Monday, November 10, 2008
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #3
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #4
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2008 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2008: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Quarterfinals Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Semifinals Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results, Final Prediction, and FBS comment
This will be a weekly feature until selection day. Comments, corrections, and (constructive) criticism are most welcome.
Locks (3): James Madison; Montana; Weber State
In the Hunt (27): Appalachian State; Cal Poly; Colgate; Eastern Kentucky; Elon; Furman; Holy Cross; Lafayette; Liberty; Maine; McNeese State; New Hampshire; Nicholls State; Northern Iowa; Northwestern State; Richmond; Sam Houston State; South Carolina State; South Dakota State; Southern Illinois; Stephen F. Austin; Tennessee-Martin; Tennessee State; Texas State; Villanova; William & Mary; Wofford
Living on a Prayer (8): Albany; Bethune-Cookman; Dayton; Jacksonville State; Massachusetts; Montana State; Morgan State; Prairie View A&M
Off the Board: Lehigh; Northern Arizona; Sacred Heart; Western Illinois
Auto Bid Conferences
Big Sky Conference
A surprise at the top.
Weber State (9-2; 6-0)
Their 59-27 win over Idaho State has clinched the Big Sky auto-bid for the Wildcats. With a win against Montana under their belt, finishing the season with a win against Eastern Washington on November 22 and a 10-2 record could yield a top four seed.
Status: Lock
Montana (9-1; 4-1)
The Grizzlies went into the weekend with a slim chance at the Big Sky auto-bid. That evaporated with Weber State’s win. That said, Montana could afford to drop its last two games, against Idaho State and Montana State, and still receive an at-large bid. Winning out and finishing at 11-1 would almost certainly mean a top four seed.
Status: Lock
Montana State (6-4; 4-2)
Montana State could still reach an 8-4 record by winning out, and given the fact that New Hampshire made the playoffs last year with a 7-4 record, it is too early to completely rule out the Bobcats’ chances of a playoff spot.
Status: Living on a Prayer
Northern Arizona (6-3; 4-3)
Three weeks ago, the Lumberjacks were 6-1 and dreaming of a Big Sky title. With the loss to Montana State on Saturday, their at-large hopes have evaporated.
Status: Off the Board
Colonial Athletic Association
Once again this year, the CAA is both the biggest and baddest conference, with seven of its twelve teams still alive in the playoff hunt.
James Madison (8-1; 6-0)
The Dukes are the consensus #1 FCS team in the country, with their only loss coming against FBS Duke. After an idle week, they face William & Mary on Saturday. A win clinches the CAA title, while a loss would leave things as clear as mud. It does, however, come down to this. Should they win out they will be the #1 seed.
Status: Lock
Villanova (7-2; 5-1)
The win over New Hampshire on Saturday improved the Wildcats’ slim chances for the CAA auto-bid. They should not have to worry about that, as a win in one of their last two games, against cellar-dwellers Delaware and Towson, should lock up an at-large bid.
Status: In the Hunt
William & Mary (7-2; 5-1)
Should the Tribe take down James Madison on Saturday, we may very well see a three-way tie at the top which would leave everyone scrambling for tie-breaker procedures. Although a seed would be a long shot, all they need for a safe at-large bid would be a win in one of their final two games, against the Dukes and Richmond.
Status: In the Hunt
New Hampshire (7-2; 4-2)
The Wildcats saw their CAA title hopes all but evaporate, and their seed hopes disappear with the loss to Villanova on Saturday. That said the FBS scalp of Navy means that New Hampshire should take an at-large bid should they win one of their last two games. Both games will be tough; they host Massachusetts this weekend, and close out their season by visiting Maine.
Status: In the Hunt
Richmond (7-3; 4-2)
The Spiders have a good chance for an at-large bid to the playoffs, but cannot be comfortable unless they win their final two games, against Delaware and William & Mary, thus finishing with a 9-3 record.
Status: In the Hunt
Maine (7-3; 4-2)
By squeaking out a 21-20 win at Massachusetts on Saturday, the Black Bears have given themselves a chance for an at-large bid. Taking care of business at Rhode Island on Saturday would set up a final Saturday showdown with New Hampshire which could very well decide their fate.
Status: In the Hunt
Massachusetts (6-4; 3-3)
The loss to Maine on Saturday leaves the Minutemen on the brink, but as winning out would yield an 8-4 record it is still too early, as is the case with Montana State, to take them off the board.
Status: Living on a Prayer
Key games this week:
Massachusetts at New Hampshire
New Hampshire moves into the lock category with a win, while Massachusetts needs an improbable road victory to stay alive.
William & Mary at James Madison
James Madison wraps the CAA up with a win, while William & Mary stays alive in the championship hunt with a win, and moves into lock status.
