FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions

Bracket

Click here for a printable bracket.

South Dakoka State (8-3, At-Large)
at
#1 Montana (11-0, Big Sky Auto-Bid)

Eastern Washington (8-3, At-Large)
at
Stephen F. Austin (9-2, Southland Auto-Bid)


Elon (9-2, At-Large)
at
#4 Richmond (10-1, At-Large)

South Carolina State (10-1, MEAC Auto-Bid)
at
Appalachian State (9-2, At-Large SOCON Auto-Bid)


Holy Cross (9-2, Patriot Auto-Bid)
at
#2 Villanova (10-1, CAA Auto-Bid)

New Hampshire (9-2, At-Large)
at
McNeese State (9-2, At-Large)


Eastern Illinois (8-3, OVC Auto-Bid)
at
#3 Southern Illinois (10-1, MVFC Auto-Bid)

Weber State (7-4, At-Large)
at
William and Mary (9-2, At-Large)

Prediction success:
At-Large Bids: 8/8 (7/8 last year)
Seeds: 4/4 (3/4 last year)
Home Teams: 8/8 (6/8 last year)
Pairings: 6/8 (1/8 last year)

Criticism

Congratulations to the selection committee for a job well done. Unlike last year, my criticisms are very much of the nit-picking variety.

Seeding

Rather than focusing on schedule strength, or how a team actually won, the committee chose to focus on Montana's gaudy record. In the words of John McCutcheon, the selection chair: "By virtue of Montana's undefeated record, it gave them a slight edge for the top seed." That is one way to go, but, it my opinion, it meant seeding Montana over two superior teams, Villanova and Southern Illinois. Villanova by far had the best combination of strength of schedule and wins in the FCS. No team other than Southern Illinois had any FCS team get any closer than a touchdown.

At-Large Bids

I only bring this up because the selection chat, while mostly devoid of any useful information, gave us this important insight:

There were actually eleven teams under consideration for the final two spots in the field, so it would be difficult to single out any specific school as being the last team out.

What were those eleven teams? I would posit Butler, Central Connecticut State, Colgate, Dayton, Eastern Washington, Florida A&M, Lafayette, Liberty, Northern Iowa, Prairie View A&M, Weber State. This is why I keep those teams "Livin' on a Prayer" under consideration right up through my final updates.

Geographic Fudging?

Unlike last year, that seems to have been absent, with one possible exception. I asked the following question during the selection chat. Naturally, it is a question which was not answered:

I note that the teams that would have probably been #5 and #6 if the field was fully seeded, Appalachian State and William and Mary, have potential second round matchups with the #4 and #3 seeds, Richmond and Southern Illinois respectively. Was this deliberate or happenstance?

In the case of Richmond/Appalachian State this was dictated by the pairing rules. But by those same pairing rules, it would have made more sense to place New Hampshire/McNeese State in the same pod as Southern Illinois, and William and Mary/Weber State in the same pod as Villanova.

But these criticisms are about as minor as they come. Congratulations, again, to the committee.

Predictions

The Jackrabbits run Montana ragged, but the home field advantage sticks.

The Lumberjacks face an air raid, successfully pulled off by Eastern Washington.

The fortunes of the Phoenix turn to ashes, and Richmond begins its defense of the title.

The Bulldogs are not stubborn enough to prevent a victory by Appalachian State, setting up a quarterfinal made-for-TV.

The Crusade somehow fails to convert anyone at Villanova.

The Cowboys are shredded by New Hampshire.

Panthers of any stripe show themselves unable to deal with Southern Illinois this year.

The Wildcats face jet lag, and a team too tough to handle in William and Mary.

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #3: Midweek Update and Predictions
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2009 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2009: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions

FCS Playoffs 2009: Bracket Projection

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #3: Midweek Update and Predictions
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2009 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2009: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions

Holy Cross (9-2; Patriot Auto-Bid)
at
#1 Villanova (10-1; CAA Auto-Bid)

Eastern Washington (8-3; At-Large)
at
William and Mary (9-2; At-Large)


Elon (9-2; At-Large)
at
#4 Richmond (10-1; At-Large)

South Carolina State (10-1; MEAC Auto-Bid)
at
Appalachian State (9-2; SOCON Auto-Bid)


Eastern Illinois (8-3; OVC Auto-Bid)
at
#2 Southern Illinois (10-1; MVFC Auto-Bid)

New Hampshire (9-2; At-Large)
at
McNeese State (8[9]-2[3]; At Large)


South Dakota State (8-3; At-Large)
at
#3 Montana (11-0; Big Sky Auto-Bid)

Weber State (7-4; At-Large)
at
Stephen F. Austin (9-2; Southlands Auto-Bid)


As always, the pairing rules leave a number of things to be desired. In this case, four of the top six teams are in the top part of the bracket, including three of the four CAA teams. So how did I get there?


