NCAA Selection: What the Committee got Wrong

Congratulations to the NCAA selection committee for getting things mostly right this year, especially granting a deserving South Alabama an at-large bid. One could nit-pick endlessly and fruitlessly over seeding, but it is important to highlight the most significant things that they got wrong. These are part of an unhealthy trend.


Sins of Omission

The failure of the committee to grant Illinois State an at-large bid was the most significant sin of omission this year (a much weaker argument could be made for Dayton). Granted, Illinois State’s most significant wins, sweeps of in-conference opponents Creighton and Southern Illinois were not against NCAA tournament opponents. But it should be noted that 5 NCAA tournament teams, Butler, Drake, Indiana, St. Mary’s, and Western Kentucky visited the home floor of Southern Illinois this season. Only Butler and Indiana were victorious, and Butler’s victory came on a miracle buzzer-beating tre. Illinois State visited Southern Illinois on March 1 and came away with a 57-49 victory.

Illinois State also posted six more wins than two teams which made the field, Arizona and Oregon. Each of these teams finished poorly, with Oregon going 6-6 and Arizona 4-8 in the metric which the committee utilizes (digging a bit further back, Oregon lost 9 of its last 15). Illinois State finished 9-3, with two of those losses coming against #5 NCAA tournament seed Drake. The inclusion of Arizona and Oregon smacks of pandering to the BCS conferences, which have been progressively elbowing out the others when at-large bids are handed out.


Sins of Commission

The following represent the pairings for non-BCS teams in the seeding mid-range:

5 Notre Dame v. 12 George Mason
5 Michigan State v. 12 Temple
5 Drake v. 12 Western Kentucky
6 Oklahoma v. 11 Saint Joseph’s
7 Gonzaga v. 10 Davidson
7 Butler v. 10 South Alabama
7 Miami v. 10 Saint Mary’s
8 UNLV v. 9 Kent State
8 BYU v. 9 Texas A&M

Is this entirely incidental? I hope so. But it is certainly suspicious that a disproportionate number of these pairings automatically prevent non-BCS teams from advancing to the second round. This phenomenon is a continuation from last year, when the committee managed to place three non-BCS teams with a national ranking, Creighton, Memphis, and Nevada, all within the same initial pod of four teams.


The committee should, however, be thank for their work and it should be noted that no matter what they do, the upsets always seem to come. Let the madness begin!

March Madness: Projecting the Field

Here is the field of 65 as I would choose it:


Auto-Bids:

American Patriot; Arkansas or Georgia SEC; Austin Peay OVC; Belmont Atlantic Sun; Boise State WAC; Butler Horizon; Cal State Fullerton Big West; Clemson or North Carolina ACC; Coppin State MEAC; Cornell Ivy; Davidson Southern; Drake MVC; George Mason CAA; Illinois or Wisconsin Big 10; Kansas or Texas Big 12; Kent State MAC; Maryland Baltimore County America East; Memphis CUSA; Mississippi Valley State SWAC; Mt. Saint Mary’s NEC; Northwestern State or Texas Arlington Southland; Oral Roberts Summit; Pittsburgh Big East; Portland State Big Sky; San Diego WCC; Siena Mid-American; Temple A10; UCLA Pac 10; UNLV MWC; Western Kentucky Sun Belt; Winthrop Big South.


At-Large Bids:

Marginal teams not included in the Bubble Breakdown below are discussed, as are the implications of today’s games.

