Completely Irrelevant RPI Data (To the Pollsters) Final 08 Edition

So, who does better job of determining the strength of teams? Sports writers? The secretaries for college basketball coaches? The RPI? Completely Irrelevant RPI Data is here to help you decide. And as always, do not miss Goro’s Rants, especially this gem of a comment this week:

The definition of a good coach, in an ideal world, should be first and foremost, ahead of any win totals, the ability to graduate his players. Something like 45 out of 48 players under Hinson's watch will have graduated and are now a part of the Missouri State fraternity.

Unfortunately, in today's win-at-all-costs mentality, a coach only gets a finite time to get his team to the NCAA tourney before the university heads get in a snit and pull the plug. It didn't matter that Barry's AVERAGED 19 wins per year, or that he's become such a well-respected dignitary for the conference.

I put all the blame on the insanity and moronity of the NCAA selection committee nitwits during Hinson's tenure in not inviting three very deserving Missouri State teams to the NCAA tourney (2000, 2006, and 2007). Their obvious BCS vanity is by far the biggest reason why Barry's not coming back, and that's really sad. My admonition for the cognitively-challenged MSU bigwigs is this: the new court's got some nice amenities, but you'll be lucky to keep any new coach around another nine years like you just had with Barry Hinson.

The Hall of Shame

[Team Record Conference (AP ranking, Espn/USA ranking, RPI ranking) Difference between poll average and RPI]

#1 Purdue 24-7 BE (17,16, 37) +20.5

Two weeks ago, Purdue was over-ranked at #16 and #19. Over the past two weeks Purdue beat mediocre Minnesota and awful Northwestern at home. They followed that up by losing on the road to an Ohio State team which is on or around the bubble, before somehow managing to struggle on the road at Michigan before ultimately pulling away. The pollsters managed to reward this series of mediocre performances with an average one spot rise in the polls. To play the broken record, the Big 10 is just not that good this year. Beyond a couple wins against Texas, Big 10 teams had a distinctly undistinguished out of conference record, and Purdue is a classic example. Not only was Purdue defeated by #169 Iowa State on a neutral court, but they also lost AT HOME to #194 Wofford.

#2 Davidson 23-6 Southern (23,25, 41) +17

Davidson falls out of the top spot, but maintains its spot in the Hall of Shame after a week in which it continued to beat up on awful opposition and was rewarded with an average three spot rise in the polls. Lets play blind resumes. Team A has a 26-5 record, which includes a 3-2 record versus the RPI top 50 and a 4-3 record versus the RPI top 100. Additionally, one of Team A’s losses came on the road in double overtime to a ranked team. Team B has a 25-6 record which includes a 0-3 record versus the RPI top 50 and an 0-5 record versus the RPI top 100. Team B played two ranked teams close at home but lost in regular time in both instances. Which team deserves votes in the polls? Which team deserves an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament? Team A naturally, which happens to be South Alabama, which received a total of 53 votes in the two polls this week. Team B is Davidson, which received a total of 241 votes in the two polls this week. Both teams need wins in their conference tourneys to be sure of spots in the dance, but should Davidson lose, they can count on a trip to the NIT, unlike South Alabama, who would still be in with a shout.

Davidson supporters – if you comment here, kindly put those wonderful educations to good use and produce some solid analysis on why I am wrong.

Editorial Note: This was written before last night’s games, which resulted in Davidson winning the Southern Conference tourney, and South Alabama losing in the semifinals of the Sun Belt tourney. Best wishes to Davidson in the quest to validate your ranking with a Sweet Sixteen run. This would, naturally, prove me wrong. Best of luck to South Alabama in your quest for an at-large bid. You represent one of the more interesting bubble cases this year.

#3 Gonzaga 25-6 WCC (20,22, 30) +9

Gonzaga climbs back into third place in this weeks Hall of Shame after two wins against an awful Santa Clara team resulted in a rise in its ranking in both polls. QUE? Gonzaga has one signficiant victory since December 1, on March 1 at home against St. Mary’s. Throughout December, January, and February, Gonzaga developed a shiny record based on wins against patsies while losing to the quality teams it faced. This team is NCAA-worthy but not ranking-worthy, and at some point the afterglow from the Elite 8 run NINE years ago needs to wear off. . .

#4 Butler 28-3 HORZ (12,10, 18) +7

After a couple weeks on the sidelines, Butler re-joins the Hall of Shame after it rose an average of two spots in the poll on the strength of a neutral-court victory over, drum roll please, ILLINOIS CHICAGO! WOW! HOW STUNNING! As in past weeks, the best illustration of Butler’s over-ranking is a direct comparison with Drake. Drake is a team which beat Butler on its home court on February 23rd, but continues to languish well behind (#16, #18 this week) in the rankings. Butler’s best wins came against #49 Ohio State, #57 Virginia Tech, #59 Texas Tech, #62 Southern Illinois, and #64 Florida State, with all of these coming in November and December. Drake’s Best wins came against #18 Butler, #31 Illinois State (X3), #51 Creighton (X2), and #62 Southern Illinois, with the latest of these coming on Sunday. The only category in which Butler can claim the advantage is the arena of bad losses, of which it has none, unlike Drake, which has two (#102 Bradley and #124 Missouri State). All told, Butler is evens at best with Drake. It will be interesting to see how far these two teams progress, if at all, in the tournament.

#5 Stanford 24-6 P10 (11,11, 17) +6

You heard it hear first: “Stanford is not top ten material - at least four teams, Xavier, Wisconsin, Georgetown, and Texas deserve to be ranked higher. This will be established when Stanford loses at UCLA on Thursday, and struggles on the road at USC on Saturday.” Let us remind ourselves of Stanford’s out of conference strength of schedule (#296) which was achieved by playing the following patsies at home: #183 Yale; #188 Santa Clara; #223 Northwestern State; #237 Fresno State; #273 Colorado State; #308 Harvard. They rounded this off with #335 Sacramento State, a 4-24 team whose best win came by one point, at home, against #231 Montana State.