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
South Carolina State (8-2; 6-0)
Despite their win against Howard, and the losses by Hampton and Morgan State, the Bulldogs have not quite finished their business. A win in either of their last two games would, however, yield them the MEAC auto-bid.
Status: In the Hunt
Morgan State (6-4; 4-2)
The loss at Norfolk State has all but finished the playoff hopes of the Bears. Should they defeat South Carolina State this weekend, follow that up by taking care of Hampton and South Carolina loses in the final game of the season, they will, improbably take the MEAC auto-bid.
Status: Living on a Prayer
Bethune-Cookman (7-2; 4-2)
While their hopes for the MEAC auto-bid are gone, winning out would leave the Wildcats at 9-2, and in the conversation for an auto-bid. Given the weakness of the MEAC, they would, however, likely lose out to an 8-3 or 8-4 team from a stronger conference.
Status: Living on a Prayer
Key game this week:
South Carolina State at Morgan State
A win for South Carolina State wraps up the auto-bid, and ends the hopes of Morgan State.
Missouri Valley
The new-look MVFC has become a black and blue conference with the addition of both South and North Dakota State. Three teams are still alive in the conference title race, and two teams have at-large hopes.
Northern Iowa (8-2; 6-1)
The Panthers took care of business this week by blanking Missouri State 42-0, but still must hope for a slip-up by Southern Illinois to clinch the auto-bid. However SIU performs, winning out would but them into the seeding conversation. A win in one of their final two games makes them a lock.
Status: In the Hunt
Southern Illinois (7-2; 5-1)
The Salukis remain the only team left in the MVFC with their fate entirely in their own hands, after escaping with a 24-14 victory over Western Illinois on Saturday in a game where the final score does no justice to its competitiveness. South Dakota State visits on Saturday in a game where a win would not only put SIU into lock status, but make them the prohibitive favorite to take the auto-bid. Winning out puts them in to the seeding conversation.
Status: In the Hunt
South Dakota State (6-4; 5-1)
The Jackrabbits kept their hopes of a playoff berth via the MVFC auto-bid alive on Saturday by trouncing Illinois State. To stay alive, they must win out, including a win at SIU at Saturday, and hope for a loss by Northern Iowa in one of the Panthers final two games. Winning out without a Northern Iowa loss would leave the Bunnies living on a prayer.
Status: In the Hunt
Western Illinois (5-4; 3-3)
The Leathernecks playoff chances evaporated on Saturday with Korey Lindsey’s 48-yard interception return for a touchdown with 1:36 left. (WOO HOO SALUKIS!)
Status: Off the Board
Key game this week:
South Dakota State at Southern Illinois
A loss by South Dakota State here ends their playoff hopes, while a win by SIU should clinch an at-large bid, and paves the way for the MVFC auto-bid.
Ohio Valley Conference
The race for the conference title is still in question, but the computer numbers may not be strong enough this year for serious at-large contention.
Tennessee State (8-2; 5-1)
The win over Eastern Illinois on Saturday puts the Tigers in pole position for the OVC auto-bid, as they have defeated their two top rivals. They face a tough Jacksonville State team on Saturday. Winning out yields them the auto-bid, while taking one out of the last two would leave them in the conversation for an at-large.
Status: In the Hunt
Tennessee-Martin (7-3; 5-1)
The Skyhawks have a straightforward path to the OVC championship. They must defeat Southeast Missouri State on the road this weekend, follow that up with a win against Eastern Kentucky in the final game of the season, and hope that Tennessee State slips up. Absent that, an at-large bid seems unlikely given that two of their wins came against non-DI opponents.
Status: In the Hunt
Eastern Kentucky (6-3; 5-1)
The Colonels were idle on Saturday, but head into a game against Murray state on a five-game winning streak. Should they win on Saturday, and defeat TN-M on the road in the following week, they would take the auto-bid if Tennessee State lost one of their final two.Winning out without the OVC title would yield a long shot chance at an auto-bid.
Status: In the Hunt
Jacksonville State (7-3; 5-2)
While there are tie-breaking scenarios that make an OVC auto-bid possible for the Gamecocks, their chances for a playoff spot are all but cooked. Any scenario requires, however, that they close out their season on Saturday with a win against Tennessee State.
Status: Living on a Prayer
Key game this week:
Tennessee State at Jacksonville State
A Tennessee State win keeps them on the path to the playoffs, while Jacksonville State’s chances evaporate with a loss.
Patriot League
As with the OVC, the computer numbers may not be strong enough for an at-large bid, but the conference title is still wide open.
Colgate (8-2; 4-0)
The Raiders barely survived their visit to Lehigh on Saturday, winning 34-33, and, consequently, the Patriot League picture is less complicated than it was a week ago. All Colgate must do now is close out their season in two weeks time by taking down Holy Cross. A loss would leave them under consideration for an at-large bid, but in all likelihood left out.