(Arkansas SEC) – Arkansas will take this spot only if they lose today in the finals of the SEC tournament.
Baylor Big 12 – Baylor was a mediocre 9-7 in conference, and had only a 3-8 record versus the top 50, but picked up only one bad loss and had a solid 9-6 RD/NT record.
BYU MWC – Brigham Young only has two top 50 wins, but was the regular season champion of a top-ten RPI conference, and reached its conference finals.
Clemson or North Carolina ACC – One of these teams will take the ACC auto-bid, the other is a safe at-large candidate.
Connecticut Big East
Dayton A10
Duke ACC
Georgetown Big East
Gonzaga WCC
Illinois State MVC – The explicit rationale for including Air Force in 2006 was that it was ‘The #2 team in the #8 RPI conference.” This describes Illinois State this year, which compared to Air Force in 2006, also has two more top 50 wins, an RPI 17 spots better, and a non-conference Strength of Schedule 156 spots better. Illinois State also reached the finals of its tournament, unlike Air Force, which crashed out in the first round.
Indiana Big 10
Kansas or Texas Big 12 – One of these teams will take the ACC auto-bid, the other is a safe at-large candidate.
Kansas State Big 12
Kentucky Big 12 - There might be a question if the bubble were stronger this year, but the 12-5 conference record coupled with 9-3 down the stretch clearly gets Kentucky in.
Louisville Big East
Marquette Big East
Miami ACC – Miami was mediocre 8-8 in conference after an 11-0 start, including three bad losses, but did pick up quality wins against Duke and Clemson.
Michigan State Big 10
Mississippi State SEC – Mississippi State went only 2-7 versus the RPI top 50, and had one bad loss, but did top the SEC West.
Notre Dame Big East
Oklahoma Big 12
Purdue Big 10 – A bubble candidate? No given the 2nd placed finish in the Big 10 and a 5-4 record versus the top 50. But Purdue’s 4 bad losses will not likely be overlooked when it comes to seeding.
Saint Joseph’s A10 – Entering the A10 tournament, St. Joseph’s looked like a dead duck after losing 6 of their previous 9 games. The run to the finals, including a win against Xavier probable puts them in given the 5-6 record versus the top 50.
South Alabama Sun Belt – Granted, two of South Alabama’s top 50 wins were against in-conference Western Kentucky, and they picked up some bad losses. The crucial thing is that South Alabama showed they could defeat tough opposition out of conference when they took down Mississippi State. It should also be noted that South Alabama stretched Vanderbilt to two overtimes on the road.
Stanford Pac 10
St. Mary’s WCC
Tennessee SEC
Texas A&M Big 12 – Despite the mediocre 8-8 conference record, Texas A&M went 5-7 versus the RPI top 50, and picked up no bad losses.
USC Pac 10
Vanderbilt SEC
Washington State Pac 10
West Virginia Big East
(Wisconsin Big 10) Wisconsin will take this spot only if they lose in the finals of the Big 10 tournament
Xavier A10


Multiple Bid Conferences:

Big East: 7 or 8
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5 or 6
Pac 10: 4 or 5
Big 10: 4 or 5
ACC: 4
Atlantic 10: 4
West Coast: 3
Missouri Valley: 2
Mountain West: 2
Sun Belt: 2


Bubble Discussion

Kansas State Big 12 (19-11; RPI 49; SOS 33; 3-6 1-50; 5-7 last 12; 10-7 in conference; 1 bad loss; 5-9 RD/NT)
The fact that a resume like this puts you on the right side of the bubble this year illustrates the mediocrity of this years' bubble teams. It is also a wonderful illustration of why there is no need to expand the number of teams in the tournament field. The top 50 wins and the 10-7 conference record trump the awful 5-7 record down the stretch.

Dayton A10 (21-10; RPI 32; SOS 34; 4-4 1-50; 6-6 last 12; 9-9 in conference; 4 bad losses; 7-7 RD/NT)
Once again, these numbers are mediocre. But Dayton will probably benefit from the fact that they were missing key personnel during the mid-season slump which saw them fall from 14-1 to 17-9.

----------------------------- Cut Line #1 (Valid with losses by Arkansas and Wisconsin)
Villanova Big East (20-12; RPI 51; SOS 48; 4-7 1-50; 7-5 last 12; 10-10 in conference; 4 bad losses; 8-9 RD/NT)
Why does Villanova beat out the following teams? Principally because it was not AS hopeless as the other teams discussed here going down the stretch.

----------------------------- Cut Line #2 (Valid with a loss by Arkansas or Wisconsin)
Arizona State Pac 10 (19-12; RPI 83; SOS 77; 6-7 1-50; 5-7 last 12; 9-10 in conference; 2 bad losses; 6-8 RD/NT)
I hate seeing teams with negative records in conference and down the stretch, especially when they shopped around for the #296 non-conference SOS in the country. But Arizona State is more deserving than any of the teams which follow it. I have them in over Oregon barely (they split the head to head match ups this season) on the strength of quality wins and RD/NT record.