Dropped from rankings:
Mississippi State (now unranked)


The House of Pain

[Team Record Conference (AP ranking, Espn/USA ranking, RPI ranking) Difference between poll average and RPI]

#1 Oklahoma 21-10 B12 (33,NR, 25) –9.5

I did a double take when this one popped up. Oklahoma was left for dead at 3-5 in the conference, and 15-8 overall after an awful loss AT Colorado State on February 9. Since then, they have won six of their last eight, including wins against Baylor, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech, and have made themselves a team worthy of an at-large berth without most people noticing. This is not to say, however, that they are deserving of top 25 spot. . .

#2 Vanderbilt 25-6 SEC (18,17, 10) –7.5

Vanderbilt remains the most consistently disrespected team from the big conferences, although it is difficult to find any fault for their drop in the polls this week given that they lost at ALABAMA to close out their regular season. . .

#3-T Indiana 25-6 B10 (22,20, 16) –5

*GIGGLE* Indiana becomes the first team in the history of this feature to appear in both the Hall of Shame and the House of Pain in the same season. But frankly, this team is clearly not playing to the same level under Dakich as it had under Sampson, and the loss at Penn State on Sunday is a brilliant illustration. At the rate things are going downhill, Indiana may be happy with a second-round exit, as opposed to the Final 4 that was being predicted a few short weeks ago.

#3-T Drake 28-4 MVC (16,18, 12) –5

See above under Butler.

#3-T South Alabama 26-5 Sun Belt (28,30, 24) –5

See above under Davidson.

Dropped from Rankings: Arizona (out of RPI top 25); Pittsburgh (out of RPI top 25)


Average Conference (or State or Category) Bias:

Media Darlings: +11 (Butler, Gonzaga, Davidson)
Teams from Indiana: +6.9 (Butler, Notre Dame Purdue, Indiana,)
Big 10: +4.4 (Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan State, Indiana)
Pac 10: +2.8 (UCLA, Stanford, Washington State)
All Others: +2.4 (Memphis, Xavier, Butler, Drake, Gonzaga, Brigham Young, Davidson, South Alabama)
Big East: +.1 (Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Marquette)
ACC: -2 (North Carolina, Duke, Clemson)
Big 12: -2.8 (Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma)
SEC: -5.25 (Tennessee, Vanderbilt)

After several weeks of constricting biases, things went in the opposite direction this time, for the most part because there are certain teams, like Purdue, which are rarely penalized for losses as they should be, and others, like Vanderbilt, who do not get the benefit of the doubt. The action around Purdue meant that the Hoosier love-fest continued. On other fronts, the ‘Media Darlings’ continued to attract suitors. . .


Teams with closest correlation between ranking and RPI:

1. Memphis +.5
2-T. North Carolina, Connecticut, Washington State (+1, +1, -1)
5. Marquette (-1.5)


Teams included in analysis:

[Any team in the top 25 of the AP Poll, the Coaches Poll, or the RPI.]

North Carolina 29-2 ACC; Memphis 30-1 CUSA; UCLA 28-3 P10; Tennessee 28-3 SEC; Kansas 28-3 B12; Texas 26-5 B12; Wisconsin 26-4 B10; Duke 26-4 ACC; Georgetown 25-4 BE; Xavier 26-5 A10; Butler 28-3 HORZ; Stanford 24-6 P10; Louisville 24-7 BE; Notre Dame 24-6 BE; Connecticut 24-7 BE; Purdue 24-7 BE; Drake 28-4 MVC; Vanderbilt 25-6 SEC; Michigan State 24-7 B10; Gonzaga 25-6 WCC; Indiana 25-6 B10; Washington State P10; Brigham Young 25-6 MWC; Davidson 25-6 Southern; Marquette 22-8 BE; Clemson 22-8 ACC; South Alabama 26-5 Sun Belt; Oklahoma 21-10 B12.

Completely Irrelevant RPI Data (To the Pollsters) 3-04-08

So, who does better in determining the strength of teams? Sports writers? The secretaries for college basketball coaches? The RPI? Completely Irrelevant RPI Data is here to help you decide. And as always, do not miss Goro’s Rants.


The Hall of Shame

[Team Record Conference (AP ranking, Espn/USA ranking, RPI ranking) Difference between poll average and RPI]

#1 Davidson 23-6 Southern (25,28, 44) +17.5

Davidson vaults into first place in this weeks’ Hall of Shame out of nowhere. Nowhere is the operative word, as this is a team which should be nowhere close to the top 25. While Davidson has won 19 straight games, there are dozens of teams who would win THOSE 19 straight games. Davidson’s BEST win this year was at #116 Georgia Southern, and Davidson boasts a perfectly awful 0-5 record versus the RPI top 100. The foolishness of this ranking is perhaps best illustrated by comparison with South Alabama, another team from outside the top conferences which has finished well (23-2). Not only does South Alabama have one less loss, they also have a 3-2 record versus the RPI top 50, with its wins including a home tilt against Mississippi State and a win AT Western Kentucky. Somehow, however, Davidson managed 101 votes in the two polls this week compared to South Alabama’s 30.

#2 Purdue 23-6 B10 (15,15, 28) +13

Purdue maintains its #2 spot in the Hall of Shame after the pollsters rewarded its wins against a pedestrian Minnesota team, and an awful Northwestern team with an average 2.5 spot RISE in the polls. I have said it before, and I will say it again. The Big 10 just is not that good this year. Beyond a couple wins against Texas, Big 10 teams had a distinctly undistinguished out of conference record, and Purdue is a classic example. Not only was Purdue defeated by #154 Iowa State on a neutral court, but they also lost AT HOME to #201 Wofford.

#3 Mississippi State 20-8 SEC (27,25, 37) +11

Everyone knows that the top team in the SEC West deserves a ranking. Well, no. But that is the only sort of logic that could yield votes for a team which may be NCAA-worthy, but certainly is not ranking-worthy. Mississippi State has gone 2-7 versus the RPI top 50, and, like most teams in the Hall of Shame, served up the patsies in out of conference play. These included #187 Murray State, #216 Southeastern Louisiana, #217 Tennessee Martin, #277 Texas A&M Corpus Christi, #306 Loyola Marymount, and #329 Louisiana Tech, which boasts a 4-23 record this year.