Status: In the Hunt
Holy Cross (6-3; 4-0)
While the Crusaders close out their season with two tough road games, their fate is entirely in their hands. They take the Patriot League auto-bid with by winning out against Lafayette and Colgate.
Status: In the Hunt
Lafayette (7-2; 3-1)
The Leopards auto-bid chances evaporated with the win by Colgate on Saturday, but winning out would leave Lafayette at 9-2, and in serious contention for an at-large bid.
Status: In the Hunt
Lehigh (3-6; 2-2)
Lehigh’s auto-bid chances ended with their tragic loss to Colgate on Saturday, in a game which they led by 12 points in the third quarter.
Status: Off the Board
Key game this week:
Holy Cross at Lafayette
Holy Cross stays in contention for the auto-bid with a win, while Lafayette needs to keep winning to retain its chances for an at-large bid.
Southern Conference
Four teams with conference championship and at-large hopes remain in the Southern Conference.
Appalachian State (8-2; 5-0)
The Mountaineers continued their winning ways on Saturday, thumping Chattanooga 49-7. They face Elon on Saturday in a game where a win would not only clinch the SOCON auto-bid, but would go a long way towards solidifying a seed as well. A win in either of their final two games puts them in the lock category.
Status: In the Hunt
Elon (8-2; 5-1)
The Phoenix have the daunting task on Saturday of facing down Appalachian State on the road. A win could result in a three-way tie at the top of the Southern conference, and a collective researching of tie-breaking scenarios. It would also put Elon in a position to take a seed. Winning one of their last two games puts them in the lock category
Status: In the Hunt
Wofford (7-2; 5-1)
The Terriers can still take the SOCON auto-bid should Elon win against Appalachian State on Saturday. As they defeated Citadel on Saturday, winning one out of their last two games should result in an at-large bid.
Status: In the Hunt
Furman (7-3; 4-2)
An idle week has probably allowed the Paladins to regroup from a tough loss at Appalachian State followed by a squeaker of an away win at Samford. They are now out of the SOCON title hunt, but would probably take an at-large bid by winning out. Winning one out of the last two would leave them living on a prayer.
Status: In the Hunt
Key game this week:
Elon at Appalachian State
Appalachian State clinches the SOCON auto-bid with a win, and either team would place themselves on the inside track to a seed with a win.
Southland Conference
The race for the auto-bid remains a mess, with all teams still alive with the exception of conference leader, Central Arkansas (which having probationary DI status is ineligible for the playoffs), and cellar-dweller Southeastern Louisiana. The other six teams in the conference, Northwestern State, Texas State, McNeese State, Sam Houston State, Stephen F. Austin, and Nicholls State are all alive with conference records of either 3-2 or 2-3. The scenarios are so limitless at this point that analysis will be deferred until next week.
Other at-large contenders
Cal Poly (7-1; 2-0)
The Mustangs are probably one win away from an at-large bid to the playoffs, mostly on the strength of their victory against FBS San Diego State. A seed looks unlikely, barring a win at FBS Wisconsin in their final game of the regular season.
Status: In the Hunt
Liberty (8-2; 3-0)
The Flames are alone at the top of the Big South, but this does not, yet, give them an automatic berth in the playoffs. They have a reasonable chance for an at-large bid, however, so long as they win one of their last two games. Should they defeat Elon to close out their regular season, expect an at-large bid.
Status: In the Hunt
Albany (7-3; 6-0)
The Great Danes played a meaningful OOC schedule this year, including 4 schools from the CAA. It is possible that defeating Wagner on Saturday, and finishing 8-3; 7-0 could result in an at-large bid to the playoffs, but this will probably be trumped by a team from a stronger conference with a similar record.
Status: Living on a Prayer
Prairie View A&M (8-1; 5-1)
The Panthers defeated Alabama A&M on Saturday to continue the possibility of SWAC participation in the playoffs. Winning out would, however, yield only the bare minimum of seven DI wins, and that against weak opposition, so their chances remain slim.
Status: Living on a Prayer
Dayton (9-1; 6-0)
As usual, the Pioneer Conference will, in all likelihood, get left out, even if Dayton does win out and post an 11-1 record. Their strongest non-conference tilts were against mid to lower range teams from two of the weaker conferences, the NEC and the Patriot League. The Selection Committee has been consistent in leaving out teams with profiles like this.
Status: Living on a Prayer
Sacred Heart (8-2; 4-2)
The loss to Monmouth on Saturday, coupled with weak computer numbers, means that the Pioneers' at-large hopes are finished.
Status: Off the Board
LSU Fans + Bama Fan + Alcohol + Pistol + Shotgun = Double Murder
Investigators said witnesses told them that Dennis Smith, an LSU fan, called Williams, a fan of the Crimson Tide, after the game Saturday evening and an argument ensued.