At-Large Bids

Teams with nine wins or more from the top conferences choose themselves, so there is no question about Elon, New Hampshire, Richmond, and William & Mary. Teams from the top conferences with eight or more wins typically get in as well, so there is no great question about Eastern Washington, McNeese State, or South Dakota State. After this, the picture is about a clear as mud, given the losses today by Lafayette, Liberty, and Northern Iowa. Who has a shot at the final spot? As I see it, it comes down to a 9-2 team with a weak schedule (albeit with 9 DI wins), Colgate, and two 7-4 teams from top conferences, Northern Iowa, and Weber State. Given the committee’s practice of choosing four-loss teams from strong conferences in each of the last two years, I suspect that Northern Iowa or Weber State will get the nod. Of these two teams, Weber State by far has the best victory, over Appalachian State Eastern Washington, and its worst loss, Montana State was not as bad as Northern Iowa’s worst loss, to Illinois State. Weber State gets the last bid.


Seeding

There are five obvious candidates for seeds this year, the auto-bid winners from the top four conferences, Appalachian State, Montana, Southern Illinois, and Villanova, and another team, Richmond, which both had a near-perfect record and a tough schedule. I place Villanova in the #1 spot, since they topped the computer numbers, played an entirely DI schedule, and picked up an FBS win. Southern Illinois is in the #2 slot since no FCS team got closer than a touchdown this year, and they lost only to FBS opponent Marshall by a field goal. Montana is placed in the #3 slot despite their undefeated season, since FCS teams repeatedly ran them close, including 1-10 Idaho State. The committee might be tempted to give SOCON champion the #4 seed, but Richmond has one fewer loss and an FBS win under its belt.


Seeded Pairings

Holy Cross is the closest non-conference matchup for Villanova; a very short trip by plane or a long bus ride.

Eastern Illinois will travel by bus to take on the Salukis in the Illinois championship.

South Dakota State is the closest non-conference matchup for Montana, but the distance is so long that this pairing is very much in doubt.

Elon will have a medium bus trip up I-85 to take on Richmond.


Non-Seeded Pairings

There is only one obvious geographic pairing in this group, Appalachian State and South Carolina State – and Appalachian State will likely take the home game. Beyond this, there are problems, given the vast distances between the remaining six teams. Who will have home games? Based on attendance, McNeese State, Stephen F. Austin, and William and Mary. Who to pair with them? New Hampshire's shortest (permissible) plane flight would be to McNeese State in Louisiana, and Weber State's shortest plane flight would be to Stephen F. Austin in Texas. This unfortunately leaves Eastern Washington to fly cross-country to William and Mary. Any of these pairings could completely go in a different direction!


Finishing the Bracket

Elon/Richmond and SCSU/Appalachian State make for a neat, southeast pod. After that, we are once again left with a mess. Here is the rationale. William & Mary Would have a short trip to a potential second round matchup with Villanova.Weber State and McNeese State would have (shorter) trips to Montana than any other pair of teams. This leaves New Hampshire and McNeese State as the leftover pairing, matched up with Southern Illinois. As always, however, the committee may choose to fudge its rules to produce a better bracket than their rules dictate.


Bids by Conference

CAA: 4
Big Sky: 3
MVFC: 2
SOCON: 2
Southland: 2
MEAC: 1
OVC: 1
Patriot: 1

FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2009 Playoffs

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #3: Midweek Update and Predictions
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2009 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2009: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions

Consequential scores and updates as the afternoon progresses:

1:26 PM

William and Mary 3
Richmond 3
half
A defense dominated snoozer so far.

Update (1) 2:11 PM

Lafayette 7
Lehigh 7
half
Lehigh hanging tough in THE RIVALRY.

UNI 3
Illinois State 13
1:47 2nd
Every bubble team is now a Redturds Redbirds fan.

Liberty 10
Stony Brook 21
4:16 2nd
Flames bubble hopes in jeopardy.

Update (2) 2:24 PM

Drake 3
Butler 3
half
*SNOOZE*

UNI 3
Illinois State 16
half
Ughhh. Sick Panthers.

Liberty 13
Stony Brook 21
half
Flames extinguished?

William and Mary 3
Richmond 10
14:16 4th
WOO HOO! ACTION!

Update (3) 2:27 PM

William and Mary 10
Richmond 10
12:09 4th
Turning into a good one!

Update (4) 2:43 PM

Central Connecticut State 14
St. Francis 13
final
NEC honors to the Blue Devils. Chances of an at-large? Slim to none.

Eastern Kentucky 20
Jacksonville State 21
half
Colonels keep their under-the-radar playoff chances alive.

Update (5) 3:01 PM

William & Mary 10
Richmond 13
final
With the last second field goal, the Spiders will fancy their chances for a seed.

Update (6) 3:16 PM

Southern Illinois 21
SEMO 0
half
Should be seed Salukis!

Update (7) 3:39 PM

UNI 13
Illinois State 16
final
UNI cooks its season, and bubble teams everywhere cheer.

UNI 20
Illinois State 16
final
REDTURDS MELTDOWN!

UNI 20
Illinois State 22
final
PANTHERS MELTDOWN!

Lafayette 21
Lehigh 21
OT

Lafayette 21
Lehigh 26
final/OT

Update (8) 4:05 PM

Drake 17
Butler 20
final
Butler takes Pioneer League honors. With bubble teams dropping left and right, should they be ruled out of an at-large!?!?!?