#4 Stanford 24-4 P10 (7,7, 17) +10

Stanford slips from the fourth to the first spot in this weeks’ Hall of Shame after a good home win against Washington State improved its RPI more than its ranking. But Stanford is not top ten material - at least four teams, Xavier, Wisconsin, Georgetown, and Texas deserve to be ranked higher. This will be established when Stanford loses at UCLA on Thursday, and struggles on the road at USC on Saturday. Note, as well, the patsies which Stanford served up for home consumption, yielding them the #299 Strength of Schedule out of 341 teams: #193 Yale; #189 Santa Clara; #224 Northwestern State; #225 Fresno State; #267 Colorado State; #307 Harvard. They rounded this off with #335 Sacramento State, a 4-24 team whose best win came by one point, at home, against #227 Montana State.

#5 Gonzaga 23-6 WCC (22,23, 31) +8.5

Gonzaga slipped a couple spots, but retains its spot in this weeks Hall of Shame after it solidified its spot in the rankings by defeating St. Mary’s at home. This is Gonzaga’s first significant victory since, let me check, need to do some more checking, oh that’s right, I have to go way back to December 1. Since then, it has been developing a shiny record based on wins against patsies while losing to the quality teams it faced. This team is NCAA-worthy but not ranking-worthy, and at some point the afterglow from the Elite 8 run NINE years ago needs to wear off. . .

Dropped from rankings:
Indiana –1.5; St. Mary’s (now unranked)


The House of Pain

[Team Record Conference (AP ranking, Espn/USA ranking, RPI ranking) Difference between poll average and RPI]

#1 Arizona 17-10 P10 (NR,NR, 25) –14.5

Arizona retains its top spot in the House of Pain, but certainly did not deserve any votes in the polls either this week after two home losses. Given Arizona’s 5-7 record versus the RPI top 50, this will be a VERY interesting case for the selection committee. If Arizona does not pick up road wins this week and bring its record up to .500 in the Pac 10, Arizona could very well be NIT bound.

As an editorial comment, it is interesting that while the Hall of Shame continues to be full of extremely over-rated teams, the candidates for the House of Shame continue to get weaker each week.

#2-T Vanderbilt 24-5 SEC (16,16, 10) –6

Wins against #1 teams like Tennessee are typically rewarded. Even if they are followed up with tough losses on the road against tough opponents like Arkansas. That is, unless you are Vanderbilt. Is this revenge from the pollsters for the principled decision by Vanderbilt to dissolve its athletics department and ensure that it does, in fact, field STUDENT-athletes? Apparently no school without an Athletic Director deserves to be in the top 15. . .

#2-T Clemson 21-7 ACC (24,26, 19) –6

As predicted, Clemson did, indeed climb into the rankings after defeating Miami. The fact that they followed this up by defeating Maryland on the road means that they SHOULD have climbed much further than they did.

#4 Drake 25-4 MVC (20,21, 15) –5.5

Drake finished the regular season 3-3, which certainly qualifies as a slump after starting 22-1. We cannot, however, lose sight of the fact that Drake possesses a spectacular 6-2 record versus the top 50, which is equaled or surpassed by only ten other teams. When one considers that they recently knocked off Butler (#14,#12) on the road, a team with a mere 2-1 record versus the top 50, it is clear that Drake is under-rated.

#5 Pittsburgh 21-9 BE (29,29, 24) –5

Pittsburgh becomes the weakest ever resident of the Hall of Shame. Frankly they are not hard done by being left out of the top 25 after losing 4 of their last 6 and 7 of their last 13.

Dropped from Rankings: South Alabama (out of RPI top 25)


Average Conference (or State or Category) Bias:

Media Darlings: +11 (Butler, Gonzaga, Davidson)
Teams from Indiana: +5.1 (Butler, Purdue, Indiana, Notre Dame)
All Others: +3.1 (Memphis, Xavier, Butler, Drake, Gonzaga, Brigham Young, Davidson)
Big 10: +1.3 (Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan State, Indiana)
SEC: +.7 (Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State)
Pac 10: -.1 (UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Arizona)
Big 12: -.3 (Kansas, Texas)
Big East: -1.7 (Georgetown, Louisville, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Marquette, Pittsburgh)
ACC: -1.8 (North Carolina, Duke, Clemson)

The trend in the big conferences is once again towards less significant biases. The Big 10 nearly fell into line this week, with only Purdue now amongst the substantially over-rated. The Hoosier love-fest still continues, although is has been slightly muted by the decline of Indiana (the team). With Davidson joining the rankings this week, a new small conference ‘Media Darlings’ category is now warranted.


Teams with closest correlation between ranking and RPI:

1-T. Memphis, Connecticut, Washington State (-.5 )
4-T. Duke, Louisville, Indiana (-1.5)


Teams included in analysis:

[Any team in the top 25 of the AP Poll, the Coaches Poll, or the RPI.]

North Carolina 27-2; ACC Memphis 28-1 CUSA; UCLA 26-3 P10; Tennessee 26-3 SEC; Kansas 26-3 B12; Duke 25-3 ACC; Stanford 24-4 P10; Wisconsin 24-4 B10; Texas 24-5 B12; Xavier 25-4 A10; Georgetown 24-4 BE; Louisville 24-6 BE; Butler 27-3 HORZ; Connecticut 23-6 BE; Purdue 23-6 B10; Vanderbilt 24-5 SEC; Michigan State 23-6 B10; Indiana 24-5 B10; Notre Dame 22-6 BE; Drake 25-4 MVC; Marquette 21-7 BE; Gonzaga 23-6 WCC; Washington State 22-7 P10; Clemson 21-7 ACC; Brigham Young 23-6 MWC; Mississippi State 20-8 SEC; Davidson 23-6 Southern; Pittsburgh 21-9 BE; Arizona 17-12 P10.