Officers said Donna Smith was a relative of Michael Williams' girlfriend.
Soon, the Smiths arrived at Williams' home and the men wound up in a physical altercation, officers said.
Smith retrieved a pistol from his vehicle, and threatened Williams, who armed himself with a shotgun and fired two blasts, striking and killing Dennis Smith, officers said.
Donna Smith then threatened Williams, who shot and killed the woman, they said.
Investigators said alcohol was believed to have been a factor in the killings, and the investigation was ongoing late Sunday.
What a shock. . .
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Link Roundup 11/09/08
Hell hath no fury like a sports dad scorned, and Buckeye receiver/returner Ray Small's dad isn't pleased that his son will not play in this weekend's OSU-Northwestern game. Buckeye coach Jim Tressel suspended the younger Small for one game--"to start with," in Tressel's words--for repeatedly violating team rules.David Mayo attempts to cheer up Michigan fans over the hiring of Rich Rodriguez, and scores some hits and highly offensive misses. A couple of the hits:
Small's dad, Ken Small, is calling shenanigans."They're intentionally trying to blow his career," Ken Small told The Associated Press by telephone from his home in suburban Columbus.There is evidence to suggest that Ray Small is blowing his own career, without any help from the Ohio State coaching staff. He was "demoted" from jersey number 4 to number 82 last spring; he is also the only Buckeye on scholarship without a biography in the school's media guide. Hence, he's clearly been in trouble before, and maybe he hasn't quite gotten the message yet.
7. Jim Harrick got fired as UCLA's basketball coach for filing padded expense reports. So Rhode Island hired him and he was accused of sexual misconduct by a secretary. So Georgia hired him and a player received an "A" for a course he never attended, taught by Harrick's son, among other scholastic oddities.
RichRod certainly won't get this many botched opportunities. But he never won a national championship, either.
6. Jan van Breda Kolff recruited a basketball player to St. Bonaventure whose qualification for admission was a welding certificate, leading to a far-reaching investigation ending in the ouster of the coach, athletic director and university president.
RichRod has a roster full of players majoring in something called General Studies. But U-M actually knows about it, so I guess it's all right.
UCLA forward Nikola Dragovic has been arrested on suspicion of battery:
Dragovic, a junior from Belgrade, Serbia, was allegedly involved in an altercation with his former girlfriend. Dragovic and his girlfriend lived together, according to Coach Ben Howland, who added that, "They're going through a breakup of that relationship."
Los Angeles Police Department officers arrested the 20-year-old Dragovic at about 4:20 p.m. at the apartment he and the woman had shared in the 3200 block of Overland Avenue. According to LAPD spokesman Jason Lee, Dragovic went to the apartment to collect his belongings. He found them dumped out front.
An argument ensued, during which Dragovic allegedly pushed the woman to the floor, Lee said.
Bail was set at $20,000. It was not known whether Dragovic was still in custody late Friday night.
Georgia Tech guard Lewis Clinch has been declared academically ineligible:
Georgia Tech senior Lewis Clinch is academically ineligible to participate in basketball and will not be available to play for the Yellow Jackets during the fall semester, head coach Paul Hewitt announced Friday.
The 6-3 guard from Cordele, Ga., can regain his eligibility following the semester, which ends Dec. 12. Tech has seven regular-season games as well as tonight's exhibition game scheduled before then.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #3
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #4
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2008 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2008: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Quarterfinals Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Semifinals Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results, Final Prediction, and FBS comment
This will be a weekly feature until selection day. Comments, corrections, and (constructive) criticism are most welcome.
Auto Bid Conferences
Big Sky Conference
A surprise at the top.
Weber State (8-2; 6-0)
The Wildcats have all but clinched the auto-bid from the Big Sky Conference, and have the difficult part of their schedule behind them, including victories against perennial powerhouses Montana and Montana State. Any Montana loss clinches the conference, as would any win against their remaining opponents, Idaho State (0-9; 0-5) and Eastern Washington (3-5; 2-3). Winning out probably yields the Wildcats a top four seed.
Montana (8-1; 4-1)
While chances of a conference title are slim, the Grizzlies could afford to lose two of its last three games and still gain an at-large bid. Should they win out, they will probably garner a top four seed.
Northern Arizona (6-3; 4-2)
Just two weeks ago, the Lumberjacks were in the thick of the Big Sky race. After losses to Weber State and Montana on successive weekends, they now find themselves needing to win out to have a realistic chance of an at-large bid to the playoffs.
Key game this week:
Montana State at Northern Arizona
Montana State is out of the mix, but Northern Arizona needs a win here to keep their at-large hopes alive.
Colonial Athletic Association
Once again this year, the CAA is both the biggest and baddest conference, with seven of its twelve teams still alive in the playoff hunt.