----------------------------- Cut Line #3 (Valid with wins by Arkansas and Wisconsin)
Oregon Pac 10 (18-13; RPI 58; SOS 37; 3-6 1-50; 6-6 last 12; 9-10 in conference; 2 bad losses; 6-10 RD/NT)
Syracuse Big East (19-13; RPI 55; SOS 9; 3-8 1-50; 6-6 last 12; 9-10 in conference; 2 bad losses; 5-8 RD/NT)
The RD/NT record and the more mediocre top 50 record keep Syracuse out.
Mississippi SEC (21-10; RPI 46; SOS 64; 5-3 1-50; 5-7 last 12; 7-10 in conference; 6 bad losses; 7-8 RD/NT)
Mississippi has a 5-3 record versus the top 50, but their bad losses and a conference record 3 games short of .500 should keep them out.
Florida State ACC (19-14; RPI 59; SOS 15; 3-6 1-50; 6-6 last 12; 8-10 in conference; 3 bad losses; 6-10 RD/NT)
Out as a result of their negative conference and RD/NT records, and the bad losses.
Arizona Pac 10 (18-14; RPI 38; SOS 2; 5-8 1-50; 4-8 last 12; 9-11 in conference; 2 bad losses; 8-8 RD/NT)
This one is painful. But a team that goes 4-8 in its last 12 does not deserve to be in.


Out

Charlotte A10 – 5 bad losses
Creighton MVC – 1-7 versus the top 50
Massachusetts A10 – 1-5 versus the top 50
New Mexico MWC – 1-4 versus the top 50
Ohio State Big 10 – 2-10 versus the top 50
Southern Illinois MVC – 6 bad losses, 5-10 RD/NT record
UAB CUSA – 0-2 versus the top 50
Virginia Commonwealth CAA – 0-2 versus the top 50
Virginia Tech ACC – 1-7 versus the top 50. To Seth Greenburg: I have immense respect for you. You are one of the good guys in College Basketball. But leaving out a team that failed to take all but one of its chances to defeat a top 50 team does not make one certifiable.


UPDATE 3:20 PM

Texas Arlington has defeated Northwestern State 82-79 in the Southland Conference finals to make the field.

Projected play in game:
Mississippi Valley State (SWAC) v. Mount Saint Mary's (NEC)

With North Carolina defeating Clemson 86-81 in the ACC finals, I can now project the top eight seeds:

#1 Seeds:
1. North Carolina ACC
2. Memphis CUSA
3. UCLA P10
4. Texas/Kansas winner B12

#2 Seeds:
1. Texas/Kansas loser B12
2. Tennessee SEC
3. Georgetown Big East
4. Wisconsin Big 10


UPDATE 4:35 PM

The play in game has been announced:
Coppin State (MEAC) v. Mount Saint Mary's (NEC)


UPDATE 5:36 PM

Kansas has defeated Texas 84-74 and has probably earned themselves a #1 seed.

Illinois has fallen to Wisconsin 61-48 and fails to steal a bid.

Georgia 66
Arkansas 57
final

Congratulations to Georgia on stealing a bid. Given that coach Dennis Felton has been under fire for doing things right, it could not have happened to a more deserving team.

ASU Baseball: Jason Jarvis Declared Ineligible

The first direct fallout from the looming scandal at Arizona State has landed, with pitcher Jason Jarvis being declared academically ineligible to compete:

Arizona State closer Jason Jarvis on Wednesday was ruled ineligible for the rest of the season, a decision that very likely ends his college career.

An appeal last week of a first-semester grade in an online music course upheld that Jarvis, a sophomore who had two saves this season and 11 last year, did not follow directions while taking an exam. That led to a grade lower than what he needed to be eligible.

Since Jarvis has disclosed that he took all online tests in similar fashion, he would likely face a number of grade changes that “would make it impossible for him to regain his eligibility,” coach Pat Murphy said. . . .

“Jason was not found guilty of academic dishonesty,” Murphy said. “When you look at the entire situation, the conclusion you reach is that at best, this is unfortunate. At worst, it’s unfair.”

The 6-foot-2, 195-pounder had been granted temporary eligibility before the second game of the season, against Vanderbilt on Feb. 23, pending resolution of his appeal.