Completely Irrelevant RPI Data (To the Pollsters) 2-26-08

So, who does better in determining the strength of teams? Sports writers? The secretaries for college basketball coaches? The RPI? Completely Irrelevant RPI Data is here to help you decide. And as always, do not miss Goro’s Rants.


The Hall of Shame

[Team Record Conference (AP ranking, Espn/USA ranking, RPI ranking) Difference between poll average and RPI]

#1 Stanford 22-4 P10 (8,8, 21) +13

After several weeks stuck at the #3 spot, Stanford vaults into the top spot in this weeks’ Hall of Shame after its pedestrian home win against a pedestrian California team was rewarded with a CLIMB in the rankings. 4-1 versus the top 50 and 10-4 versus the top 100 looks good, until one considers the patsies which Stanford lined up for home consumption, yielding them the #284 Strength of Schedule out of 341 teams: #179 Yale; #182 Santa Clara; #199 Northwestern State; #220 Fresno State; #258 Colorado State; #309 Harvard. They rounded this off with #335 Sacramento State, a 4-22 team whose best win came by one point, at home, against #196 Montana State. Sorry Stanford, you are not top 10 material, and could very well go 2-2 or even 1-3 in the run up to the Pac 10 tournament.

#2 Purdue 21-6 B10 (16,19, 30) +12.5

Purdue maintains its #2 spot in the Hall of Shame this week after managing to keep its spot in the top 20 after losing on the road to an excellent Indiana team which was, however, in a tad bit of turmoil. I have said it before, and I will say it again. The Big 10 just is not that good this year. Beyond a couple wins against Texas, Big 10 teams had a distinctly undistinguished out of conference record, and Purdue is a classic example. Not only was Purdue defeated by #138 Iowa State on a neutral court, but they also lost AT HOME to #185 Wofford.

#3 Gonzaga 21-6 WCC (24,27, 33) +7.5

So where has Gonzaga been all season? Losing to all of the significant opposition it has faced since December 1, while racking up the victories versus the creampuffs. Apparently four straight wins against opposition with an average RPI of 213 was deemed sufficient to gain Gonzaga a ranking. QUE!?!? At some point the afterglow from the Elite 8 run NINE years ago needs to wear off. . .

#4-T Indiana 23-4 B10 (12,12, 19) +7

A good home against Purdue improved Indiana’s RPI more than its ranking this week, so Indiana is now in danger of falling out of the Hall of Shame entirely. We will have to see whether they are deserving. Tonight’s game against Ohio State and the tilt with Michigan State on Saturday will tell the tale. Can a Sampson-less Indiana take out top opposition?

#4-T Saint Mary’s 23-4 WCC (25,23, 31) +7

St. Mary’s joins the Hall of Shame this week after a HOME loss to Kent State was not rewarded as it should have been – by St. Mary’s dropping out of the rankings. Since knocking out Drake (at home) in the second game of the season, St. Mary’s has twice faced good opposition (at home). The results have been a squeaker of an overtime win against Gonzaga, and the loss to Kent State. St. Mary’s is not top 25 material.

Dropped from rankings:
Texas A&M (now unranked); Butler +4.5


The House of Pain

[Team Record Conference (AP ranking, Espn/USA ranking, RPI ranking) Difference between poll average and RPI]

#1 Arizona 17-10 P10 (33,31, 16) -16

Despite maintaining its position at the top of the House of Pain, Arizona once again did itself no favors this week by losing on the road at Washington (RPI #120). They then followed this up by win on the road at RANKED Washington State. QUE!?!? ESPN has ‘Judgment Week’ correct in this case. Wins against USC and UCLA would deservedly vault Arizona into the rankings. Losses could leave Arizona as the highest RPI team to be left out of the tournament.

#2 Drake 24-3 MVC (20,20, 11) –9

Like Arizona, Drake had a yo-yo of a week. They lost by a point at home to a solid but unspectacular Bradley team, and followed that up with a successful commando raid on Hinkle Fieldhouse. While Drake deserves to be somewhere in the top 20, it is unclear WHERE in the top 20 they should be. They should NOT, however, be 6.5 slots behind Butler, a team with an identical number of losses and three FEWER quality wins. Especially when you just beat them on their home court.

#3 South Alabama 23-5 Sun Belt (31,33, 24) –8

Welcome, South Alabama, to the ranks of one of the top teams in the country outside the BCS leagues. Expect to be under-appreciated. Expect to be under-ranked. Expect to be under-seeded. Expect to have what is looking to be a 25+ win season ignored. That is, until you surprise someone with a Sweet Sixteen run. Snap to it!

#4-T Vanderbilt 23-4 SEC (18,14, 10) –6

The coaches (I mean their secretaries) have nearly got Vanderbilt right. The AP pollsters are still lagging behind. With three tough games coming up, we will see who is correct about this exceptional but under-appreciated team, who are still recovering, in the perceptions game, from a mid-season slump.

#4-T Clemson 19-7 ACC (28,30, 23) –6

Despite an away loss this past week to Florida State this past week, Clemson dropped only from a total of 43 to a total of 35 votes in the two polls combined this week. The #3 and #4 RPI teams in the ACC, Miami and Clemson, are both good. The winner of tomorrow’s matchup should find themselves ranked come next Monday.

Dropped from Rankings: Dayton (out of RPI top 25); Marquette -4


Average Conference (or State) Bias:

WCC: +7.3 (St. Mary’s, Gonzaga)
Teams from Indiana: +6.8 (Indiana, Butler, Notre Dame, Purdue)
Big 10: +5.3 (Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue)
Big 12: +.8 (Texas, Kansas)
Pac 10: +.5 (UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Arizona)
Big East: -1.3 (Georgetown, Louisville, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Marquette)
All Others: -1.9 (Memphis, Xavier, Butler, Drake, Kent State, Brigham Young, South Alabama)
ACC: -3 (North Carolina, Duke, Miami, Clemson)
SEC: -3 (Tennessee, Vanderbilt)

The trend, once again, is towards less significant biases. The Big 12 essentially fell into line since the pollsters finally, and belatedly, realized that Kansas State and Texas A&M are not top 25 material. The Big 10 remains over-rated, and the Hoosier love-fest continues. With an over-rated Gonzaga joining an over-rated St. Mary’s in the rankings, the West Coast Conference now joins in the action as well.