James Madison (8-1; 6-0)
The Dukes are the consensus #1 FCS team in the country, with their only loss coming against FBS Duke. That said, it will be a couple weeks before there is any clarity on the CAA auto-bid, and it could very well go done to the final Saturday, as it did last year. James Madison is idle this week, as they rest up before a huge game with William & Mary on November 15. It does, however, come down to this. Should they win out they will be the #1 seed.
New Hampshire (7-1; 4-1)
While FBS scalps were frequently won last year, they have been rare this year, but the Wildcats posted a resounding win against Army in the opening game of their season. They remain one of the four contenders for the CAA auto-bid, but have a tough path ahead of them, with their remaining three games all coming against playoff contenders. Should they win out, they will likely receive a seed on the basis of their FBS victory.
William & Mary (6-2; 4-1)
Although a seed for the Tribe would be a long shot, they are still very much in the hunt for the CAA title, as they are responsible for New Hampshire's sole loss, and face James Madison in two weeks time. Should they win out, all that would be required for a championship would be a loss by Villanova.
Villanova (6-2; 4-1)
The bad news for the Wildcats is that they have almost entirely exhausted their margin of error for an at-large bid. The good news is that their schedule is soft beyond this Saturday’s matchup with New Hampshire. They are still alive in the hunt for the CAA crown, but having lost to James Madison earlier in the season, would need a lot of things to happen which are beyond their control.
Massachusetts (6-3; 3-2)
The Minutemen are one of three teams in the CAA who are one loss away from likely elimination from at-large consideration. The path will not be easy, as Massachusetts will be entertaining Maine this weekend, and must follow that up with a visit to New Hampshire next weekend.
Maine (6-3; 3-2)
Like Massachusetts, the Black Bears have not yet posted a win against a playoff contender this year. They must win out to have an at-large chance, which would include victories at Massachusetts and hosting New Hampshire.
Richmond (6-3; 3-2)
The Spiders have a more realistic chance to reach the playoffs than either Maine or Massachusetts, as their next two games come against CAA cellar dwellers Hofstra and Delaware. It may come down to the final game of the season, when they travel to William & Mary.
Key games this week:
Maine at Massachusetts
This is essentially an elimination game.
UNH at Villanova
This is an elimination game where the CAA auto-bid hopes of the two teams are concerned.
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
The picture here is fairly simple, since none of the teams have a serious shot at an at-large bid. Three teams, South Carolina State (7-2; 5-0), Morgan State (6-3; 4-1) and Hampton (5-3; 4-1) are in serious contention for the auto-bid and Bethune-Cookman (6-2; 3-2) is still mathematically alive. Obviously, if South Carolina State wins out, they take the bid, but this requires a victory at Morgan State at November 15. If Morgan State won, they would, however, be forced to follow this up with a victory the next week when Hampton dropped in for a visit.
Key game this week:
Bethune-Cookman at Hampton
Bethune-Cookman is eliminated by a loss, and Hampton is eliminated by a loss and wins by Morgan State and South Carolina State.
Missouri Valley
The new-look MVFC has become a black and blue conference with the addition of both South and North Dakota State. Four teams are still alive in the conference title race, and three teams have at-large hopes.
Northern Iowa (7-2; 5-1)
While the Panthers lead the conference in the win column, they do not have their fate in their hands as a result of a loss at Southern Illinois on September 27. Should there be no slip-up by SIU, an at-large bid looks to be all but a formality, given that their final three games are against weak opposition. Winning out puts them in contention for a seed.
Southern Illinois (6-2; 4-1)
The Salukis are the only team left in the MVFC with their fate entirely in their own hands, as they will take the auto-bid, and put themselves into contention for a seed should they win out. The path is, however, difficult, as they must defeat fellow contenders Western Illinois and South Dakota State on successive weekends, and follow that up by taking care of business at Illinois State on the final weekend of the season. Taking two of the last three should result in an at-large bid.
South Dakota State (5-4; 4-1)
The at-large hopes of the Jackrabbits effectively ended with the loss to Cal Poly on October 18, but they retain a slim chance to take the MVFC auto-bid. That scenario requires winning out coupled with a loss by Northern Iowa in one of their final two conference games.
Western Illinois (5-3; 3-2)
The Leathernecks are still mathematically (but outlandishly) alive in the quest for the MVFC auto-bid, but would probably clinch an at-large bid by winning out. The crunch game comes this weekend when they visit Southern Illinois.
Key game this week:
Western Illinois at Southern Illinois
A loss here ends both the auto-bid and at-large chances for Western Illinois, while a loss by Southern Illinois puts them squarely on the bubble.
Ohio Valley Conference
The race for the conference title is still in question, but the computer numbers may not be strong enough this year for serious at-large contention.