For his part, Jason Jarvis blames the ASU administration, and hopes to enter the MLB draft:

A short time ago I requested a hearing to appeal a grade change which resulted in the A that I rightfully earned, being dropped to an XE on an Internet music course that I took in the fall of 2007. An XE grade indicates academic dishonesty which I did not commit. My appeal was upheld and I was exonerated for the academic dishonesty. However, the Herberger College of the Arts will not restore my grade back to the A that I rightfully earned so I will get no credit for taking the 3 credit class. According to the NCAA regulations, I am now considered academically ineligible for the 2008 baseball season. I could stay in school and regain my eligibility next year, however, I am continually amazed with the inconsistent way the ASU administration randomly executes their rules to suit themselves with no care whatsoever for the student. So, rather than continue to struggle through the academic bureaucracy at ASU I have decided to pursue a career in professional baseball and I am currently in the process of petitioning the commissioner of MLB to approve me to enter this years amateur draft in June.

The glaring omission in this statement is, of course, what the A mark was changed to. . .

Series:
1. Arizona State: Scandal Looming in Baseball Program
2. Arizona State Baseball: Jason Jarvis Speaks Out
3. ASU Baseball: Cheating in Online Music Course?
4. ASU Baseball: Jason Jarvis Declared Ineligible

ASU Baseball: Cheating in Online Music Course?

Where have we heard that before. . . There is an excellent piece up at ESPN.com on Arizona State baseball coach Pat Murphy which is worth reading in its entirety. It also contains a few new details on the alleged misconduct within the program:

The complexity and seeming candor of Pat Murphy, undoubtedly, is making things difficult for Arizona State. When a coach is the subject of a university investigation and a school hires an outside firm to determine if he's broken NCAA rules, the normal protocol is that all parties must keep quiet.

"BASEBALL QUESTIONS ONLY," an ASU media type barks after the top-ranked Sun Devils blast Michigan on a cool desert night recently. A gaggle of reporters has little interest in Ike Davis' bat but ample curiosity about the internal rift that could put a major dent in one of college baseball's powerhouses. "IF YOU ASK A NON-BASEBALL QUESTION, THE PRESS CONFERENCE WILL BE OVER."

Murphy, it seems, can't help himself. . . .

Step almost anywhere near Brock Ballpark, and they'll say Mikel Moreno is wrong and Pat Murphy is right. They'll paint Moreno as a bitter 32-year-old valet with fading dreams, an ex-employee bent on taking down a man who's been near the top of his profession for almost two decades. They'll say Moreno's allegations of academic fraud, recruiting violations and other improprieties are unfounded.

But step further, past the campus skateboarders and fist-pumping boosters, and you'll hear people call Moreno a "true Sun Devil," a hard-nosed former MVP outfielder who lived for the maroon-and-gold and just wants to do what is right. . . .

Moreno told investigators from Ice Miller, an Indianapolis-based law firm hired by ASU, that he called and made at least one recruiting visit to meet with coveted junior-college slugger Kiel Roling, eventually convincing Roling to withdraw his commitment to Mississippi and instead go to Tempe. Moreno was listed as a graduate manager at the time. Under NCAA rules, only coaches are allowed to recruit.

Moreno also made allegations of academic fraud.

When word of the university investigation hit in late-February, rumors swirled that more than half the team would be suspended for academic reasons. Murphy has disputed the rumors. The Sun Devils shrugged off the talk and rolled to a 12-0 start.

But questions still linger. Former ASU pitcher Jason Mitchell, who transferred to Central Arizona, told ESPN.com that he and a handful of teammates took online quizzes together last year and helped each other with the answers. Mitchell says the course, Music 354, was popular among baseball players. One semester they'd learn about the history of Elvis; another semester delves into the Beatles.

"We'd take it one at a time," Mitchell says. "One person would go, and the next person would go, and the answers would be the same.

"It is cheating, but I don't think it was anything major. I have friends outside the baseball team in the same classes, and they'd do the same thing. Every single person I knew did the same thing."

Mitchell says Murphy never encouraged him to cheat. The players knew grades were important. If you weren't dedicated enough to go to class, you weren't dedicated enough to play. In team meetings, Murphy called out players who struggled with grades. . . .

Though he calls Mitchell "a good kid," Murphy says he's upset by his former pitcher's claim. He says the university needs to take a serious look at online classes and whether they lend themselves to misdeeds. . . .

Murphy says he's confident the only thing the investigation will drudge up is ticky-tack unwitting violations.

We will see.