Liberty 33
Stony Brook 36
final
Does ANY bubble team want to win today?

Update (9) 4:18 PM

Eastern Kentucky 26
Jacksonville State 34
final
Eastern Illinois backs into the OVC auto-bid.

Update (10) 4:28 PM

Stephen F. Austin 10
Northwestern State 10
half
Another team with work to do having problems.

Florida A&M 28
Bethune Cookman 0
half
Only the 'fringe' bubble teams seem to be doing well, with the exception of:

South Dakota State 27
Western Illinois 7
15:00 4th
Go Jackrabbits!

Update (11) 4:52 PM

Southern Illinois 42
SEMO 24
final
Seeded Salukis!

Cal Poly 14
Weber State 47
final
Is Weber State in? I think so!

Western Carolina 7
Appalachian State 3
2nd
Mountaineers need a win to keep seed hopes alive.

Update (12) 4:58 PM

So where is the bubble now, assuming no more upsets?

Last team in: (wins/losses categorized by GPI)
Weber State: 7-4 (Wins: 11, 23, 35, 47, 57, 68, 79; Losses: FBS, FBS, 5, 11)

Last team out:
Northern Iowa: 7-4 (Wins: 32, 33, 34, 54, 84, 105, 115; Losses: FBS, 2, 10, 40)

Update (13) 4:59 PM

South Dakota State 27
Western Illinois 7
final
Grats to the Jackrabbits on what will be their first FCS playoff appearance!

Update (14) 5:09 PM

Montana 33
Montana State 19
final
Montana books a seed, probably #3.

Update (15) 5:40 PM

Arkansas Pine-Bluff 17
Prairie View A&M 49
final
Another of the long-long shots wins.

Update (16) 6:02 PM

Stephen F. Austin 19
Northwestern State 10
final
Stephen F. Austin takes the Southlands auto-bid.

Florida A&M 42
Bethune-Cookman 6
final
Another another long-long shot wins.

Update (17) 6:27 PM

Western Carolina 14
Appalachian State 19
final
The Mountaineers make their case for a seed.

Delaware 12
Villanova 30
final
#1 seed clinched?

There is only one other game which will influence the playoff field, as bubble losses mean that McNeese State does not need to win later today to get in:

Eastern Washington 28
Northern Arizona 10
2:51 2nd

Final Update (18) 8:25

Eastern Washington 49
Northern Arizona 45
final
Given the carnage earlier in the day, the McNeese State game has become irrelevant, so it is time to post a projected bracket.

FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #3: Midweek Update and Predictions

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #3: Midweek Update and Predictions
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2009 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2009: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions

Comments, corrections, and (constructive) criticism are most welcome, but be mindful of the rules of engagement at this blog. Please join me on Saturday while I live-blog the significant results as they come in.

Predictions

Seeds:
1. Villanova
2. Southern Illinois
3. Montana
4. Richmond

Auto-Bids:
Montana (Big Sky)
Villanova (CAA)
South Carolina State (MEAC)
Southern Illinois (MVFC)
Eastern Illinois (OVC)
Holy Cross (Patriot)
Appalachian State (SOCON)
Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

At-Large Bids: (in order of comfort)
Richmond (CAA)
William & Mary (CAA)
Northern Iowa (MVFC)
New Hampshire (CAA)
Elon (SOCON)
South Dakota State (MVFC)
Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
McNeese State (Southland)

Bubble:
Lafayette (Patriot)
Weber State (Big Sky)
Liberty (Big South)


Seeding Discussion

Why is Villanova predicted as #1 seed over two teams, Southern Illinois and Montana, which have so far run the table in their conferences? They have two advantages. The Wildcats picked up an FBS win, and they had nothing but DI teams on their schedule. Southern Illinois would have been the #1 seed had they not lost by three points at FBS Marshall, but they have gone undefeated in the FCS, with only one team, Northern Iowa, getting within a touchdown. Montana might feel hard done by with a #3 seed given their undefeated season so far (which I expect to continue on Saturday – if it does not, they should slip to the #4 spot at best). It should be noted, however, that they both had a soft out of conference schedule, and have been run close by teams that they should have dominated – most notably by 1-10 Idaho State, who they beat on a last second field goal.

The biggest question mark surrounds the #4 seed. Will the committee decide to share the wealth? If they do, then Appalachian State will slot in at #4. If they choose the final slot based on this seasons’ performances, then expect to see a second seeded CAA team – whoever wins when William & Mary visits Richmond. Ironically, should Delaware pull an upset of Villanova, then the winner of the WM Richmond game could end up in the #1 slot. But beyond the five teams discussed, there are no serious contenders for seeds.


The At-Large Picture

Ultimately, there are nine teams who will fancy their chances to take the eight at-large bids:

Elon; Eastern Washington; McNeese State; Montana State; New Hampshire; Northern Iowa; Richmond; South Dakota State; William & Mary

Of these teams, four, Elon, New Hampshire, Richmond, and William & Mary are safe bet for an at-large bid should they lose on Saturday. Three of them, Eastern Washington, Northern Iowa, and South Dakota State are probably safe with a win. McNeese State and Montana State will be sweating even should they win.