Tennessee-Martin (7-2; 5-1)
The Skyhawks have a straightforward path to the OVC championship. They must defeat Southeast Missouri State (3-6; 1-4) on the road in two weeks time, follow that up with a win against Eastern Kentucky in the final game of the season, and hope that Tennessee State slips up. Absent that, an at-large bid seems unlikely barring a win against FBS Auburn this weekend.
Eastern Kentucky (6-3; 5-1)
After losing three of their first four games, the Colonels have rattled off five straight, and put themselves into contention for the auto-bid. This would require a home win against Murray State (3-6; 2-3) in two weeks, followed by a win at Tennessee-Martin, and at least one Tennessee State loss. Even if they win out, an at-large bid would be an extreme long shot.
Tennessee State (7-2; 4-1)
Having already defeated Tennesse-Martin and Eastern Kentucky, the Tigers have their fate in their hands. If they win out, they take the OVC auto-bid. The crunch game comes on November 15 when they visit Jacksonville State.
Jacksonville State (6-3; 4-2)
Losses to Tennessee-Martin and Eastern Kentucky mean that the Gamecocks chances of an OVC title and auto-bid are slim, but it could happen should they take down Tennessee State at home.
Key game this week:
Tennesse-Martin at Auburn
After starting 4-1, Auburn has lost its last four. Could the Skyhawks head down and steal one, and revive their at-large hopes in the process?
Patriot League
As with the OVC, the computer numbers may not be strong enough for an at-large bid, but the conference title is still wide open.
Colgate (7-2; 3-0)
The Raiders hold the whip hand in the Patriot League only because they face Holy Cross at home in the final game of the season. Of course should Colgate slip up this weekend when they visit Lehigh, that game might only be part of a very complicated picture.
Holy Cross (5-3; 3-0)
While Fordham should not give the Crusaders any problems, they face a tough road to the championship, as their final two games are road games against Lafayette and Colgate.
Lafayette (6-2; 2-1)
The loss to Colgate this weekend was a serious blow to the Leopards championship hopes. They must now win out, and hope that Colgate loses its last two games. At 9-2, Lafayette would, however, be in serious contention for an at-large bid.
Lehigh (3-5; 2-1)
Despite an awful OOC season, Lehigh is still alive for the conference championship. It would require them to win out, including victories at home this weekend versus Colgate and at Lafayette in the final game of the season, topped with two losses by Holy Cross.
Key game this week:
Colgate at Lehigh
Colgate can keep the conference race simple with a win, and Lehigh's hopes evaporate with a loss.
Southern Conference
Four teams with conference championship and at-large hopes remain in the Southern Conference.
Appalachian State (7-2; 5-0)
Despite getting thumped by FBS LSU and losing a close one at James Madison the Mountaineers look every bit as good as last year, a point emphasized by their 70-24 trouncing of Wofford on Saturday. They face only one remaining top-shelf opponent, Elon, at home in two weeks. Winning out would result in the SOCON title and a likely seed. One win in the final three games would clinch an at-large bid.
Elon (7-2; 5-1)
The Phoenix still have SOCON title hopes. All they have to do is take care of business against Western Carolina this weekend, and then visit Appalachian State and come away with a win, and a possible seed. (Should this scenario occur, and Wofford also wins out, we will all be researching tie-breakers) They can still afford one slip-up and receive an at-large bid.
Wofford (6-2; 4-1)
Before Friday, Wofford had to have fancied their chances for the SOCON title, given that they had trounced Elon, and had only one loss, to FBS South Carolina. Their title hopes rely winning out, and an Elon victory against Appalachian State. Whatever the scenario there, their at-large chances look solid should they win two out of their last three.
Furman (7-3; 4-2)
The Paladins remain mathematically alive in the title hunt, but, realistically, are hoping to win out and receive at at-large berth. Their most significant barrier? Visiting Wofford in the final game of the season.
Southland Conference
This conference race remains a mess, with all teams still alive with the ironic exception of Central Arkansas, the team at the top of the table (they still have probationary DI status and are ineligible for the playoffs). Northwestern State is a game ahead of all other contenders, but must face, you guessed it, Central Arkansas this weekend. Along with Northwestern State, McNeese State remains in the hunt for an at-large bid, but I will defer on further analysis of this conference until the next update. Hopefully there will be some clarity, or at minimum some separation after the results on Saturday.
Other at-large contenders
Cal Poly (6-0; 2-1)
In past seasons Caly Poly posted gaudy records against weak opposition, and found itself disappointed when it came time for selection. This year, they scheduled meaningful opposition, and posted wins against Northwestern State and South Dakota State, in addition to FBS San Diego State. They lost a heartbreaker to Montana, and had a game against McNeese State cancelled. Winning two out of their last three is realistic, and it would probably give them an at-large bid.
Liberty (7-2; 3-0)
The fact that Flames scheduled both MVFC and SOCON opposition OOC gives them a chance at an at-large bid should they win two of their last three games (which would give them seven DI wins). Should one of those wins come against Elon, EXPECT an at-large bid.