Series:
1. Arizona State: Scandal Looming in Baseball Program
2. Arizona State Baseball: Jason Jarvis Speaks Out
3. ASU Baseball: Cheating in Online Music Course?
4. ASU Baseball: Jason Jarvis Declared Ineligible

Completely Irrelevant RPI Data (To the Pollsters) Final 08 Edition

So, who does better job of determining the strength of teams? Sports writers? The secretaries for college basketball coaches? The RPI? Completely Irrelevant RPI Data is here to help you decide. And as always, do not miss Goro’s Rants, especially this gem of a comment this week:

The definition of a good coach, in an ideal world, should be first and foremost, ahead of any win totals, the ability to graduate his players. Something like 45 out of 48 players under Hinson's watch will have graduated and are now a part of the Missouri State fraternity.

Unfortunately, in today's win-at-all-costs mentality, a coach only gets a finite time to get his team to the NCAA tourney before the university heads get in a snit and pull the plug. It didn't matter that Barry's AVERAGED 19 wins per year, or that he's become such a well-respected dignitary for the conference.

I put all the blame on the insanity and moronity of the NCAA selection committee nitwits during Hinson's tenure in not inviting three very deserving Missouri State teams to the NCAA tourney (2000, 2006, and 2007). Their obvious BCS vanity is by far the biggest reason why Barry's not coming back, and that's really sad. My admonition for the cognitively-challenged MSU bigwigs is this: the new court's got some nice amenities, but you'll be lucky to keep any new coach around another nine years like you just had with Barry Hinson.

The Hall of Shame

[Team Record Conference (AP ranking, Espn/USA ranking, RPI ranking) Difference between poll average and RPI]

#1 Purdue 24-7 BE (17,16, 37) +20.5

Two weeks ago, Purdue was over-ranked at #16 and #19. Over the past two weeks Purdue beat mediocre Minnesota and awful Northwestern at home. They followed that up by losing on the road to an Ohio State team which is on or around the bubble, before somehow managing to struggle on the road at Michigan before ultimately pulling away. The pollsters managed to reward this series of mediocre performances with an average one spot rise in the polls. To play the broken record, the Big 10 is just not that good this year. Beyond a couple wins against Texas, Big 10 teams had a distinctly undistinguished out of conference record, and Purdue is a classic example. Not only was Purdue defeated by #169 Iowa State on a neutral court, but they also lost AT HOME to #194 Wofford.

#2 Davidson 23-6 Southern (23,25, 41) +17

Davidson falls out of the top spot, but maintains its spot in the Hall of Shame after a week in which it continued to beat up on awful opposition and was rewarded with an average three spot rise in the polls. Lets play blind resumes. Team A has a 26-5 record, which includes a 3-2 record versus the RPI top 50 and a 4-3 record versus the RPI top 100. Additionally, one of Team A’s losses came on the road in double overtime to a ranked team. Team B has a 25-6 record which includes a 0-3 record versus the RPI top 50 and an 0-5 record versus the RPI top 100. Team B played two ranked teams close at home but lost in regular time in both instances. Which team deserves votes in the polls? Which team deserves an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament? Team A naturally, which happens to be South Alabama, which received a total of 53 votes in the two polls this week. Team B is Davidson, which received a total of 241 votes in the two polls this week. Both teams need wins in their conference tourneys to be sure of spots in the dance, but should Davidson lose, they can count on a trip to the NIT, unlike South Alabama, who would still be in with a shout.

Davidson supporters – if you comment here, kindly put those wonderful educations to good use and produce some solid analysis on why I am wrong.

Editorial Note: This was written before last night’s games, which resulted in Davidson winning the Southern Conference tourney, and South Alabama losing in the semifinals of the Sun Belt tourney. Best wishes to Davidson in the quest to validate your ranking with a Sweet Sixteen run. This would, naturally, prove me wrong. Best of luck to South Alabama in your quest for an at-large bid. You represent one of the more interesting bubble cases this year.

#3 Gonzaga 25-6 WCC (20,22, 30) +9

Gonzaga climbs back into third place in this weeks Hall of Shame after two wins against an awful Santa Clara team resulted in a rise in its ranking in both polls. QUE? Gonzaga has one signficiant victory since December 1, on March 1 at home against St. Mary’s. Throughout December, January, and February, Gonzaga developed a shiny record based on wins against patsies while losing to the quality teams it faced. This team is NCAA-worthy but not ranking-worthy, and at some point the afterglow from the Elite 8 run NINE years ago needs to wear off. . .