Teams with closest correlation between ranking and RPI:

1-T. Tennessee, Texas, Washington State (+/-0)
4-T. Memphis, North Carolina, Brigham Young (-.5; +.5, -.5)


Teams included in analysis:

[Any team in the top 25 of the AP Poll, the Coaches Poll, or the RPI.]

Tennessee 25-2 SEC; Memphis 26-1 CUSA; North Carolina 26-2 ACC; UCLA 24-3 P10; Texas 23-4 B12; Kansas 24-3 B12; Duke 23-3 ACC; Stanford 22-4 P10; Wisconsin 23-4 B10; Xavier 24-4 A10; Georgetown 22-4 BE; Indiana 23-4 B10; Butler 25-3 HORZ; Louisville 22-6 BE; Connecticut 21-6 BE; Vanderbilt 23-4 SEC; Michigan State 22-5 B10; Notre Dame 21-5 BE; Purdue 21-6 B10; Drake 24-3 MVC; Marquette 20-6 BE; Washington State 21-6 P10; Kent State 23-5 MAC; Saint Mary’s 23-4 WCC; Gonzaga 21-6 WCC; Brigham Young 21-6 MWC; Miami 19-7 ACC; Clemson 19-7 ACC; South Alabama 23-5 Sun Belt; Arizona 17-10 P10

Completely Irrelevant RPI Data (To the Pollsters) 2-19-08

So, who does better in determining the strength of teams? Sports writers? The secretaries for college basketball coaches? The RPI? Completely Irrelevant RPI Data is here to help you decide.


The Hall of Shame

[Team Record Conference (AP ranking, Espn/USA ranking, RPI ranking) Difference between poll average and RPI]

#1 Texas A&M 20-5 B12 (22,22, 39) +17

The already overrated Aggies vault into the #1 spot in this weeks’ Hall of Shame after an inexcusable HOME loss to an unexceptional Oklahoma State team was only penalized by a six spot drop in the polls. The only thing keeping them in the polls would seem to be what should be a long-forgotten home win against Texas. The Aggies Strength of Schedule stands at #207, and their OOC schedule included home wins against the following powerhouse teams: #224 McNeese State; #261 Florida A&M; #269 Texas State; #270 Rice; #286 Detroit; #292 Arkansas Pine Bluff; Non-DI Ouchita Baptist.

#2 Purdue 21-5 B10 (14,15, 28) +13.5

Purdue drops to a distant second in this weeks’ Hall of Shame. To a certain extent the win against Michigan State illustrates that they are growing into their ranking, but I will say it again. 12-1 in the Big 10 this year is not saying a lot. This is best illustrated by the fact that Purdue lost to #124 Iowa State on a neutral court, and lost AT HOME to #167 Wofford. Furthermore, Purdue’s Strength of Schedule stands at #236, and they lined up 6 RPI 232+ patsies at home.

#3 Stanford 21-4 P10 (9,9, 20) +11

Stanford squeaked out a one-point win on the road this week, at Arizona. But this is the bottom line. Top 10 teams WIN their games on the road against unexceptional opposition like Arizona State. A Strength of Schedule of #283, and OOC home wins against 8 RPI 203+ opponents could be forgiven. For a team ranked 16+.

#4 Butler 24-2 Horz (8,8, 18) +10

After a week on the sidelines, Butler re-joins the Hall of Shame after seeing their ranking rise again on the strength of defeating two teams that ANY team in the top 25 should have no problems with. Their over-ranking is best illustrated by comparison with fellow ‘mid-major’ Drake, which has an identical record but is ranked at an average of #17 this week. Both teams have six top 100 wins, in very similar ranges (Butler 47,55,67,72,84,87; Drake 53,53,55,70,70,86). The only significant differences in their resumes comes in Strength of Schedule, in which Drake is far superior at #85 as opposed to #161. The idiocy of the pollsters is however, best illustrated by the fact that Drakes two losses came against teams that are at #27 and #55 in the RPI while Butler’s two losses came against teams #64 and #84 in the RPI. In any case, we will get to see which is the better team when they play on Saturday.

#5 Indiana 21-4 B10 (15,14, 23) +8.5

With their RPI improving as a result of splitting two home games against tough opponents, and their poll rankings degrading as a result of splitting two home games against tough opponents (which, of course, makes complete sense) Indiana (the team) barely remains in this weeks Hall of Shame, although the Indiana (the state) bias is still very much in evidence. Frankly, however, I am now nearly comfortable with Indiana’s ranking.

Dropped from Rankings: Kansas State +5.5


The House of Pain

[Team Record Conference (AP ranking, Espn/USA ranking, RPI ranking) Difference between poll average and RPI]

#1 Arizona 15-9 P10 (30,33, 17) –14.5

In a week when they once again did itself no favors, this time by losing at home against Stanford, Arizona ‘improves’ to take the top spot in the House of Pain. Shockingly enough, Arizona is now in danger of finding itself on the bubble come selection Sunday, as their record now stands at 6-6 in the Pac 10. They really need to win 4 of their last 6 regular season games to be comfortable, despite the lofty RPI and the #1 Strength of Schedule in the country.

#2 Dayton 17-7 A10 (NR,NR, 24) -13

To tell you the truth, I am a bit sick of talking about a Dayton team which does not belong anywhere near the top 25 after dropping six of their last nine games. Winning 4 of their last five MIGHT still get Dayton into the tournament, but it is more likely that they will be the highest RPI team to be deservedly left out of the NCAA tournament.

#3-T Marquette 18-6 BE (25,24, 16) –8.5

After a week in which Marquette demolished a decent Seton Hall team, and soundly defeated an excellent Pittsburgh team, it is unclear why a team with a robust Strength of Schedule (#12) and fewer patsies on their schedule than normal is not sniffing the top 20.

