with assault Thursday over a campus fight in which authorities said a man was bloodied after being kicked and punched.

Baker, 20, of Windsor, Conn., and Bowman, 19, of District Heights, Md., were arraigned Thursday on charges including felony aggravated assault and two misdemeanors, simple assault and disorderly conduct. Each was also charged with summary harassment and stalking. . . .

In early October, several players had been demoted and/or lost playing time based upon our initial understanding of the facts regarding the incident," according to a statement Thursday from the football team. "Based upon today's information, Chris Baker, Navorro Bowman and Knowledge Timmons will not travel with the team to East Lansing." . . .

Police said they were called to the Hetzel Union Building early Oct. 7 to break up a fight during a dance party attended by at least a dozen players.

The lengthy 15-page complaint paints a chaotic scene, in which authorities said the victim, Varney Capehart, suffered a bloody nose and lip and other injuries to his face after being kicked, stomped and punched "by numerous people," authorities said. Capehart was treated at the scene by paramedics. . . .

A third player, cornerback Knowledge Timmons, will be issued a summons by mail for charges of disorderly conduct and defiant trespass, Centre County Assistant District Attorney Steve Sloane said. Timmons' charges were connected to an incident at the HUB after the fight, Sloane said. . . .

Baker, a sophomore, has played in every game this season, starting in seven of them and compiling 37 tackles and 41/2 sacks. He has emerged as solid contributor on Penn State's young defensive line.

He is also awaiting trial on charges for a separate fight at an off-campus apartment in April.

Mike at Black Shoes Diaries, a Penn State fanblog comments:

I hate this team. I still love Penn State football, but I hate this group of players. They are nothing more than a bunch of street thugs. There is nothing inspiring about them on the field, and nothing to like about them off the field.

I don't ever want to see Chris Baker in Blue and White again. He's a troublemaker. We have five other defensive tackles with NFL caliber talent. We don't need him. He needs Penn State, but he can't seem to keep that in mind.

Knowledge Timmons needs to go as well. He was rumored to be a major player in the April apartment fight with Baker but he never faced charges. He wasn't so fortunate this time, and now the rumors from April carry a little more weight. Kick them both off the team. Now.

AMEN. Get to it Joe Pa!


VI. Montana football gets in on the act

MISSOULA, Mont. -- Three University of Montana football players appeared in District Court Monday on felony charges stemming from a drug-related home invasion that occurred last week near campus.

Running back Greg Coleman, 22, defensive end Mike Shelton, 21, and running back Jeramy Pate, 19, appeared before District Judge John Larson over a video feed from jail. The hearing was unusual because Monday was Veteran's Day, a government holiday, and the courthouse was closed except for the single hearing.

Court records said six men broke into a house early on Nov. 5 with the intent of stealing marijuana, pistol-whipped a man and used a stun gun on him and tied up a woman with duct tape.

The three Grizzly players have been suspended from the team. They and two others have been arrested on felony charges of robbery, burglary and aggravated kidnapping. . . .

Their details have also disappeared from MontanaGrizzlies.com.

Police arrested the men Sunday, intercepting Coleman and Shelton at the Adams Center as the football team arrived home following Saturday's game at Idaho State. . . .

The arrests are the latest trouble for members of the UM football team.

In June, cornerback Jimmy Wilson surrendered to California authorities investigating the death of his aunt's 29-year-old boyfriend. Wilson has pleaded not guilty to murder in the case.

Later that same month, teammate Qwenton Freeman, who California authorities suspect witnessed the shooting, was arrested over allegations that he threw a beer bottle at a man outside a bar. He has been acquitted on the charge, but still has two cases pending -- one for slapping a 24-year-old woman outside a bar and another for choking his girlfriend and hitting her in the head. He has denied the allegations.

In September, cornerback Timothy L. Parks was arrested on charges that he pointed a gun at a woman's head and slapped her while trying to collect a debt.

Certainly not what head coach Bobby Hauck was looking for heading into the rivalry game with Montana State on Saturday, and a likely seed in the FCS playoffs.

The FCS Playoff Picture

Here is a breakdown of the contenders for seeds and spots in the FCS playoffs. I will post a projected field with pairings at the culmination of the McNeese State-Central Arkansas game on Saturday night. The selection show will air live on Sunday on ESPN


Contending for Seeds

Northern Iowa 10-0 Gateway Auto-Bid

Northern Iowa has already clinched the Gateway auto-bid, with squeakers of victories over Southern Illinois and Youngstown State being the key. They could post a perfect regular season should they dispatch Southern Utah who, at 0-10, have been everyone's whipping boy this year. Given the victory over FBS Iowa State in OOC play, and the near unanimous #1 ranking in both polls and computer rankings, Northern Iowa should take the #1 overall seed with a win on Saturday.


McNeese State 10-0

Although they have posted a perfect season to date, McNeese State must take care of business against Central Arkansas to wrap up the Southland conference auto-bid. Given the win over FBS Louisiana-Lafayette, and solid poll and computer rankings, McNeese State should take the #2 overall seed with a win on Saturday.


Montana 10-0 Big Sky Auto-Bid

Montana has clinched the Big Sky auto-bid, and will perhaps take one of the seeds should they complete a perfect regular season against Montana State on Saturday. Perhaps is the operative word however, considering that its three OOC opponents did not include FBS opposition, but did include DII Fort Lewis, which has posted a 1-9 record, and FCS whipping boy Southern Utah at 0-10. The question is whether Montana's gaudy record and long and proud tradition will overcome a very weak schedule.