#4 Butler 28-3 HORZ (12,10, 18) +7

After a couple weeks on the sidelines, Butler re-joins the Hall of Shame after it rose an average of two spots in the poll on the strength of a neutral-court victory over, drum roll please, ILLINOIS CHICAGO! WOW! HOW STUNNING! As in past weeks, the best illustration of Butler’s over-ranking is a direct comparison with Drake. Drake is a team which beat Butler on its home court on February 23rd, but continues to languish well behind (#16, #18 this week) in the rankings. Butler’s best wins came against #49 Ohio State, #57 Virginia Tech, #59 Texas Tech, #62 Southern Illinois, and #64 Florida State, with all of these coming in November and December. Drake’s Best wins came against #18 Butler, #31 Illinois State (X3), #51 Creighton (X2), and #62 Southern Illinois, with the latest of these coming on Sunday. The only category in which Butler can claim the advantage is the arena of bad losses, of which it has none, unlike Drake, which has two (#102 Bradley and #124 Missouri State). All told, Butler is evens at best with Drake. It will be interesting to see how far these two teams progress, if at all, in the tournament.

#5 Stanford 24-6 P10 (11,11, 17) +6

You heard it hear first: “Stanford is not top ten material - at least four teams, Xavier, Wisconsin, Georgetown, and Texas deserve to be ranked higher. This will be established when Stanford loses at UCLA on Thursday, and struggles on the road at USC on Saturday.” Let us remind ourselves of Stanford’s out of conference strength of schedule (#296) which was achieved by playing the following patsies at home: #183 Yale; #188 Santa Clara; #223 Northwestern State; #237 Fresno State; #273 Colorado State; #308 Harvard. They rounded this off with #335 Sacramento State, a 4-24 team whose best win came by one point, at home, against #231 Montana State.

Dropped from rankings:
Mississippi State (now unranked)


The House of Pain

[Team Record Conference (AP ranking, Espn/USA ranking, RPI ranking) Difference between poll average and RPI]

#1 Oklahoma 21-10 B12 (33,NR, 25) –9.5

I did a double take when this one popped up. Oklahoma was left for dead at 3-5 in the conference, and 15-8 overall after an awful loss AT Colorado State on February 9. Since then, they have won six of their last eight, including wins against Baylor, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech, and have made themselves a team worthy of an at-large berth without most people noticing. This is not to say, however, that they are deserving of top 25 spot. . .

#2 Vanderbilt 25-6 SEC (18,17, 10) –7.5

Vanderbilt remains the most consistently disrespected team from the big conferences, although it is difficult to find any fault for their drop in the polls this week given that they lost at ALABAMA to close out their regular season. . .

#3-T Indiana 25-6 B10 (22,20, 16) –5

*GIGGLE* Indiana becomes the first team in the history of this feature to appear in both the Hall of Shame and the House of Pain in the same season. But frankly, this team is clearly not playing to the same level under Dakich as it had under Sampson, and the loss at Penn State on Sunday is a brilliant illustration. At the rate things are going downhill, Indiana may be happy with a second-round exit, as opposed to the Final 4 that was being predicted a few short weeks ago.

#3-T Drake 28-4 MVC (16,18, 12) –5

See above under Butler.

#3-T South Alabama 26-5 Sun Belt (28,30, 24) –5

See above under Davidson.

Dropped from Rankings: Arizona (out of RPI top 25); Pittsburgh (out of RPI top 25)


Average Conference (or State or Category) Bias:

Media Darlings: +11 (Butler, Gonzaga, Davidson)
Teams from Indiana: +6.9 (Butler, Notre Dame Purdue, Indiana,)
Big 10: +4.4 (Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan State, Indiana)
Pac 10: +2.8 (UCLA, Stanford, Washington State)
All Others: +2.4 (Memphis, Xavier, Butler, Drake, Gonzaga, Brigham Young, Davidson, South Alabama)
Big East: +.1 (Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Marquette)
ACC: -2 (North Carolina, Duke, Clemson)
Big 12: -2.8 (Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma)
SEC: -5.25 (Tennessee, Vanderbilt)

After several weeks of constricting biases, things went in the opposite direction this time, for the most part because there are certain teams, like Purdue, which are rarely penalized for losses as they should be, and others, like Vanderbilt, who do not get the benefit of the doubt. The action around Purdue meant that the Hoosier love-fest continued. On other fronts, the ‘Media Darlings’ continued to attract suitors. . .