#3-T Clemson 19-6 ACC (28,31, 21) –8.5

I argued last week that Clemson did not quite deserve a ranking. This week, I would have put them in my top 25. They are 4-1 during February, with the only loss coming in Double Overtime AT North Carolina. The pollsters are taking notice as well. Clemson went from 7 votes to 43 votes combined over the past week.

#5-T Drake 23-2 MVC (16,18, 9) –8 [See above under Butler]

#5-T Vanderbilt 22-4 SEC (20,16, 10) –8

Slowly and surely, but belatedly, the Pollsters are beginning to realize that Vanderbilt is one of the top teams in the country. The crazy thing is that it took Vanderbilt handing Kentucky its worse ever loss (93-52) in SEC play to get them to take notice. After going 5-0 in February it is clear that Vandy’s mid-season slump was just a mid-season slump.

Dropped from rankings: Mississippi (out of RPI top 25)


Average Conference (or State) bias:

Teams from Indiana: +9 (Butler, Purdue, Indiana, Notre Dame)
Big 12: +5.5 (Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State)
Big 10: +5.1 (Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State)
All Others: +2.1 (Memphis, Butler, Drake, Saint Mary’s)
Pac 10: +.4 (UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Arizona)
ACC: -3 (North Carolina, Duke, Clemson)
Big East: -3.7 (Georgetown, Connecticut, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Pittsburgh)
SEC: -4.5 (Tennessee, Vanderbilt)
Atlantic 10: -6.5 (Xavier, Dayton)

The overall biases are slowly restricting as the end of the season approaches, although the overall pattern remains: the Atlantic 10 is still not being taken seriously, and the pollsters continue to serve up Hoosier love.


Teams with the closest correlation between ranking and RPI:

1. Xavier (+/-0)
2. Kansas (+.5)
3-T. Memphis, Tennessee, North Carolina, UCLA, Texas, Connecticut (+1; -1; +1; +1; -1; -1)


Teams included in analysis:

[Any team in the top 25 of the AP Poll, the Coaches Poll, or the RPI.]

Memphis 25-0 CUSA; Tennessee 23-2 SEC; North Carolina 24-2 ACC; Kansas 24-2 B12;
Duke 22-2 ACC; UCLA 22-3 P10; Texas 21-4 B12; Butler 24-2 Horz; Stanford 21-4 P10;
Wisconsin 21-4 B10; Xavier 21-4 A10; Georgetown 20-4 BE; Connecticut 20-5 BE; Purdue 21-5 B10; Indiana 21-4 B10; Drake 23-2 MVC; Vanderbilt 22-4 SEC; Washington State 20-5 P10; Michigan State 20-5 B10; Louisville 20-6 BE; Notre Dame 19-5 BE; Saint Mary’s 22-3 WCC; Texas A&M 20-5 B12; Kansas State 18-6 B12; Marquette 18-6 BE; Pittsburgh 19-6 BE; Clemson 19-6 ACC; Arizona 15-9 P10; Dayton 17-7 A10.

Completely Irrelevant RPI Data (To the Pollsters) 2-12-08

So, who does better in determining the strength of teams? Sports writers? The secretaries for college basketball coaches? The RPI? Completely Irrelevant RPI Data is here to help you decide. For further poll-bashing, do not miss Goro's rants on Salukitalk.


The Hall of Shame

[Team Record Conference (AP ranking, Espn/USA ranking, RPI ranking) Difference between poll average and RPI]

#1 Purdue 19-5 B10 (19,23, 40) +19

Purdue ‘improves’ one spot to head up this weeks’ Hall of Shame. Granted, Purdue did pick up a quality win this week, on the road at Wisconsin, but Purdue also has a couple awful losses, against #124 Iowa State on a neutral court, and AT HOME versus #165 Wofford. A 10-1 record in the B10 is, to be frank, not too telling this year, and it should be noted as well that Purdue lined up 6 RPI 235+ patsies for home consumption, which is one of the primary reasons that Purdue’s Strength of Schedule stands at 254.

#2 Indiana 20-3 B10 (13,12, 29) +16.5

The Indiana (the state) bias continues this week, with Indiana (the team) holding its #2 position in the Hall of Shame. Indiana did pick up a quality win this week, against Ohio State, but that gives them a grand total of two victories against the RPI top 50. When one looks past the 9-1 record in a Big 10 that is weak this year, to the 5 home victories against RPI 224+ teams, it is clear that Indiana does not belong in the top 15.

#3-T Stanford 20-3 P10 (7,7, 19) +12

Stanford undeservedly climbed a couple spots in the polls this week on the basis of one good, and one entirely expected home win, and they also climb into a third-place tie in this weeks’ Hall of Shame. Should Stanford really be a top 10 team? When their best win came against Arizona at home? When eight of their wins came against RPI 203+ teams, with seven of those wins coming at home? When their Strength of Schedule is #273 of 341 teams? Stanford will, unlike last year, be in the tournament deservedly. They do not, however, deserve a top 10 ranking.

#3-T Texas A&M 20-4 B12 (16,16, 28) +12

After a dishonorable mention last week, Texas A&M joins the rankings this week on the ‘strength’ of two solid, but unspectacular wins this week against average opposition. The win against Texas on January 30 probably makes A&M ranking-worthy. But a ranking within the top 20? When the OOC schedule included 7 RPI 200+ patsies at home and non-DI powerhouse Ouchita Baptist? When a teams Strength of Schedule is #222? Try again. . .

#3-T Kansas State 17-5 B12 (18,22, 32) +12

Like Texas A&M, Kansas State picked up two solid but unspectacular wins against average opposition this week. Like Texas A&M, Kansas State has picked up one excellent win, against Kansas on January 30, but followed that up with a loss against a mediocre Missouri team. Like Texas A&M, and all the other teams in the Hall of Shame, Kansas State lined up the patsies: their fare included #258 Savannah State, #264 Western Illinois, #268 Florida A&M, #326 Winston-Salem State, #331 Sacramento State, and non-DI Pittsburgh State.