The good news for the Cowboys and the Bobcats, and indeed other bubble teams like Lafayette, Weber State, and Liberty, is that there are multiple scenarios which would free up slots:

1. Losses by Eastern Washington, Northern Iowa, or South Dakota State.
2. A loss by Stephen F. Austin, along with a McNeese State win would give an auto-bid, rather than an at-large to the Cowboys. Stephen F. Austin’s numbers are weak enough that they would probably not be an at-large contender.

Who would this allow in? We would have a choice of three teams with imperfect resumes:

Lafayette (8-2; 4-1)
Lafayette can reach 9 DI wins with a victory in THE RIVALRY. Although their computer numbers are soft, the fact that this comes from a team in an auto-qualifying conference means that the committee will be tempted to take them – indeed Patriot League teams have received at-large bids with numbers worse than Lafayette’s would be with a victory on Saturday.

Weber State (6-4; 6-2)
Weber State is still in the conversation since they scheduled tougher than any other FCS team, taking on, and narrowly losing to, two FBS teams. A win on Saturday would leave them at 7-4, and by no means ruled out given that the committee has awarded at-large bids to 4 loss teams in each of the last two years.

Liberty (8-2; 5-0)
Liberty would have been in a much stronger position had they scheduled beatable FCS teams instead of West Virginia and DII West Virginia Wesleyan. The consequence of this is that they have failed to pick up two wins against FCS teams from auto-qualifying conferences, and find themselves with soft computer numbers. An at-large bid might be justice, but justice for the wrong reasons.


Auto-Bids Still Contested

CAA
Villanova takes the auto-bid with a win. The winner of the William & Mary/Richmond game takes the auto-bid with a Villanova loss.

Southland
Stephen F. Austin takes the auto-bid with a win. McNeese State takes the auto-bid with a win and a Stephen F. Austin loss. Should both teams lose, and Texas State wins, there will need to be some serious researching of tie-breaking procedures.


Schedule of Games to Follow Saturday (All Times Eastern)

12:00 PM
William & Mary at Richmond – seeding and potential auto-bid impact

12:30 PM
Lafayette at Lehigh – Lafayette needs the win for a shot at an at-large

1:00 PM
Drake at Butler – Pioneer League honors at stake
Central Connecticut State at St. Francis – NEC honors, and long-shot at-large hopes on the line for CCS
Northern Iowa at Illinois State – Play in, or play out for Northern Iowa
Liberty at Stony Brook – Flames need a win to have a hope of dancing

2:00 PM
Cal Poly at Weber State – Wildcats need a win to have a hope of dancing
Southern Illinois at SEMO – Seed cement for the Salukis
Arkansas Pine-Bluff at Prairie View A&M – Panthers keep long-shot at-large hopes alive with a win

2:05 PM
South Dakota State at Western Illinois – Play in, or play out for the Jackrabbits
Montana at Montana State – seeding implications for Montana, survival implications for State

2:30 PM
Bethune-Cookman at Florida A&M – Rattlers keep the most remote of at-large chances alive with a win

3:00 PM
Sam Houston State at Texas State – Texas State keeps remote chances for an auto-bid alive with a win
Stephen F. Austin at Northwestern State – Lumberjacks take an auto-bid with a win

3:30 PM
Delaware at Villanova – Wildcats take the #1 seed, and a CAA auto-bid, with a win
Western Carolina at Appalachian State – Mountaineers keep seeding chances alive with a win

5:05 PM
Eastern Washington at Northern Arizona – Play in, or play out for the Eagles

8:00 PM
Central Arkansas at McNeese State – The Cowboys probably dance with a win, so the final spot will likely not be settled until late in the evening

FCS Playoff Watch #2 2009

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #3: Midweek Update and Predictions
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2009 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2009: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions

This will be a weekly feature until selection day. Comments, corrections, and (constructive) criticism are most welcome. Be mindful of the rules of engagement at this blog. I will post a mid-week update with a full seeding discussion after the release of the polls and the GPI.

Seeds (2): Montana; Southern Illinois

Locks (9): Appalachian State; Eastern Illinois; Elon; Holy Cross; New Hampshire; Richmond; South Carolina State; Villanova; William & Mary

In the Hunt (6): Eastern Washington; McNeese State; Montana State; Northern Iowa; South Dakota State; Stephen F. Austin

Livin’ on a Prayer (9): Butler; Central Connecticut State; Colgate; Florida A&M; Lafayette; Liberty; Prairie View A&M; Weber State; Texas State

Off the Board (8): Delaware; Eastern Kentucky; Illinois State; Massachusetts; Missouri State; Northern Arizona; Southeastern Louisiana; Tennessee Tech


Auto Bid Conferences

Big Sky Conference

Montana (10-0; 7-0)

Montana took care of business this week by posting a 38-10 margin over Northern Colorado – precisely the sort of scoreline that we SHOULD have seen last week. This win also garners them the Big Sky auto-bid. It also clinches a #3 or #4 seed; the basic standard this year is going to be one-loss champions from the top four conferences.
Status: Seed

Eastern Washington (7-3; 5-2)