Sacred Heart (8-1; 4-1)
While the two of the Pioneers' victories were over DII opposition, winning out would give Sacred Heart a 10-1 record, including eight DI wins, with only a narrow loss to NEC leader Albany. At minimum, they would be under consideration.
Prairie View A&M (7-1; 4-1)
Winning out would give the Panthers a 9-1 record, and the bare minimum of seven DI wins necessary for consideration. As in past years, however, SWAC participation in the DI playoffs will likely be trumped by the Bayou Classic.
Dayton (8-1; 5-0)
As usual, the Pioneer Conference will, in all likelihood, get left out, even if Dayton does win out and post an 11-1 record. Their strongest non-conference tilts were against mid to lower range teams from two of the weaker conferences, the NEC and the Patriot League. The Selection Committee has been consistent in leaving out teams with profiles like this.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
NCAA Watch #2: Tougher Infractions Penalties?
• Employing a broader base of penalties, including fines, postseason bans and other punishments that have not been used in the recent past, such as the television ban.Fines: Why revive a penalty which did not work in the past, especially for the big-money programs which do not find them burdensome? If fines were revived, then they would merely become a 'cost of doing business'. Bad idea.
Postseason bans: Postseason bans are already utilized, but not enough, and the Infractions Committee needs more latitude to impose them. Excellent idea.
Television Bans: This would hit rule-breakers where it hurt, not only in terms of money, but publicity as well. It is also why, although it is a fabulous idea, one should not expect it to be adopted any time soon.
• Eliminating cooperation with the investigation as a mitigating factor in assessing penalties. . . .The Committee on Infractions believes that the more appropriate way to handle cooperation is to charge refusal to cooperate as an independent violation.Since the NCAA relies on institutions to self-report rule-breaking, this is a proposal which might hurt more than help. That said, any mitigation should still result in a proportional penalty, which has not always been the case in the past, hence the following:
• Assessing penalties that convey the magnitude of the violation, no matter the type of violation (for example, imposing a scholarship penalty even if the violation does not relate to financial aid).That is good common sense, but there is one for the lawyers:
• Making public the names of staff members involved in infractions cases.On the one hand, this is information which, as recent cases show, almost always hits the press. Given that the NCAA has been sued successfully even where names of boosters have been redacted from its reports, this is something that they may wish to remain careful about. Although there is this point:
[Jo] Potuto said cleansing the names from infractions reports is a practice that began before staff members accused of violations had the opportunity to respond to allegations of violations, appear before the Committee on Infractions and appeal any finding to the Infractions Appeals Committee.On the whole, there is nothing here to hold your breath about.
NCAA Watch #1: Egregious Failure in Gender Equity
Data from the newly released 2005-06 report indicate that in Division I, 66 percent of total expenses were directed toward men’s athletics versus 34 percent for women’s programs. Although the figures represent minimal changes from the 2003-04 report, the gap between men’s and women’s spending is slightly wider (three percentage points) for the 2005-06 report compared to the previous study.
In Division II, the proportion of total expenses devoted to men’s and women’s athletics remained the same (58 percent and 42 percent, respectively) as it was in the 2003-04 report. However, in Division III, the percentage for women’s athletics programs increased by two percentage points (to 44 percent), while men’s allocations dropped by two points to 56 percent. . . .
Head coaches’ salaries are often cited as a major factor in recent increases in athletics spending, and that could continue based on findings in the 2005-06 report. Data from 2005-06 show the proportion of money spent on salaries of head coaches of men’s teams still outpaces the proportion spent on head coaches of women’s teams in Divisions I, II and III, a trend that has remained relatively constant since the report was first issued in 1991-92.
In comparing 2003-04 and 2005-06 findings, Division III was the only division to register an increase, although it was insignificant at just 1 percent, in the proportion of total expenses being directed to head coaches of women’s teams.
Similarly, the proportion of assistant coaches’ salaries for women’s teams lags behind that of men’s programs in all three divisions, according to the 2005-06 report. At Division I institutions without football, assistants of women’s teams receive 47 percent of the salary dollars, which represents a small increase from 2003-04. Comparatively, in the other two divisions, assistants of women’s teams received not more than 31 percent of the salary budget. . . .
For more coverage see this article at Inside Higher Ed, which highlights another part of the problem:
Mercifully, this should change on Tuesday, whatever the result.Donna A. Lopiano, former head of the Women’s Sports Foundation and now president of Sports Management Resources, a consulting firm, attributed the apparent decline in support for women’s sports to a number of factors, including the slowdown in the growth of participation of female athletes in high school and college and a tightening economy. “Add in the continued arms race in men’s football and basketball, in particular the academic support building arms race and assistant coach salaries,” and it’s inevitable that athletics departments will have trouble finding enough money to go around, Lopiano said in an e-mail message.