Dropped from Rankings: Florida (now unranked); Notre Dame +8; Butler +8.5


The House of Pain

[Team Record Conference (AP ranking, Espn/USA ranking, RPI ranking) Difference between poll average and RPI]

#1 Dayton 16-6 A10 (NR,NR, 16) –24.5

Dayton maintains its top spot in the House of Pain, and the way that their season is progressing, may very well become the team with the highest RPI which is DESERVEDLY left out of the tournament (unlike say Missouri State, which has been repeatedly ****ed for no good reason). This is especially true after the loss at #227 George Washington on Saturday, leaving them with road/neutral record of 4-5. Excellent early season wins against Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Rhode Island are now a distant memory. Just how low can it go for Dayton?

#2 Arizona 15-8 P10 (31,34, 14) –18.5

A home loss to an average Arizona State team naturally did Arizona no favors with the pollsters this week. But it is criminal that a team with four quality wins (three more than #13 Indiana) and the #1 Strength of Schedule in the country is not even close to sniffing the top 25.

#3 Mississippi 16-5 SEC (35,36, 21) –14.5

Mississippi is another team which started out great guns this season, picking up four quality wins in the process, and have since run into some serious difficulties, including losing on the road to an Auburn team for whom ‘mediocre’ would be a compliment. This weak, they picked up another ‘good loss’, on the road at Arkansas. Running the table from here would, however, be a strong possibility, and it is more than likely than Mississippi will not only rightfully regain a ranking, but will dance with a reasonably high seed as well.

#4-T Vanderbilt 20-4 SEC (24,19, 11) –10.5

Vanderbilt stopped the rot this week by picking up two road wins, and actually managed to drop one spot, to #24, in the AP poll, and maintain its spot in the House of Pain. QUE!? This is a team with two wins versus teams in the top 50 of the RPI, and no losses to any team lower than #87. Their midseason slump increasingly appears to be just that. A midseason slump. Time for the pollsters to give them some love.

#4-T Clemson 16-6 ACC (33,38, 25) –10.5

Clemson were edged on the road, in double overtime, by North Carolina on Sunday. They were rewarded with a grand total of seven votes in the two polls combined. Clemson does not deserve a ranking. But lets compare them with a Florida team which nearly got there. Top 50 Wins: Clemson 2, Florida 1; Top 100 Wins: Clemson 7, Florida 5; Number of wins versus RPI 150+: Clemson 6, Florida 12; Strength of Schedule: Clemson 141, Florida 303; Number of recent National Championships: Clemson 0, Florida 2; Number of votes in the polls: Clemson 7, Florida 47.

Dropped from rankings: Massachusetts (out of RPI top 25); Drake –8.5


Average Conference (or State) Bias

Teams from Indiana: +13 (Butler, Indiana, Notre Dame, Purdue)
Big 10: +11.1 (Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin, Purdue)
Big 12: +6 (Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State)
All Others: +.5 (Memphis, Butler, Drake, St. Mary’s)
Pac 10: -.8 (UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Arizona)
Big East: -1.5 (Georgetown, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette)
ACC: -4.2 (Duke, North Carolina, Clemson)
SEC: -9.3 (Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi)
Atlantic 10: -10 (Xavier, Rhode Island, Dayton)

The Big 10 and the Atlantic 10 remain the outliers, although it should be noted that the pollsters are also engaging in a Hoosiers love fest. THE MOVIE WAS OVER 20 YEARS AGO FOLKS!


Teams with closest correlation between ranking and RPI:

1-T. Duke, Georgetown (+/-0)
3. Xavier (-.5)
4-T. UCLA, St. Mary’s (+1; -1)


Teams included in analysis:

[Any team in the top 25 of the AP Poll, the Coaches Poll, or the RPI.]

Memphis 23-0 CUSA; Duke 21-1 ACC; Kansas 23-1 B12; Tennessee 21-2 SEC; North Carolina 22-2 ACC; UCLA 21-3 P10; Stanford 20-3 P10; Georgetown 19-3 BE; Butler 21-2 Horz; Michigan State 20-3; B10 Texas 19-4 B12; Xavier 20-4 A10; Indiana 20-3 B10; Drake 22-1 MVC; Wisconsin 19-4 B10; Texas A&M 20-4 B12; Connecticut 18-5 BE; Notre Dame 18-4 BE; Kansas State 17-5 B12; Washington State 18-5 P10; Purdue 19-5 B10; Vanderbilt 20-4 SEC; St. Mary’s 20-3 WCC; Pittsburgh 18-5 BE; Louisville 18-6 BE; Marquette 16-6 BE; Rhode Island 20-4 A10; Arizona 15-8 P10; Clemson 16-6 ACC; Mississippi 16-5 SEC; Dayton 16-6 A10

Completely Irrelevant RPI Data (To the Pollsters) 2-5-08

The turmoil in my personal life is slowly resolving itself, and the opening of semester rush is behind me, so it is time to revive my blogging. Today I introduce what will be a weekly feature until Selection Sunday, which will expose both underachieving but highly reputed teams, and the follies of the pollsters. Now that the mid-point of the conference schedules has been reached, the much-maligned RPI serves as an excellent tool to achieve this end. In some cases.


The Hall of Shame

[Team Record Conference (AP ranking, Espn/USA ranking, RPI ranking) Difference between poll average and RPI]

#1 Florida 18-4 SEC (26,22, 49) +25

Florida, with an average ranking 25 places higher than its RPI, heads up this weeks’ Hall of Shame. Florida has only one win against a team higher than 69 in the RPI – last Sunday against a ranked Vanderbilt team. But does that make them deserving of a ranking themselves? The strength of Florida’s out of conference schedule was #300 out of 341 teams in DI, and included home wins against such powerhouses as Jacksonville, Vermont, North Dakota State, High Point, Florida A&M, Stetson, North Carolina Central, Tennessee Tech, Charleston Southern, and 1-21 North Florida, which has a grand total of 0 wins this year against DI opposition. Sorry, two recent national titles should not gain a team any preference in the polls when there has been a lack of achievement THIS year.

#2-T Indiana B10 18-3 (14,13, 38) +24.5

There is a strong Midwest bias in the polls this year, of which Indiana is the preeminent example. Indiana has a grand total of one win against RPI top 50 opposition - #48 Illinois State. Its only other ‘Quality Wins’ came against #77 Georgia Tech, #82 Southern Illinois, and #90 Minnesota. 5 of their wins were versus RPI 200+ teams at home. Sure, Indiana has a 7-1 conference record this year, but the Big 10 is the weakest of the so-called Power Conferences, this year.

#2-T Purdue 17-5 B10 (24,27, 50) +24.5

Purdue, another Big 10 team, ties Indiana this week in the Hall of Shame. To be fair, Purdue has picked up two top-25 wins, versus Louisville and Wisconsin, but these must be balanced against a loss to #102 Iowa State, and a HOME loss to #152 Wofford. Purdue also lined up 6 200+ RPI patsies for home consumption, and has no business sniffing the top 25.

#4 Notre Dame 16-4 BE (22,21, 40) +18.5

Another conference. Another over-rated Midwest team. While Notre Dame has picked up wins against ranked Connecticut and Kansas State teams, in addition to a West Virginia team which is no slouch, these all came on home or neutral courts. Their two road games against top opposition have resulted in slaughters: 84-65 versus Georgetown and 92-66 versus UNRANKED Marquette. A top 25 ranking makes no sense.

#5 Butler 19-2 HOR (10,11, 24) +13.5

Butler is one of several teams from outside the so-called Power Conferences who deserve a ranking. But a top 10 ranking? Hardly. Their only significant win came against a good, but rightfully unranked Ohio State team. Their two losses came against teams from outside the top 50 in the RPI. The press always rallies behind an over-rated darling. With Gonzaga under-achieving this year, it looks like Butler is it.

Dishonorable Mention: Texas A&M 18-4 B12 (18,18, 29) +11


The House of Pain

[Team Record Conference (AP ranking, Espn/USA ranking, RPI ranking) Difference between poll average and RPI]

#1 Dayton 15-5 A10 (NR,40, 13) –29.5

What does an RPI of 13 get Dayton? A grand total of 3 votes in the two polls. Combined. While they have struggled recently, their only troubling loss was on the road at Richmond. Balancing that are wins against a ranked Pittsburgh team, a Rhode Island team that SHOULD be ranked, and a Louisville team that WILL be ranked should they knock off Georgetown on Saturday. Bottom line. Dayton is far more deserving of a ranking than Notre Dame, Purdue, and Florida.

#2 Arizona 14-7 P10 (31,30, 7) –23.5

Perennially, Arizona plays a ridiculously tough schedule, which this year included only one out of conference team outside the RPI top 200. Perennially, and unfairly, they are overlooked in the polls. Arizona’s scalps this season include ranked Washington State and Texas A&M, along with good teams from UNLV and USC – wins against 4 better teams than #14 Indiana has achieved. While the losses are mounting, none will cause them much trouble come Selection Sunday.

#3 Massachusetts 14-7 A10 (NR,NR, 25) –19.5

Does Massachusetts deserve a ranking? Probably not. Is Massachusetts more deserving of a ranking that some other teams in this weeks poll? Absolutely. They have proven that they can defeat top teams on the road, such as Dayton and Syracuse. Given the shaky conference record and the mounting losses, they will, however, be in significant trouble on Selection Sunday should they not turn things around. Quickly.

#4 Vanderbilt 18-4 SEC (23,20, 12) –9.5

After a stunning 16-0 start, Vanderbilt have dropped four out of their last six, and their ranking has reflected that downward spiral. To be frank, the pollsters have got things just about right. The 16-0 run included 5 200+ RPI patsies, but only two top 50 teams, Massachusetts and surprising Sun Belt leader South Alabama. With only three remaining chances to pick up quality wins, Vanderbilt could be left out in the cold come March.

#5 Drake MVC 20-1 (15,15, 8) –7

Like Vanderbit, Drake really does not have much cause to be upset, but as a Valley partisan, I cannot resist including them in the discussion. Here, the pollsters have got things just about right, considering the weakness of their schedule, which included two non DI opponents. While Drake’s only loss came against ranked St. Mary’s, their one ‘quality win’, like Indiana, came against Illinois State. Despite the Valley’s weakness this year, their sweep of Creighton may play in to seeding decisions as well.


Average Conference Bias

Big 10: +13.4 (Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue)
Big 12: +4.1 (Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State)
SEC: +3.8 (Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida, Mississippi)
Big East: +2.5 (Georgetown, Marquette, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh)
All Others: +1.6 (Memphis, Butler, Drake, St. Mary’s)
ACC: +1 (Duke, North Carolina)
Pac 10: –1.5 (UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Arizona)
Atlantic 10: -13.4 (Xavier, Rhode Island, Dayton, Massachusetts)

The performance of the Atlantic 10 has been this years biggest surprise, as they have improved from tenth to seventh in conference RPI. It will take a while for the sports writers and coaches to notice. . .


Teams with the closest correlation between ranking and RPI:

1-T. North Carolina; Georgetown (+/- 0)
3. Kansas (+.5)
4-T. Memphis; Texas; Marquette; St. Mary’s (+1; -1; +1; -1)


Teams included in analysis:

[Any team in the top 25 of the AP poll, the Coaches poll, or the RPI.]

Memphis CUSA; Duke ACC; North Carolina ACC; Kansas B12; UCLA P10; Georgetown BE; Tennessee SEC; Wisconsin B10; Stanford P10; Butler HOR; Michigan State B10; Texas B12; Xavier A10; Indiana B10; Drake 20-1; Marquette BE; Washington State 17-4; Texas A&M B12; Connecticut BE; Notre Dame BE; Vanderbilt SEC; Kansas State B12; Pittsburgh BE; St. Mary’s WCC; Florida SEC; Purdue B10; Rhode Island A10; Mississippi SEC; Arizona P10; Dayton A10; Massachusetts A10