Eastern’s win was nothing more than should be expected in playing Southern Utah, a perennial FCS whipping boy. Next week is crunch time. A win at Northern Arizona would leave them at 8-3, with computer numbers probably strong enough to take an at-large bid, although a loss by another at-large contender would be required for comfort. A loss would leave them praying that the committee takes a 7-4 team.
Status: In The Hunt

Montana State (7-3; 5-2)

Montana State heads into their yearly grudge match with Montana with a simple prospect in front of them. Win, and reach seven DI wins and an 8-3 record, and likely receive one of the final at-large bids handed out. Lose and stay home.
Status: In the Hunt

Weber State (6-4; 6-2)

Weber State managed moral victories against FBS opponents Wyoming and Colorado State earlier in the season. They need a real one against Cal Poly on Saturday to keep themselves in the playoff hunt. They are the strongest 4-loss team in the FCS, so do not be surprised to see them in the field should other events proceed favorably for them.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Northern Arizona (5-5; 4-3)

The loss to Weber State leaves Northern Arizona unable to reach seven DI wins.
Status: Off the Board

Key games this week:

Montana at Montana State
Montana wants the best seed possible, while Montana State needs a win to stay alive.

Eastern Washington at Northern Arizona
Eastern needs to win to take an at-large bid.

Cal Poly at Weber State
Weber State keeps its chances alive with a win.


Colonial Athletic Association

Villanova (9-1; 6-1)

With its expected win at Towson, and the loss by New Hampshire, Villanova is now in the driver’s seat for the CAA auto-bid and the #1 seed, as they defeated the two other one-loss CAA teams, Richmond and William & Mary. Should they underestimate a tough Delaware team on Saturday it could all go pear-shaped for them.
Status: Lock

Richmond (9-1; 7-1)

Like Villanova, Richmond were in taking care of business mode on Saturday, but face a tough final opponent in William and Mary. Win, and they keep their hopes of a CAA auto-bid and seed alive. Lose, and they will have to settle for an at-large bid, and, hopefully, a first-round match at home.
Status: Lock

William & Mary (9-1; 6-1)

William & Mary took down New Hampshire on Saturday in a thriller which lived up to the hype. Like Richmond, they are still in the running for the CAA auto-bid and a seed, while losing will still yield an at-large bid.
Status: Lock

New Hampshire (8-2; 5-2)

New Hampshire’s loss to William & Mary now means that their final game of the season against Maine is essentially irrelevant. To everyone outside of Maine and New Hampshire that is. TURN EM’ BLACK AND BLUE BEARS!
Status: Lock

Delaware (6-4; 4-3) and Massachusetts (5-5; 3-4)

With their losses, both teams are unable to reach seven DI wins.
Status: Off the board

Key games this week:

Delaware at Villanova
Villanova clinches the auto-bid and a seed with a win.

William & Mary at Richmond
Both teams could still take the auto-bid with a win, and could, potentially, represent a second seeded CAA team. On paper, the best matchup in the FCS this week.


Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

South Carolina State (7-0; 9-1)

The Bulldogs clinched the MEAC auto-bid with their win on Saturday. Computer numbers are not strong enough to contend for a seed.
Status: Lock

Florida A&M (7-3; 5-2)

The disastrous loss at Hampton has cooked Florida A&M’s chances, and they will be one of the first minimally qualifying teams to go off the selection board.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer


Missouri Valley Football Conference

Southern Illinois (9-1; 8-0)
WOO HOO SALUKIS! Southern Illinois completed a perfect conference season on Saturday, and should receive the #2 overall seed should they take down hapless SEMO next Saturday. Numbers are so strong that, even with a loss, they have a better resume than Appalachian State or a third CAA team, so a seed is safe.
Status: Seed

South Dakota State (7-3; 6-1)

South Dakota State narrowly failed to take down FBS Minnesota on Saturday, so they must wait until the final game of their season to clinch what they hope will be their first FCS playoff berth. The only thing standing in their way is 1-9 Western Illinois. Brace yourself for dancing Jackrabbits!
Status: In the Hunt

Northern Iowa (7-3; 5-2)

The win against Western Illinois on Saturday took Northern Iowa one step closer to a playoff berth that looked like a formality at the beginning of the season. Winning at Illinois State would get them there, although not by the route that they would have chosen.
Status: In the Hunt

Missouri State (6-5; 4-4) and Illinois State (5-5; 4-3)

With their losses on Saturday, both teams are unable to reach seven DI wins.
Status: Off the Board

Key games this week:

SEMO at Southern Illinois
The Salukis clinch a likely #2 seed with a win.

South Dakota State at Western Illinois
Jackrabbits dance with a win.

Northern Iowa at Illinois State
Panthers dance with a win.