In recent years, most Division I colleges have tended to deal with financial shortfalls by cutting back on men’s sports other than football and men’s basketball, which has often led advocates for those sports to blame the push for gender equity — and Title IX of the Education Amendments, the federal law that requires equitable treatment of female athletes — for their plight. But “with no more men’s sports to squeeze because they’ve already been cut,” Lopiano said, “now women’s sports are being squeezed.”
To top it off, she said, the Education Department’s Office for Civil Rights has largely stopped enforcing Title IX.
NCAA Penalizes U. of the District of Columbia
This case presented the single most egregious lack of institutional control ever seen by the committee. Even though the institution has no more than approximately 90 student- athletes whose eligibility has to be tracked at any given time, from the 2000-01 academic year through 2003-04, an astounding 248 student-athletes and two prospective student- athletes were allowed to practice or compete while ineligible and/or receive impermissible athletically related financial aid or housing. The student-athletes were ineligible due to the institution's failure to follow a number of long-time, basic rules that should have been easily adhered to: initial eligibility requirements, transfer requirements, satisfactory progress requirements and the completion of mandatory NCAA forms. . . .If only the NCAA would unload similarly on big-money Division I schools, but I digress. I held off on posting until I could get official comment from UDC:
Further, the institution failed to cooperate adequately with the enforcement staff in the investigation of the violations. The institution continually missed deadlines for submitting reports and did not adequately communicate with the enforcement staff. It compromised the integrity of the investigation when it interviewed certain witnesses after being asked to refrain from doing so and then failed to inform the staff that the interviews had occurred. It insisted on conducting an investigation independent of the enforcement staff, but was over two and one-half years late in submitting its final self-reports.
Finally, two former administrators violated the principles of ethical conduct. The former director of athletics refused to answer certain questions in his interviews with the enforcement staff, and the former faculty athletics representative provided false and misleading information regarding his role in the student-athlete certification process. . . .
88 student-athletes were permitted to practice and/or compete while academically ineligible. These student-athletes were ineligible for a variety of reasons including, but not limited to, failing to meet initial-eligibility requirements, failing to meet progress-toward-degree requirements, failing to meet two-year transfer requirements, failing to meet four-year transfer requirements and/or failing to satisfy the minimum 12- credit-hour requirement. The number of student-athletes per sport were as follows: men's basketball (26); women's basketball (seven); men's cross country (five); women's cross country (four); men's soccer (28); men's tennis (four); women's tennis (five) and women's volleyball (nine). . . .
When interviewed as part of the investigation, the former faculty athletics representative asserted that he played an integral role in the eligibility certification process. He claimed that every year he formulated an independent eligibility checklist while conducting a thorough analysis of the eligibility status of each student-athlete. None of the individuals interviewed, who were integral to the academic certification process for student-athletes, corroborated the former faculty athletics representative's account of his role. . . .
The penalties adopted and imposed by the committee are as follows: . . .
2. Five years of probation commencing on October 29, 2008, and running through
October 28, 2013. (The institution proposed a four-year term of probation.)
3. Cancellation of the seasons of competition in the following sports during the
academic years noted: men's basketball (2004-05), women's basketball (2004-05),
men's tennis (2004-05), women's tennis (2004-05), men's cross country (2005-06)
and women's cross country (2005-06). (Institution imposed.) . . .
5. Pursuant to NCAA Bylaws 19.5.2.20-(e) and 31.2.2.3-(b), vacation of all contests
from the academic years 2000-01 through 2003-04 in which student-athletes
competed while ineligible. . . .
9. None of the institution's athletics teams shall be eligible for postseason competition during the 2009-10 academic year. But for the institution's substantial self- imposed penalties, including the cancellation of the competition seasons for various sports, this post-season ban would have been imposed for two academic
years.
In response to the report, President Sessoms, who assumed the reigns at UDC just two months ago declares, “UDC understands and accepts today’s ruling by the NCAA Infractions Committee.” Sessoms further states, “The penalties proposed in the Committee’s report are consistent with our own recommendations and what we have already self-imposed. We understand that during the years 2000-2001 through 2003-2004 UDC failed to effectively carry out its responsibilities and obligations as a Division II member institution. UDC regrets that the violations occurred. The University has already taken proactive steps to ensure future compliance with all NCAA regulations.”There is, however, one proactive step that UDC has not taken. The NCAA report also notes:
This case once again highlights the difficulty in one person serving as athletic director and the head coach of a sport. The committee believes that if an institution is committed to participation as a member of Division II, it should be willing to commit adequate resources for athletic administration, including a fulltime athletic director and compliance officer.The acting Athletics Director at UDC is the head basketball coach, Julius Smith (who, it should be noted, arrived after the violations occurred). Lets hope that president Sessoms follows the NCAA's lead on this point.