Teams with closest correlation between ranking and RPI:

1. Memphis +.5
2-T. North Carolina, Connecticut, Washington State (+1, +1, -1)
5. Marquette (-1.5)


Teams included in analysis:

[Any team in the top 25 of the AP Poll, the Coaches Poll, or the RPI.]

North Carolina 29-2 ACC; Memphis 30-1 CUSA; UCLA 28-3 P10; Tennessee 28-3 SEC; Kansas 28-3 B12; Texas 26-5 B12; Wisconsin 26-4 B10; Duke 26-4 ACC; Georgetown 25-4 BE; Xavier 26-5 A10; Butler 28-3 HORZ; Stanford 24-6 P10; Louisville 24-7 BE; Notre Dame 24-6 BE; Connecticut 24-7 BE; Purdue 24-7 BE; Drake 28-4 MVC; Vanderbilt 25-6 SEC; Michigan State 24-7 B10; Gonzaga 25-6 WCC; Indiana 25-6 B10; Washington State P10; Brigham Young 25-6 MWC; Davidson 25-6 Southern; Marquette 22-8 BE; Clemson 22-8 ACC; South Alabama 26-5 Sun Belt; Oklahoma 21-10 B12.

Grats to the Pioneers/Graduation Data

Many congratulations to the Pioneers of the University of Denver on taking their 19th NCAA Skiing Championship last week. Denver placed amongst the top five schools in all events, but the outcome was in doubt until its skiers finished an impressive first, second, and eighth in the Men's Slalom on the final day. This allowed them to outdistance second-place University of Colorado by a final margin of 649.5 to 619 points, with the University of Utah finishing a distant third at 550. No specific graduation data is listed for Skiing, but these schools post graduation rates of 83%, 64%, and 58% in sports 'Other' than Football, Basketball, Baseball, and Cross-Country/Track. Cheers to Denver. Jeers to Colorado and Utah.

Special kudos must go to the Panthers of Middlebury College, who, despite being a non-scholarship Division III school, placed fifth overall with 529 points.

The outstanding individual skiiers in the championship were Marie Moe Grevsgaard and Lucie Sikova of Colorado, who were victorious in both races in Women's Nordic and Alpine, and John Buchar of Denver, who won both Men's Alpine races. The following skiers finished on the podium:

Women's Freestyle (Nordic)
1. Marie Moe Grevsgaard, Colorado
2. Lenka Palanova, Colorado
3. Annelise Bailly, Denver

Men's Freestyle (Nordic)
1. Glenn Randall, Dartmouth
2. Marius Korthauer, Alaska-Fairbanks
3. Jesper Ostensen, Colorado

Women's Giant Slalom (Alpine)
1. Lucie Zikova, Colorado
2. Eva Huckova, Utah
3. Lyndee Janowiak, Vermont

Men's Giant Slalom (Alpine)
1. John Buchar, Denver
2. Greg Hardy, Vermont
3. Erik Gilbert, Vermont

Women's Classical (Nordic)
1. Marie Moe Grevsgaard, Colorado
2. Polina Ermoshina, New Mexico
3. Antje Maempel, Denver

Men's Classical (Nordic)
1. Marius Korthauer, Alaska-Fairbanks
2. Kit Richmond, Colorado
3. Juergen Uhl, Vermont

Women's Slalom (Alpine)
1. Lucie Zikova, Colorado
2. Eva Huckova, Utah
3. Jenni Lathrop, Denver

Men's Slalom (Alpine)
1. John Buchar, Denver
2. Seppi Stiegler, Denver
3. David Chodounsky, Dartmouth

Additionally, seven skiers from non-scholarship Division III schools posted top ten finishes and earned All-American Status: Alexa Turzian, Middlebury (2 events); Alec Tarberrry, Middlebury (2 events); Sylvan Ellefson, Bates; Charles Christianson, Williams; Andrew Wagner, Middlebury; Eric Mann, Williams; Megan Hughes, Middlebury. They represent the true ideal of what it means to be a STUDENT-athlete. Congratulations!