Other Contenders for Seeds

There are five teams beyond these who can make a case for a seed. The question is whether the committee will go for whoever emerges with the CAA auto-bid (for which there are still four teams contending), probably with a 9-2 record, or for one of two very strong teams who stumbled in-conference, Southern Illinois (currently 9-1) and Appalachian State (currently 8-2). I will deal with the latter two first.


Appalachian State 8-2

Appalachian State made waves earlier in the season with its stunning upset of Michigan in the Big House. Its conference season did not go entirely smoothly, with 'quality losses' to SOCON champion Wofford and at-large contender Georgia Southern. Appalachian State is a lock for an at-large bid, but will probably be on the outside looking in when the seeds are handed out.

Southern Illinois 9-1

[Readers should note that the author is a Salukis fan, but he will attempt to maintain sober analysis!]

The only thing which separates Southern Illinois from a perfect season to date is a seven yard line tackle on a rugby play with zero seconds on the clock which did not, quite, result in an unlikely victory over Northern Iowa. Given that, and the win over FBS Northern Illinois, the committee may be tempted to give Southern Illinois a seed over a 9-2 CAA champion should they complete their season with a victory at Hampton on Saturday. Whatever happens, an at-large berth looks like a formality.


Richmond 8-2

Richmond needs a win against William and Mary and a Massachusetts loss, or a win and an ADs vote (no joke!) to take the CAA auto-bid. Its only losses came against FBS Vanderbilt, and, bafflingly, to 3-7 Towson. App State and Southern Illinois are objectively stronger, but would that be enough to overcome the kudos of winning the auto-bid from the toughest FCS conference? In any scenario, however, a lock for an at-large bid.


Massachusetts 8-2

Massachusetts needs a win against a tough Hofstra team and a Richmond loss, or a win and an ADs vote (no joke!) to take the CAA auto-bid. Like Richmond, it has a loss against an FBS school, ranked Boston College, and a baffling loss, in this case to 2-8 Rhode Island. As with Richmond, Massachusetts is not, objectively, as strong as Southern Illinois and App State, and is a lock for an at-large bid.


Delaware 8-2

Delaware needs a win against Villanova, and losses by Richmond, Massachusetts, and James Madison to take the CAA auto-bid. Should this scenario occur, I would predict Delaware as a seed over Southern Illinois and App State, considering that it, as well, has an FBS scalp, Navy, and its two losses came by 5 points at tough New Hampshire, and in overtime on Saturday versus Richmond. Should that not play out, Delaware is a lock for an at-large bid


Other Auto-Bids

Wofford 8-3 SOCON Auto-Bid

Wofford's crucial game came on September 22, when they upset Appalachian State. Despite two later conference losses, most recently against Georgia Southern, this means that they take the tiebreaker even should App State share the conference title with a win over Chattanooga on Saturday.


Eastern Kentucky 8-2 OVC Auto-Bid

Given their victory over Eastern Illinois on October 6, Eastern Kentucky will take the OVC auto-bid even should they fall to Tennessee Tech on Saturday. SOS is not sufficient to be in the running for a seed.


Delaware State 9-1 MEAC Auto-Bid

Delaware State clinched the MEAC on Saturday with their win over Norfolk State. SOS is not sufficient to be in the running for a seed.


Fordham 8-2 Patriot Auto-Bid

Fordham clinched the Patriot League on Saturday with their win over Holy Cross, ending years of football futility. SOS is not sufficient to be in the running for a seed.


Still in the Running for an Auto-Bid

Central Arkansas 6-4

Although out of the running for an at-large bid, Central Arkansas could steal an auto-bid with a win against McNeese State on Saturday. This would put McNeese into the at-large pool, with implications for 'bubble' teams.

*CORRECTION* Thursday 9:48 AM
Central Arkansas is in their first season in the Southland Conference, and are not eligible for postseason play this year, so McNeese State takes the auto-bid even with a loss on Saturday.


On the Bubble

There are five schools here for only three or four slots, but each can make an excellent case for inclusion with a win in the final week.


James Madison 7-3

James Madison could still take the CAA auto-bid with a win against Towson on Saturday, and losses by Richmond and Massachusetts. A far more likely scenario is that they will take an at-large bid after defeating a 3-7 team and finishing 8-3. A loss will leave them sweating.


Georgia Southern 7-3

A win against FBS Colorado State on Saturday would certainly garner Georgia Southern an at-large bid. A loss will leave them sweating.


Hofstra 7-3

A win against Massachusetts on Saturday, along with a win by James Madison, could mean 5 CAA teams in the playoffs.


Eastern Washington 7-3

A win against Weber State on Saturday will probably mean that Eastern Washington joins Montana as the second Big Sky team in the playoffs.


Grambling 8-2

Both of SWAC champion Grambling's losses came against FBS opponents, so a win against a tough Southern University team should propel them into the playoffs.


On the Outside Looking In

Youngstown State 7-4

Youngstown State is the best four loss team in the FCS, but they need losses by at least three of the six following teams on Saturday if they are to have a chance at a bid: Central Arkansas, James Madison, Georgia Southern, Hofstra, Eastern Washington, Grambling.


Liberty 7-3

The Big South sent a 9-2 Coastal Carolina team to the playoffs last year, but even with a win against Gardner-Webb on Saturday, their resume will not be enough.


Dayton 10-1

The selection committee left a 10-0 San Diego team with better computer numbers out of the playoffs last year, so do not expect any favors to be given to the Pioneer League this year.