Ohio Valley Conference

Eastern Illinois (8-2; 6-1)

With their win against Tennessee-Martin on Saturday, Eastern Illinois clinched the OVC auto-bid, given the postseason ineligibility of Jacksonville State. Computer numbers are not strong enough for seeding consideration.
Status: Lock

Eastern Kentucky (5-5; 5-2) and Tennessee Tech (5-5; 4-3)

With their losses on Saturday, both teams are unable to either reach seven DI wins, or take the OVC auto-bid.
Status: Off the Board


Patriot League

Holy Cross (9-1; 5-0)

Holy Cross held on to win on Saturday in their game against Lafayette, and clinched the Patriot League auto-bid. Computer numbers are not strong enough for seeding consideration.
Status: Lock

Lafayette (8-2; 4-1)
Lafayette is not COMPLETELY out of it. The bubble is soft enough this year that it is very possible that a 9-2 Patriot League team could receive an at-large bid. Be successful in THE RIVALRY. And start praying.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Colgate (9-2; 4-2)
The regular season is over for Colgate, as is their entire season in all likelihood, given their poor computer numbers. An at-large bid remains a remote possibility should Lafayette lose on Saturday and other stars align perfectly.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key game this week:

Lafayette at Lehigh
NUFF SAID


Southern Conference

Appalachian State (8-2; 7-0)
The more things change. . .you know the cliché. With their win at Elon on Saturday, the Mountaineers take their zillionth SOCON championship and auto-bid. With a win next Saturday against Western Carolina, they put themselves into the seeding conversation, with a likely debate over whether they are more deserving than a second team from the CAA.
Status: Lock

Elon (8-2; 6-1)
Elon were eliminated from auto-bid and seeding consideration with their loss on Saturday, but, with eight DI wins, have a safe at-large bid awaiting them even in the unlikely event of a loss on Saturday.
Status: Lock


Southland Conference

Stephen F. Austin (8-2; 5-1)
With the win at Southeastern Louisiana, the Lumberjacks are all but assured of a playoff spot; the only reason they are not moved into Lock status is that one of their wins came against a non-DI opponent. With a win against 0-10 Northwestern State next week, they take the Southland auto-bid.
Status: In the Hunt

McNeese State (8-2; 5-1)
The Cowboys can only take the Southland auto-bid should Stephen F. Austin lose on Saturday, but the good news is that a win on Saturday should give them an at-large bid given their strong computer numbers, aided by the early season victory over Appalachian State. A loss by another at-large contender would, however, be required for complete comfort. As with Stephen F. Austin, they do not move into Lock Status since one win came against a non-DI opponent.
Status: In the Hunt

Texas State (6-4; 4-2)
With the loss to McNeese State, Texas State is unable to reach seven DI wins. Should they win on Saturday, AND Stephen F. Austin and McNeese lose, we will have to research tie-breakers for the auto-bid since Texas State beat Stephen F. Austin, who beat McNeese State, who beat Texas State.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Southeastern Louisiana (6-4; 4-2)
With their loss on Saturday, the Lions are unable to reach seven DI wins, and are eliminated from contention for the Southland auto-bid.
Status: Off the Board

Key games this week:

Stephen F. Austin at Northwestern State
The Lumberjacks clinch the auto-bid with a win.

Central Arkansas at McNeese State
The Cowboys need a win to stay in at-large contention.


Other At-large Contenders

Liberty (8-2; 5-0)
Liberty reached seven DI wins on Saturday, but do not expect a make-up call by the committee this year, to make up for the injustice of last year. A win against Stony Brook next week will not help their numbers much.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Prairie View A&M (7-1; 7-0)
The Panthers continued their winning ways on Saturday, and posted their seventh DI win, but weak computer numbers and an incomplete schedule will likely mean that it is all for naught. But for a three point loss at New Mexico State it could have been a different story.
Status: Livin' on a Prayer

Central Connecticut State (8-2; 5-1)
A narrow win against Monmouth this week has kept the hopes of the Blue Devils alive. Emphasis on hopes. Prior losses to William & Mary and Wagner will mean a quick exit from the board. But no worries, a NEC auto-bid soon awaits.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Butler (9-1; 6-1)
Butler’s chances of an at-large berth are somewhere on par with the Yankees declaring unilateral disarmament in the Baseball spending wars, especially considering their bad loss to Jacksonville on Saturday.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #1

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #3: Midweek Update and Predictions
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2009 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2009: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions

This will be a weekly feature until selection day. Comments, corrections, and (constructive) criticism are most welcome. Be mindful of the rules of engagement at this blog.

Locks (7): Elon; Montana; New Hampshire; Richmond; Southern Illinois; Villanova; William & Mary

In the Hunt (14) (13): Appalachian State; Eastern Illinois; Eastern Washington; Holy Cross; Jacksonville State; Lafayette; McNeese State; Montana State; Northern Iowa; South Carolina State; South Dakota State; Southeastern Louisiana; Stephen F. Austin; Texas State

Livin’ on a Prayer (14): Butler; Central Connecticut State; Colgate; Delaware; Eastern Kentucky; Florida A&M; Illinois State; Liberty; Massachusetts; Missouri State; Northern Arizona; Prairie View A&M; Tennessee Tech; Weber State


Auto Bid Conferences

Big Sky Conference

Montana (9-0; 6-0)

Montana survived a scare on Saturday, winning on a last second field goal versus an 0-9 Idaho State team that should not have even been in the same stadium. Despite this, they still find themselves on top of the Coaches Poll, and are now all but assured of taking the Big Sky auto-bid. Should that not occur, losing out would still leave them with an at-large bid given their 8 DI wins. Winning out should yield a seed.
Status: Lock