NCAA Football: Police Blotter 03-09-2008

Josh Jarboe of Oklahoma, story from the Atlanta Journal Constitution:

DeKalb County star high school football player Josh Jarboe was arrested Thursday evening for receiving stolen property and having a weapon on school property both felony charges for one of the nation's top college recruits. . . .

Jarboe is a standout wide receiver from Cedar Grove High School, ranked by Rivals.com as the 10th-best wide receiver nationally in the Class of 2008.

He committed last month to play for the University of Oklahoma, choosing the Sooners over Florida, Georgia and LSU.

Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops is aware of Jarboe's arrest but has no comment, according to Kenny Mossman, a senior associate athletics director for communications at Oklahoma.

"He isn't going to make a public comment until the matter moves further along, and then only if it's necessary,'' Mossman said . "For now, the best thing to say is that he has knowledge of it and is monitoring it. ... I don't know if he's spoken to [Jarboe].''

Maurice Simmons of USC, story from the Los Angeles Times:

Maurice Simmons, a linebacker who signed a letter of intent with USC, was arraigned Friday in Compton Superior Court and charged with felony robbery and assault with a firearm in connection with an incident that allegedly took place this week. . . .

Simmons and Hall were arrested Wednesday night after they allegedly robbed a man at gunpoint on a Compton street.

Los Angeles County sheriff's deputies arrested the two men after they stopped a car being driven by Simmons and found a handgun and the alleged belongings of the alleged victim, sheriff's officials said.

USC Coach Pete Carroll said Thursday night that he was aware of "reports" of Simmons' arrest and that he was attempting to gather more information. He declined to comment further.

Justin Francis of Rutgers, story from the Star-Ledger:

A member of the Rutgers football team has been arrested after he allegedly robbed a man in a campus parking lot in New Brunswick, then threatened a student with an air pistol after knocking on his apartment door, authorities said.

An alert sent out by the university reported that Justin Francis, a native of Miramar, Fla., knocked on student's door Sunday night, pulled the trigger three times when the man answered, then ran away, laughing. A short time earlier, he allegedly displayed the fake gun and demanded a cell phone from a man in a university parking lot, police said. . . .

Rutgers football coach Greg Schiano said he could not comment in detail on the matter.

"I don't have a ton of information. I'm going to let the legal system, as I usually do, run its course and I may comment on it then," Schiano said. "But he has been suspended from our team indefinitely."

James Cleveland and Arvell Nelson of Iowa, story from the Des Moines Register:

Two suspended members of the Iowa Hawkeye football team — James Cleveland and Arvell Nelson — have been dismissed from the team by head coach Kirk Ferentz.

The dismissal was announced in a statement issued Thursday the day after Cleveland, entered a not guilty to three charges relating to his arrest of alleged illegal possession of prescription drugs.

“It’s disappointing anytime one of our players doesn’t complete his career with our team and go on to earn their degree from Iowa,” Ferentz said in a statement. “That being said, we wish both James and Arvell success in the future.”

Cleveland, 19, entered the written plea in response to a Feb. 23 arrest by campus police after officer found 21 units of the commonly-abused prescription pain killer oxycodone and 24 doses of muscle relaxant carisoprodol in a his room. Police say that Cleveland acknowledged the drugs belong to him.

Andy Christensen of Nebraska, story from the Lincoln Journal Star:

Nebraska offensive lineman Andy Christensen wound up in jail and indefinitely suspended from the team after Lincoln police were called to the Brass Rail early Saturday in response to an alleged sexual assault.

Lincoln Police Capt. Joseph Wright said Christensen, 21, was jailed on suspicion of first-degree sexual assault, resisting arrest and failure to comply.

Wright said Christensen allegedly approached a 23-year-old woman from behind and put his hand under her skirt. . . .

Christensen remained in the Lancaster County Jail Saturday night. He is to be arraigned Monday.

Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini said in a statement that he was aware of the arrest of Christensen, a key cog on the Huskers’ offensive line the past two years.

“The charges against Andy are serious in nature and these types of actions will not be tolerated,” Pelini said. “Andy has been indefinitely suspended from our football program. I will address Andy’s future status when more complete details regarding the situation are available.”

What these coaches really need to comment on is their recruiting practices. And what I really need this morning is a second shower. . .