Eastern Washington (6-3; 5-2)

A narrow loss at Montana on October 17 took Eastern Washington out of the picture for an auto-bid, but winning out would leave them at 8-3, and, in all likelihood, with a at-large bid. The crunch game will occur on the final day of the season when they travel to Northern Arizona.
Status: In The Hunt

Montana State (6-3; 4-2)

As usual, Montana State’s playoff chances will come down to the final day of the season, when Montana comes knocking. Winning out would leave them at 8-3, and a shoe-in for an at-large spot. The auto-bid is still a possibility, but is highly unlikely.
Status: In the Hunt

Weber State (5-4; 5-2) and Northern Arizona (5-4; 4-2)

One thing is certain, One of these two teams will be out of the playoff picture after they play each other on Saturday. Winning out would leave each of these teams at 7-4, and not out of the picture given that 4 loss teams have received at-large bids in each of the last two seasons. Given close losses to FBS teams, Weber State would have a reasonable case.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key games this week:

Northern Colorado at Montana
Montana takes the auto-bid with a win.

Northern Arizona at Weber State
Elimination game.


Colonial Athletic Association

Richmond (8-1; 6-1)

Final-drive heroics by Villanova have spoiled the Spiders perfect season, but with eight DI wins under their belt, including the FBS scalp of Duke, the defending National Champions are assured of a playoff spot. They are one of four CAA teams with a serious shot at both the auto-bid and a seed.
Status: Lock

New Hampshire (8-1; 5-1)

Only a loss at long-time nemesis Massachusetts marks the record of the Wildcats, who, like Richmond, took down an FBS team, Ball State. If they win out, they have a chance at the auto-bid and seed, and would still back in to a at-large spot with two losses to close the season. The crunch game comes on Saturday versus William and Mary.
Status: Lock

Villanova (8-1; 5-1)

With the win over Richmond, most of Villanova’s heavy lifting is done for the season. They face a weak Towson team next week, and a tougher Delaware team on the final day. As with Richmond and New Hampshire, winning out yields the possibility of an auto-bid and seed, and losing out would still leave them with an at-large.
Status: Lock

William & Mary (8-1; 5-1)

William & Mary’s chances of perfect season came to an end versus Villanova in October, and now face the unenviable task of facing down New Hampshire and Richmond in their final two games of the season. Winning out would yield the possibility of an auto-bid and seed, but losing out would still them leave with an at-large, given the win against FBS Virginia.
Status: Lock

Delaware (6-3; 4-3)

Delaware’s chances for a playoff spot may have ended on the second weekend of the season, when they lost by a point against Richmond. To have a chance, they must now defeat both FBS Navy and Villanova on the road, and then hope that its seven DI wins are enough.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Masschusetts (5-4; 3-3)

What if Massachusetts had sealed the deal at Kansas State? What if Maine had not turned them Black and Blue? They would be optimistic about their hopes at a playoff spot. As it is, they must hope that they take care of business against James Madison and Hofstra, and that the committee will once again take a four-loss CAA team.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key games this week:

James Madison at Massachusetts
Massachusetts needs the win to stay alive.

UNH at William & Mary
On paper, the best FCS game of the week.

Delaware at Navy
Delaware needs an unlikely win to stay alive.


Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

South Carolina State (6-0; 8-1)

The Bulldogs victory against Florida A&M on October 17 leaves them in the drivers seat for the MEAC auto-bid, which can be clinched with a win in either of their last two games.
Status: In the Hunt

Florida A&M (7-2; 5-1)

The Rattlers chances are all but cooked. They could still take the auto-bid if they win out, and South Carolina loses out. Winning out would leave them at 9-2, but probably without the computer numbers to warrant an at-large bid.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key games this week:

Morgan State at South Carolina State
South Carolina State takes the auto-bid with a win

Florida A&M at Hampton
Florida A&M keeps its slim hopes alive with a win.


Missouri Valley Football Conference

Southern Illinois (8-1; 7-0)

WOO HOO SALUKIS! The convincing win at South Dakota State earns Southern Illinois at least a share of the conference title, and also clinches the auto-bid by virtue of head-to-head record. Should they take down a good Missouri State on Saturday, and take care of business on the final day of the season, a seed awaits.
Status: Lock

South Dakota State (7-2; 6-1)

The loss to Southern Illinois still leaves two paths forward for South Dakota State to reach their first FCS playoffs. The first would involve an unlikely victory versus FBS Minnesota on Saturday. The second would involve taking down one-win Western Illinois on the road on the final day of the season. Brace yourself for dancing Jackrabbits!
Status: In the Hunt

Northern Iowa (6-3; 4-2)

This is not the season that would have been expected after nearly taking down a ranked FBS opponent on the first day of the season. Despite missteps, Northern Iowa can, however, book a spot in the playoffs should they take down a hapless Western Illinois team this weekend, and a tougher Illinois State team on the final day of the season.
Status: In the Hunt

Missouri State (6-4; 4-3) and Illinois State (5-4; 4-2)

A perfect end to the season for both these teams would leave them with a 7-4 record which, given the past two selections, would not leave them out of the picture entirely. Even that scenario seems unlikely, however, as Missouri State must travel to Southern Illinois, and Illinois State must host a Northern Iowa team which will be hungry.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key games this week:

South Dakota State at Minnesota
The Jackrabbits dance with a win.

Illinois State at Youngstown State
Illinois State is off the board with a loss.

Missouri State at Southern Illinois
Missouri State is off the board with a loss. A Southern Illinois win puts them one step closer to a seed.



Ohio Valley Conference

Eastern Illinois (7-2; 5-1)

Eastern Illinois is in the drivers seat in the OVC, thanks to their win at Jacksonville State on October 24. At least a share of the title, but, more importantly, the auto-bid, is theirs for the taking should they win out against middling opposition on the last two days of the season. Computer numbers are good enough to warrant at-large consideration with one more win.
Status: In the Hunt

Jacksonville State (6-3; 4-1)

The bad news for Jacksonville State is that their chances for the auto-bid are slim, and that they must face two tough opponents, Eastern Kentucky and Tennessee Tech, in their final two games of the season. The good news is that winning out would leave them at 8-3, with computer numbers even stronger than they are now, and an at-large bid.
Correction: Jacksonville State is ineligible for postseason play this year as a result of academic failures. Thanks to William for the Tip.
Status: In the Hunt Off the Board

Eastern Kentucky (5-4; 5-2) and Tennessee Tech (5-4; 4-2)

Both of these two teams would have to both win out, and have all stars align in their favor to take the OVC auto-bid. And lets face it, the OVC is not strong enough that 7-4 teams will be seriously considered for an at-large bid by the committee.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key games this week:

Tennessee Tech at Jacksonville State
Tech is off the board with a loss. This is step one of taking care of business for Jacksonville State

Western Carolina at Eastern Kentucky
Eastern is off the board with a loss.


Patriot League

Holy Cross (8-1; 4-0) and Lafayette (8-1; 4-0)
This is pretty simple. Win on Saturday, and take the auto-bid. Lose, and find yourself praying that the committee will overlook your weak schedule and let you in as a potentially 9-2 at-large team.
Status: In the Hunt

Colgate (8-2; 3-2)
The die for Colgate has essentially been cast by its weak OOC schedule, and the losses to Holy Cross and Lafayette. Winning against Bucknell on Saturday will do little to improve their computer numbers.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key game this week:

Lafayette at Holy Cross
Patriot League bragging rights on the line, not to mention an auto-bid.


Southern Conference

Elon (8-1; 6-0)
Elon missed the playoffs last season only because of their final day loss at Liberty. Whatever the results of their last two games this season, we should see them dancing this year. Winning out would leave them with a strong case for a seed.
Status: Lock

Appalachian State (7-2; 6-0)
With the exception of an uncharacteristic loss to McNeese State, it has been business as usual for Appalachian State this season. A seed may be out of reach even if they win out, winning on Saturday yields them an auto-bid, while losing but winning in their final game of the season would yield them an at-large bid.
Status: In the Hunt

Key game this week:
Appalachian State at Elon
SOCON bragging rights and an auto-bid on the line.


Southland Conference

Stephen F. Austin (7-2; 4-1) and McNeese State (7-2; 4-1)
Is the Southland Conference good this year? It could be. They are certainly showing enough signs of life that it could be a two-bid league. That would likely happen should both of these teams win out, which would give Stephen F. Austin the auto-bid based on head-to-head record, and McNeese State an at-large, mostly on the strength of their early-season victory over Appalachian State.
Status: In the Hunt

Southeastern Louisiana (6-3; 4-1) and Texas State (6-3; 4-1)
While at-large bids are likely out of reach for both these teams, both can keep their chances for an auto-bid alive with a win this weekend. Their opponents? Stephen F. Austin and McNeese State respectively.
Status: In the Hunt

Key games this week:

Stephen F. Austin at Southern Louisiana and McNeese State at Texas State
Louisiana and Texas go off the board with losses, while McNeese State and Stephen F. Austin march towards the playoffs with wins.


Other At-large Contenders

Liberty (7-2; 4-0)
Liberty were unjustly left out of the playoffs last year, despite a 10-2 record and a final game demolition of Elon. Unfortunately, their prospects are worse this year, given that they will only have one truly quality win, Lafayette, on their resume. Time to start praying for a make up call by the committee.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Central Connecticut State (7-2; 4-1)
Scheduling an all DI schedule, including Lehigh and William & Mary was a signal that the Blue Devils were not willing to wait for the NEC to get an auto-bid in order for them to make the playoffs. The loss to William & Mary dented those hopes, and the loss to Wagner on Saturday probably destroyed them.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Prairie View A&M (6-0; 6-1)
While the Panthers, and SWAC, will likely be left out again due to an incomplete schedule and lack of quality wins, it should be noted that they produced a FBS near miss, losing by only three points at New Mexico State.
Status: Livin' on a Prayer

Butler (9-0; 6-0)
Pioneer League representation in the playoffs? Better hope for an 11-0 record. And meaningful scheduling.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer