FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions

Bracket

Click here for a printable bracket.

South Dakoka State (8-3, At-Large)
at
#1 Montana (11-0, Big Sky Auto-Bid)

Eastern Washington (8-3, At-Large)
at
Stephen F. Austin (9-2, Southland Auto-Bid)


Elon (9-2, At-Large)
at
#4 Richmond (10-1, At-Large)

South Carolina State (10-1, MEAC Auto-Bid)
at
Appalachian State (9-2, At-Large SOCON Auto-Bid)


Holy Cross (9-2, Patriot Auto-Bid)
at
#2 Villanova (10-1, CAA Auto-Bid)

New Hampshire (9-2, At-Large)
at
McNeese State (9-2, At-Large)


Eastern Illinois (8-3, OVC Auto-Bid)
at
#3 Southern Illinois (10-1, MVFC Auto-Bid)

Weber State (7-4, At-Large)
at
William and Mary (9-2, At-Large)

Prediction success:
At-Large Bids: 8/8 (7/8 last year)
Seeds: 4/4 (3/4 last year)
Home Teams: 8/8 (6/8 last year)
Pairings: 6/8 (1/8 last year)

Criticism

Congratulations to the selection committee for a job well done. Unlike last year, my criticisms are very much of the nit-picking variety.

Seeding

Rather than focusing on schedule strength, or how a team actually won, the committee chose to focus on Montana's gaudy record. In the words of John McCutcheon, the selection chair: "By virtue of Montana's undefeated record, it gave them a slight edge for the top seed." That is one way to go, but, it my opinion, it meant seeding Montana over two superior teams, Villanova and Southern Illinois. Villanova by far had the best combination of strength of schedule and wins in the FCS. No team other than Southern Illinois had any FCS team get any closer than a touchdown.

At-Large Bids

I only bring this up because the selection chat, while mostly devoid of any useful information, gave us this important insight:

There were actually eleven teams under consideration for the final two spots in the field, so it would be difficult to single out any specific school as being the last team out.

What were those eleven teams? I would posit Butler, Central Connecticut State, Colgate, Dayton, Eastern Washington, Florida A&M, Lafayette, Liberty, Northern Iowa, Prairie View A&M, Weber State. This is why I keep those teams "Livin' on a Prayer" under consideration right up through my final updates.

Geographic Fudging?

Unlike last year, that seems to have been absent, with one possible exception. I asked the following question during the selection chat. Naturally, it is a question which was not answered:

I note that the teams that would have probably been #5 and #6 if the field was fully seeded, Appalachian State and William and Mary, have potential second round matchups with the #4 and #3 seeds, Richmond and Southern Illinois respectively. Was this deliberate or happenstance?

In the case of Richmond/Appalachian State this was dictated by the pairing rules. But by those same pairing rules, it would have made more sense to place New Hampshire/McNeese State in the same pod as Southern Illinois, and William and Mary/Weber State in the same pod as Villanova.

But these criticisms are about as minor as they come. Congratulations, again, to the committee.

Predictions

The Jackrabbits run Montana ragged, but the home field advantage sticks.

The Lumberjacks face an air raid, successfully pulled off by Eastern Washington.

The fortunes of the Phoenix turn to ashes, and Richmond begins its defense of the title.

The Bulldogs are not stubborn enough to prevent a victory by Appalachian State, setting up a quarterfinal made-for-TV.

The Crusade somehow fails to convert anyone at Villanova.

The Cowboys are shredded by New Hampshire.

Panthers of any stripe show themselves unable to deal with Southern Illinois this year.

The Wildcats face jet lag, and a team too tough to handle in William and Mary.

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #3: Midweek Update and Predictions
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2009 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2009: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions

FCS Playoffs 2009: Bracket Projection

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #3: Midweek Update and Predictions
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2009 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2009: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions

Holy Cross (9-2; Patriot Auto-Bid)
at
#1 Villanova (10-1; CAA Auto-Bid)

Eastern Washington (8-3; At-Large)
at
William and Mary (9-2; At-Large)


Elon (9-2; At-Large)
at
#4 Richmond (10-1; At-Large)

South Carolina State (10-1; MEAC Auto-Bid)
at
Appalachian State (9-2; SOCON Auto-Bid)


Eastern Illinois (8-3; OVC Auto-Bid)
at
#2 Southern Illinois (10-1; MVFC Auto-Bid)

New Hampshire (9-2; At-Large)
at
McNeese State (8[9]-2[3]; At Large)


South Dakota State (8-3; At-Large)
at
#3 Montana (11-0; Big Sky Auto-Bid)

Weber State (7-4; At-Large)
at
Stephen F. Austin (9-2; Southlands Auto-Bid)


As always, the pairing rules leave a number of things to be desired. In this case, four of the top six teams are in the top part of the bracket, including three of the four CAA teams. So how did I get there?


At-Large Bids

Teams with nine wins or more from the top conferences choose themselves, so there is no question about Elon, New Hampshire, Richmond, and William & Mary. Teams from the top conferences with eight or more wins typically get in as well, so there is no great question about Eastern Washington, McNeese State, or South Dakota State. After this, the picture is about a clear as mud, given the losses today by Lafayette, Liberty, and Northern Iowa. Who has a shot at the final spot? As I see it, it comes down to a 9-2 team with a weak schedule (albeit with 9 DI wins), Colgate, and two 7-4 teams from top conferences, Northern Iowa, and Weber State. Given the committee’s practice of choosing four-loss teams from strong conferences in each of the last two years, I suspect that Northern Iowa or Weber State will get the nod. Of these two teams, Weber State by far has the best victory, over Appalachian State Eastern Washington, and its worst loss, Montana State was not as bad as Northern Iowa’s worst loss, to Illinois State. Weber State gets the last bid.


Seeding

There are five obvious candidates for seeds this year, the auto-bid winners from the top four conferences, Appalachian State, Montana, Southern Illinois, and Villanova, and another team, Richmond, which both had a near-perfect record and a tough schedule. I place Villanova in the #1 spot, since they topped the computer numbers, played an entirely DI schedule, and picked up an FBS win. Southern Illinois is in the #2 slot since no FCS team got closer than a touchdown this year, and they lost only to FBS opponent Marshall by a field goal. Montana is placed in the #3 slot despite their undefeated season, since FCS teams repeatedly ran them close, including 1-10 Idaho State. The committee might be tempted to give SOCON champion the #4 seed, but Richmond has one fewer loss and an FBS win under its belt.


Seeded Pairings

Holy Cross is the closest non-conference matchup for Villanova; a very short trip by plane or a long bus ride.

Eastern Illinois will travel by bus to take on the Salukis in the Illinois championship.

South Dakota State is the closest non-conference matchup for Montana, but the distance is so long that this pairing is very much in doubt.

Elon will have a medium bus trip up I-85 to take on Richmond.


Non-Seeded Pairings

There is only one obvious geographic pairing in this group, Appalachian State and South Carolina State – and Appalachian State will likely take the home game. Beyond this, there are problems, given the vast distances between the remaining six teams. Who will have home games? Based on attendance, McNeese State, Stephen F. Austin, and William and Mary. Who to pair with them? New Hampshire's shortest (permissible) plane flight would be to McNeese State in Louisiana, and Weber State's shortest plane flight would be to Stephen F. Austin in Texas. This unfortunately leaves Eastern Washington to fly cross-country to William and Mary. Any of these pairings could completely go in a different direction!


Finishing the Bracket

Elon/Richmond and SCSU/Appalachian State make for a neat, southeast pod. After that, we are once again left with a mess. Here is the rationale. William & Mary Would have a short trip to a potential second round matchup with Villanova.Weber State and McNeese State would have (shorter) trips to Montana than any other pair of teams. This leaves New Hampshire and McNeese State as the leftover pairing, matched up with Southern Illinois. As always, however, the committee may choose to fudge its rules to produce a better bracket than their rules dictate.


Bids by Conference

CAA: 4
Big Sky: 3
MVFC: 2
SOCON: 2
Southland: 2
MEAC: 1
OVC: 1
Patriot: 1

FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2009 Playoffs

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #3: Midweek Update and Predictions
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2009 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2009: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions

Consequential scores and updates as the afternoon progresses:

1:26 PM

William and Mary 3
Richmond 3
half
A defense dominated snoozer so far.

Update (1) 2:11 PM

Lafayette 7
Lehigh 7
half
Lehigh hanging tough in THE RIVALRY.

UNI 3
Illinois State 13
1:47 2nd
Every bubble team is now a Redturds Redbirds fan.

Liberty 10
Stony Brook 21
4:16 2nd
Flames bubble hopes in jeopardy.

Update (2) 2:24 PM

Drake 3
Butler 3
half
*SNOOZE*

UNI 3
Illinois State 16
half
Ughhh. Sick Panthers.

Liberty 13
Stony Brook 21
half
Flames extinguished?

William and Mary 3
Richmond 10
14:16 4th
WOO HOO! ACTION!

Update (3) 2:27 PM

William and Mary 10
Richmond 10
12:09 4th
Turning into a good one!

Update (4) 2:43 PM

Central Connecticut State 14
St. Francis 13
final
NEC honors to the Blue Devils. Chances of an at-large? Slim to none.

Eastern Kentucky 20
Jacksonville State 21
half
Colonels keep their under-the-radar playoff chances alive.

Update (5) 3:01 PM

William & Mary 10
Richmond 13
final
With the last second field goal, the Spiders will fancy their chances for a seed.

Update (6) 3:16 PM

Southern Illinois 21
SEMO 0
half
Should be seed Salukis!

Update (7) 3:39 PM

UNI 13
Illinois State 16
final
UNI cooks its season, and bubble teams everywhere cheer.

UNI 20
Illinois State 16
final
REDTURDS MELTDOWN!

UNI 20
Illinois State 22
final
PANTHERS MELTDOWN!

Lafayette 21
Lehigh 21
OT

Lafayette 21
Lehigh 26
final/OT

Update (8) 4:05 PM

Drake 17
Butler 20
final
Butler takes Pioneer League honors. With bubble teams dropping left and right, should they be ruled out of an at-large!?!?!?

Liberty 33
Stony Brook 36
final
Does ANY bubble team want to win today?

Update (9) 4:18 PM

Eastern Kentucky 26
Jacksonville State 34
final
Eastern Illinois backs into the OVC auto-bid.

Update (10) 4:28 PM

Stephen F. Austin 10
Northwestern State 10
half
Another team with work to do having problems.

Florida A&M 28
Bethune Cookman 0
half
Only the 'fringe' bubble teams seem to be doing well, with the exception of:

South Dakota State 27
Western Illinois 7
15:00 4th
Go Jackrabbits!

Update (11) 4:52 PM

Southern Illinois 42
SEMO 24
final
Seeded Salukis!

Cal Poly 14
Weber State 47
final
Is Weber State in? I think so!

Western Carolina 7
Appalachian State 3
2nd
Mountaineers need a win to keep seed hopes alive.

Update (12) 4:58 PM

So where is the bubble now, assuming no more upsets?

Last team in: (wins/losses categorized by GPI)
Weber State: 7-4 (Wins: 11, 23, 35, 47, 57, 68, 79; Losses: FBS, FBS, 5, 11)

Last team out:
Northern Iowa: 7-4 (Wins: 32, 33, 34, 54, 84, 105, 115; Losses: FBS, 2, 10, 40)

Update (13) 4:59 PM

South Dakota State 27
Western Illinois 7
final
Grats to the Jackrabbits on what will be their first FCS playoff appearance!

Update (14) 5:09 PM

Montana 33
Montana State 19
final
Montana books a seed, probably #3.

Update (15) 5:40 PM

Arkansas Pine-Bluff 17
Prairie View A&M 49
final
Another of the long-long shots wins.

Update (16) 6:02 PM

Stephen F. Austin 19
Northwestern State 10
final
Stephen F. Austin takes the Southlands auto-bid.

Florida A&M 42
Bethune-Cookman 6
final
Another another long-long shot wins.

Update (17) 6:27 PM

Western Carolina 14
Appalachian State 19
final
The Mountaineers make their case for a seed.

Delaware 12
Villanova 30
final
#1 seed clinched?

There is only one other game which will influence the playoff field, as bubble losses mean that McNeese State does not need to win later today to get in:

Eastern Washington 28
Northern Arizona 10
2:51 2nd

Final Update (18) 8:25

Eastern Washington 49
Northern Arizona 45
final
Given the carnage earlier in the day, the McNeese State game has become irrelevant, so it is time to post a projected bracket.

FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #3: Midweek Update and Predictions

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #3: Midweek Update and Predictions
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2009 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2009: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions

Comments, corrections, and (constructive) criticism are most welcome, but be mindful of the rules of engagement at this blog. Please join me on Saturday while I live-blog the significant results as they come in.

Predictions

Seeds:
1. Villanova
2. Southern Illinois
3. Montana
4. Richmond

Auto-Bids:
Montana (Big Sky)
Villanova (CAA)
South Carolina State (MEAC)
Southern Illinois (MVFC)
Eastern Illinois (OVC)
Holy Cross (Patriot)
Appalachian State (SOCON)
Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

At-Large Bids: (in order of comfort)
Richmond (CAA)
William & Mary (CAA)
Northern Iowa (MVFC)
New Hampshire (CAA)
Elon (SOCON)
South Dakota State (MVFC)
Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
McNeese State (Southland)

Bubble:
Lafayette (Patriot)
Weber State (Big Sky)
Liberty (Big South)


Seeding Discussion

Why is Villanova predicted as #1 seed over two teams, Southern Illinois and Montana, which have so far run the table in their conferences? They have two advantages. The Wildcats picked up an FBS win, and they had nothing but DI teams on their schedule. Southern Illinois would have been the #1 seed had they not lost by three points at FBS Marshall, but they have gone undefeated in the FCS, with only one team, Northern Iowa, getting within a touchdown. Montana might feel hard done by with a #3 seed given their undefeated season so far (which I expect to continue on Saturday – if it does not, they should slip to the #4 spot at best). It should be noted, however, that they both had a soft out of conference schedule, and have been run close by teams that they should have dominated – most notably by 1-10 Idaho State, who they beat on a last second field goal.

The biggest question mark surrounds the #4 seed. Will the committee decide to share the wealth? If they do, then Appalachian State will slot in at #4. If they choose the final slot based on this seasons’ performances, then expect to see a second seeded CAA team – whoever wins when William & Mary visits Richmond. Ironically, should Delaware pull an upset of Villanova, then the winner of the WM Richmond game could end up in the #1 slot. But beyond the five teams discussed, there are no serious contenders for seeds.


The At-Large Picture

Ultimately, there are nine teams who will fancy their chances to take the eight at-large bids:

Elon; Eastern Washington; McNeese State; Montana State; New Hampshire; Northern Iowa; Richmond; South Dakota State; William & Mary

Of these teams, four, Elon, New Hampshire, Richmond, and William & Mary are safe bet for an at-large bid should they lose on Saturday. Three of them, Eastern Washington, Northern Iowa, and South Dakota State are probably safe with a win. McNeese State and Montana State will be sweating even should they win.

The good news for the Cowboys and the Bobcats, and indeed other bubble teams like Lafayette, Weber State, and Liberty, is that there are multiple scenarios which would free up slots:

1. Losses by Eastern Washington, Northern Iowa, or South Dakota State.
2. A loss by Stephen F. Austin, along with a McNeese State win would give an auto-bid, rather than an at-large to the Cowboys. Stephen F. Austin’s numbers are weak enough that they would probably not be an at-large contender.

Who would this allow in? We would have a choice of three teams with imperfect resumes:

Lafayette (8-2; 4-1)
Lafayette can reach 9 DI wins with a victory in THE RIVALRY. Although their computer numbers are soft, the fact that this comes from a team in an auto-qualifying conference means that the committee will be tempted to take them – indeed Patriot League teams have received at-large bids with numbers worse than Lafayette’s would be with a victory on Saturday.

Weber State (6-4; 6-2)
Weber State is still in the conversation since they scheduled tougher than any other FCS team, taking on, and narrowly losing to, two FBS teams. A win on Saturday would leave them at 7-4, and by no means ruled out given that the committee has awarded at-large bids to 4 loss teams in each of the last two years.

Liberty (8-2; 5-0)
Liberty would have been in a much stronger position had they scheduled beatable FCS teams instead of West Virginia and DII West Virginia Wesleyan. The consequence of this is that they have failed to pick up two wins against FCS teams from auto-qualifying conferences, and find themselves with soft computer numbers. An at-large bid might be justice, but justice for the wrong reasons.


Auto-Bids Still Contested

CAA
Villanova takes the auto-bid with a win. The winner of the William & Mary/Richmond game takes the auto-bid with a Villanova loss.

Southland
Stephen F. Austin takes the auto-bid with a win. McNeese State takes the auto-bid with a win and a Stephen F. Austin loss. Should both teams lose, and Texas State wins, there will need to be some serious researching of tie-breaking procedures.


Schedule of Games to Follow Saturday (All Times Eastern)

12:00 PM
William & Mary at Richmond – seeding and potential auto-bid impact

12:30 PM
Lafayette at Lehigh – Lafayette needs the win for a shot at an at-large

1:00 PM
Drake at Butler – Pioneer League honors at stake
Central Connecticut State at St. Francis – NEC honors, and long-shot at-large hopes on the line for CCS
Northern Iowa at Illinois State – Play in, or play out for Northern Iowa
Liberty at Stony Brook – Flames need a win to have a hope of dancing

2:00 PM
Cal Poly at Weber State – Wildcats need a win to have a hope of dancing
Southern Illinois at SEMO – Seed cement for the Salukis
Arkansas Pine-Bluff at Prairie View A&M – Panthers keep long-shot at-large hopes alive with a win

2:05 PM
South Dakota State at Western Illinois – Play in, or play out for the Jackrabbits
Montana at Montana State – seeding implications for Montana, survival implications for State

2:30 PM
Bethune-Cookman at Florida A&M – Rattlers keep the most remote of at-large chances alive with a win

3:00 PM
Sam Houston State at Texas State – Texas State keeps remote chances for an auto-bid alive with a win
Stephen F. Austin at Northwestern State – Lumberjacks take an auto-bid with a win

3:30 PM
Delaware at Villanova – Wildcats take the #1 seed, and a CAA auto-bid, with a win
Western Carolina at Appalachian State – Mountaineers keep seeding chances alive with a win

5:05 PM
Eastern Washington at Northern Arizona – Play in, or play out for the Eagles

8:00 PM
Central Arkansas at McNeese State – The Cowboys probably dance with a win, so the final spot will likely not be settled until late in the evening

FCS Playoff Watch #2 2009

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #3: Midweek Update and Predictions
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2009 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2009: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions

This will be a weekly feature until selection day. Comments, corrections, and (constructive) criticism are most welcome. Be mindful of the rules of engagement at this blog. I will post a mid-week update with a full seeding discussion after the release of the polls and the GPI.

Seeds (2): Montana; Southern Illinois

Locks (9): Appalachian State; Eastern Illinois; Elon; Holy Cross; New Hampshire; Richmond; South Carolina State; Villanova; William & Mary

In the Hunt (6): Eastern Washington; McNeese State; Montana State; Northern Iowa; South Dakota State; Stephen F. Austin

Livin’ on a Prayer (9): Butler; Central Connecticut State; Colgate; Florida A&M; Lafayette; Liberty; Prairie View A&M; Weber State; Texas State

Off the Board (8): Delaware; Eastern Kentucky; Illinois State; Massachusetts; Missouri State; Northern Arizona; Southeastern Louisiana; Tennessee Tech


Auto Bid Conferences

Big Sky Conference

Montana (10-0; 7-0)

Montana took care of business this week by posting a 38-10 margin over Northern Colorado – precisely the sort of scoreline that we SHOULD have seen last week. This win also garners them the Big Sky auto-bid. It also clinches a #3 or #4 seed; the basic standard this year is going to be one-loss champions from the top four conferences.
Status: Seed

Eastern Washington (7-3; 5-2)

Eastern’s win was nothing more than should be expected in playing Southern Utah, a perennial FCS whipping boy. Next week is crunch time. A win at Northern Arizona would leave them at 8-3, with computer numbers probably strong enough to take an at-large bid, although a loss by another at-large contender would be required for comfort. A loss would leave them praying that the committee takes a 7-4 team.
Status: In The Hunt

Montana State (7-3; 5-2)

Montana State heads into their yearly grudge match with Montana with a simple prospect in front of them. Win, and reach seven DI wins and an 8-3 record, and likely receive one of the final at-large bids handed out. Lose and stay home.
Status: In the Hunt

Weber State (6-4; 6-2)

Weber State managed moral victories against FBS opponents Wyoming and Colorado State earlier in the season. They need a real one against Cal Poly on Saturday to keep themselves in the playoff hunt. They are the strongest 4-loss team in the FCS, so do not be surprised to see them in the field should other events proceed favorably for them.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Northern Arizona (5-5; 4-3)

The loss to Weber State leaves Northern Arizona unable to reach seven DI wins.
Status: Off the Board

Key games this week:

Montana at Montana State
Montana wants the best seed possible, while Montana State needs a win to stay alive.

Eastern Washington at Northern Arizona
Eastern needs to win to take an at-large bid.

Cal Poly at Weber State
Weber State keeps its chances alive with a win.


Colonial Athletic Association

Villanova (9-1; 6-1)

With its expected win at Towson, and the loss by New Hampshire, Villanova is now in the driver’s seat for the CAA auto-bid and the #1 seed, as they defeated the two other one-loss CAA teams, Richmond and William & Mary. Should they underestimate a tough Delaware team on Saturday it could all go pear-shaped for them.
Status: Lock

Richmond (9-1; 7-1)

Like Villanova, Richmond were in taking care of business mode on Saturday, but face a tough final opponent in William and Mary. Win, and they keep their hopes of a CAA auto-bid and seed alive. Lose, and they will have to settle for an at-large bid, and, hopefully, a first-round match at home.
Status: Lock

William & Mary (9-1; 6-1)

William & Mary took down New Hampshire on Saturday in a thriller which lived up to the hype. Like Richmond, they are still in the running for the CAA auto-bid and a seed, while losing will still yield an at-large bid.
Status: Lock

New Hampshire (8-2; 5-2)

New Hampshire’s loss to William & Mary now means that their final game of the season against Maine is essentially irrelevant. To everyone outside of Maine and New Hampshire that is. TURN EM’ BLACK AND BLUE BEARS!
Status: Lock

Delaware (6-4; 4-3) and Massachusetts (5-5; 3-4)

With their losses, both teams are unable to reach seven DI wins.
Status: Off the board

Key games this week:

Delaware at Villanova
Villanova clinches the auto-bid and a seed with a win.

William & Mary at Richmond
Both teams could still take the auto-bid with a win, and could, potentially, represent a second seeded CAA team. On paper, the best matchup in the FCS this week.


Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

South Carolina State (7-0; 9-1)

The Bulldogs clinched the MEAC auto-bid with their win on Saturday. Computer numbers are not strong enough to contend for a seed.
Status: Lock

Florida A&M (7-3; 5-2)

The disastrous loss at Hampton has cooked Florida A&M’s chances, and they will be one of the first minimally qualifying teams to go off the selection board.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer


Missouri Valley Football Conference

Southern Illinois (9-1; 8-0)
WOO HOO SALUKIS! Southern Illinois completed a perfect conference season on Saturday, and should receive the #2 overall seed should they take down hapless SEMO next Saturday. Numbers are so strong that, even with a loss, they have a better resume than Appalachian State or a third CAA team, so a seed is safe.
Status: Seed

South Dakota State (7-3; 6-1)

South Dakota State narrowly failed to take down FBS Minnesota on Saturday, so they must wait until the final game of their season to clinch what they hope will be their first FCS playoff berth. The only thing standing in their way is 1-9 Western Illinois. Brace yourself for dancing Jackrabbits!
Status: In the Hunt

Northern Iowa (7-3; 5-2)

The win against Western Illinois on Saturday took Northern Iowa one step closer to a playoff berth that looked like a formality at the beginning of the season. Winning at Illinois State would get them there, although not by the route that they would have chosen.
Status: In the Hunt

Missouri State (6-5; 4-4) and Illinois State (5-5; 4-3)

With their losses on Saturday, both teams are unable to reach seven DI wins.
Status: Off the Board

Key games this week:

SEMO at Southern Illinois
The Salukis clinch a likely #2 seed with a win.

South Dakota State at Western Illinois
Jackrabbits dance with a win.

Northern Iowa at Illinois State
Panthers dance with a win.


Ohio Valley Conference

Eastern Illinois (8-2; 6-1)

With their win against Tennessee-Martin on Saturday, Eastern Illinois clinched the OVC auto-bid, given the postseason ineligibility of Jacksonville State. Computer numbers are not strong enough for seeding consideration.
Status: Lock

Eastern Kentucky (5-5; 5-2) and Tennessee Tech (5-5; 4-3)

With their losses on Saturday, both teams are unable to either reach seven DI wins, or take the OVC auto-bid.
Status: Off the Board


Patriot League

Holy Cross (9-1; 5-0)

Holy Cross held on to win on Saturday in their game against Lafayette, and clinched the Patriot League auto-bid. Computer numbers are not strong enough for seeding consideration.
Status: Lock

Lafayette (8-2; 4-1)
Lafayette is not COMPLETELY out of it. The bubble is soft enough this year that it is very possible that a 9-2 Patriot League team could receive an at-large bid. Be successful in THE RIVALRY. And start praying.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Colgate (9-2; 4-2)
The regular season is over for Colgate, as is their entire season in all likelihood, given their poor computer numbers. An at-large bid remains a remote possibility should Lafayette lose on Saturday and other stars align perfectly.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key game this week:

Lafayette at Lehigh
NUFF SAID


Southern Conference

Appalachian State (8-2; 7-0)
The more things change. . .you know the cliché. With their win at Elon on Saturday, the Mountaineers take their zillionth SOCON championship and auto-bid. With a win next Saturday against Western Carolina, they put themselves into the seeding conversation, with a likely debate over whether they are more deserving than a second team from the CAA.
Status: Lock

Elon (8-2; 6-1)
Elon were eliminated from auto-bid and seeding consideration with their loss on Saturday, but, with eight DI wins, have a safe at-large bid awaiting them even in the unlikely event of a loss on Saturday.
Status: Lock


Southland Conference

Stephen F. Austin (8-2; 5-1)
With the win at Southeastern Louisiana, the Lumberjacks are all but assured of a playoff spot; the only reason they are not moved into Lock status is that one of their wins came against a non-DI opponent. With a win against 0-10 Northwestern State next week, they take the Southland auto-bid.
Status: In the Hunt

McNeese State (8-2; 5-1)
The Cowboys can only take the Southland auto-bid should Stephen F. Austin lose on Saturday, but the good news is that a win on Saturday should give them an at-large bid given their strong computer numbers, aided by the early season victory over Appalachian State. A loss by another at-large contender would, however, be required for complete comfort. As with Stephen F. Austin, they do not move into Lock Status since one win came against a non-DI opponent.
Status: In the Hunt

Texas State (6-4; 4-2)
With the loss to McNeese State, Texas State is unable to reach seven DI wins. Should they win on Saturday, AND Stephen F. Austin and McNeese lose, we will have to research tie-breakers for the auto-bid since Texas State beat Stephen F. Austin, who beat McNeese State, who beat Texas State.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Southeastern Louisiana (6-4; 4-2)
With their loss on Saturday, the Lions are unable to reach seven DI wins, and are eliminated from contention for the Southland auto-bid.
Status: Off the Board

Key games this week:

Stephen F. Austin at Northwestern State
The Lumberjacks clinch the auto-bid with a win.

Central Arkansas at McNeese State
The Cowboys need a win to stay in at-large contention.


Other At-large Contenders

Liberty (8-2; 5-0)
Liberty reached seven DI wins on Saturday, but do not expect a make-up call by the committee this year, to make up for the injustice of last year. A win against Stony Brook next week will not help their numbers much.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Prairie View A&M (7-1; 7-0)
The Panthers continued their winning ways on Saturday, and posted their seventh DI win, but weak computer numbers and an incomplete schedule will likely mean that it is all for naught. But for a three point loss at New Mexico State it could have been a different story.
Status: Livin' on a Prayer

Central Connecticut State (8-2; 5-1)
A narrow win against Monmouth this week has kept the hopes of the Blue Devils alive. Emphasis on hopes. Prior losses to William & Mary and Wagner will mean a quick exit from the board. But no worries, a NEC auto-bid soon awaits.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Butler (9-1; 6-1)
Butler’s chances of an at-large berth are somewhere on par with the Yankees declaring unilateral disarmament in the Baseball spending wars, especially considering their bad loss to Jacksonville on Saturday.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #1

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2009 #3: Midweek Update and Predictions
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2009 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2009: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions

This will be a weekly feature until selection day. Comments, corrections, and (constructive) criticism are most welcome. Be mindful of the rules of engagement at this blog.

Locks (7): Elon; Montana; New Hampshire; Richmond; Southern Illinois; Villanova; William & Mary

In the Hunt (14) (13): Appalachian State; Eastern Illinois; Eastern Washington; Holy Cross; Jacksonville State; Lafayette; McNeese State; Montana State; Northern Iowa; South Carolina State; South Dakota State; Southeastern Louisiana; Stephen F. Austin; Texas State

Livin’ on a Prayer (14): Butler; Central Connecticut State; Colgate; Delaware; Eastern Kentucky; Florida A&M; Illinois State; Liberty; Massachusetts; Missouri State; Northern Arizona; Prairie View A&M; Tennessee Tech; Weber State


Auto Bid Conferences

Big Sky Conference

Montana (9-0; 6-0)

Montana survived a scare on Saturday, winning on a last second field goal versus an 0-9 Idaho State team that should not have even been in the same stadium. Despite this, they still find themselves on top of the Coaches Poll, and are now all but assured of taking the Big Sky auto-bid. Should that not occur, losing out would still leave them with an at-large bid given their 8 DI wins. Winning out should yield a seed.
Status: Lock

Eastern Washington (6-3; 5-2)

A narrow loss at Montana on October 17 took Eastern Washington out of the picture for an auto-bid, but winning out would leave them at 8-3, and, in all likelihood, with a at-large bid. The crunch game will occur on the final day of the season when they travel to Northern Arizona.
Status: In The Hunt

Montana State (6-3; 4-2)

As usual, Montana State’s playoff chances will come down to the final day of the season, when Montana comes knocking. Winning out would leave them at 8-3, and a shoe-in for an at-large spot. The auto-bid is still a possibility, but is highly unlikely.
Status: In the Hunt

Weber State (5-4; 5-2) and Northern Arizona (5-4; 4-2)

One thing is certain, One of these two teams will be out of the playoff picture after they play each other on Saturday. Winning out would leave each of these teams at 7-4, and not out of the picture given that 4 loss teams have received at-large bids in each of the last two seasons. Given close losses to FBS teams, Weber State would have a reasonable case.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key games this week:

Northern Colorado at Montana
Montana takes the auto-bid with a win.

Northern Arizona at Weber State
Elimination game.


Colonial Athletic Association

Richmond (8-1; 6-1)

Final-drive heroics by Villanova have spoiled the Spiders perfect season, but with eight DI wins under their belt, including the FBS scalp of Duke, the defending National Champions are assured of a playoff spot. They are one of four CAA teams with a serious shot at both the auto-bid and a seed.
Status: Lock

New Hampshire (8-1; 5-1)

Only a loss at long-time nemesis Massachusetts marks the record of the Wildcats, who, like Richmond, took down an FBS team, Ball State. If they win out, they have a chance at the auto-bid and seed, and would still back in to a at-large spot with two losses to close the season. The crunch game comes on Saturday versus William and Mary.
Status: Lock

Villanova (8-1; 5-1)

With the win over Richmond, most of Villanova’s heavy lifting is done for the season. They face a weak Towson team next week, and a tougher Delaware team on the final day. As with Richmond and New Hampshire, winning out yields the possibility of an auto-bid and seed, and losing out would still leave them with an at-large.
Status: Lock

William & Mary (8-1; 5-1)

William & Mary’s chances of perfect season came to an end versus Villanova in October, and now face the unenviable task of facing down New Hampshire and Richmond in their final two games of the season. Winning out would yield the possibility of an auto-bid and seed, but losing out would still them leave with an at-large, given the win against FBS Virginia.
Status: Lock

Delaware (6-3; 4-3)

Delaware’s chances for a playoff spot may have ended on the second weekend of the season, when they lost by a point against Richmond. To have a chance, they must now defeat both FBS Navy and Villanova on the road, and then hope that its seven DI wins are enough.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Masschusetts (5-4; 3-3)

What if Massachusetts had sealed the deal at Kansas State? What if Maine had not turned them Black and Blue? They would be optimistic about their hopes at a playoff spot. As it is, they must hope that they take care of business against James Madison and Hofstra, and that the committee will once again take a four-loss CAA team.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key games this week:

James Madison at Massachusetts
Massachusetts needs the win to stay alive.

UNH at William & Mary
On paper, the best FCS game of the week.

Delaware at Navy
Delaware needs an unlikely win to stay alive.


Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

South Carolina State (6-0; 8-1)

The Bulldogs victory against Florida A&M on October 17 leaves them in the drivers seat for the MEAC auto-bid, which can be clinched with a win in either of their last two games.
Status: In the Hunt

Florida A&M (7-2; 5-1)

The Rattlers chances are all but cooked. They could still take the auto-bid if they win out, and South Carolina loses out. Winning out would leave them at 9-2, but probably without the computer numbers to warrant an at-large bid.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key games this week:

Morgan State at South Carolina State
South Carolina State takes the auto-bid with a win

Florida A&M at Hampton
Florida A&M keeps its slim hopes alive with a win.


Missouri Valley Football Conference

Southern Illinois (8-1; 7-0)

WOO HOO SALUKIS! The convincing win at South Dakota State earns Southern Illinois at least a share of the conference title, and also clinches the auto-bid by virtue of head-to-head record. Should they take down a good Missouri State on Saturday, and take care of business on the final day of the season, a seed awaits.
Status: Lock

South Dakota State (7-2; 6-1)

The loss to Southern Illinois still leaves two paths forward for South Dakota State to reach their first FCS playoffs. The first would involve an unlikely victory versus FBS Minnesota on Saturday. The second would involve taking down one-win Western Illinois on the road on the final day of the season. Brace yourself for dancing Jackrabbits!
Status: In the Hunt

Northern Iowa (6-3; 4-2)

This is not the season that would have been expected after nearly taking down a ranked FBS opponent on the first day of the season. Despite missteps, Northern Iowa can, however, book a spot in the playoffs should they take down a hapless Western Illinois team this weekend, and a tougher Illinois State team on the final day of the season.
Status: In the Hunt

Missouri State (6-4; 4-3) and Illinois State (5-4; 4-2)

A perfect end to the season for both these teams would leave them with a 7-4 record which, given the past two selections, would not leave them out of the picture entirely. Even that scenario seems unlikely, however, as Missouri State must travel to Southern Illinois, and Illinois State must host a Northern Iowa team which will be hungry.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key games this week:

South Dakota State at Minnesota
The Jackrabbits dance with a win.

Illinois State at Youngstown State
Illinois State is off the board with a loss.

Missouri State at Southern Illinois
Missouri State is off the board with a loss. A Southern Illinois win puts them one step closer to a seed.



Ohio Valley Conference

Eastern Illinois (7-2; 5-1)

Eastern Illinois is in the drivers seat in the OVC, thanks to their win at Jacksonville State on October 24. At least a share of the title, but, more importantly, the auto-bid, is theirs for the taking should they win out against middling opposition on the last two days of the season. Computer numbers are good enough to warrant at-large consideration with one more win.
Status: In the Hunt

Jacksonville State (6-3; 4-1)

The bad news for Jacksonville State is that their chances for the auto-bid are slim, and that they must face two tough opponents, Eastern Kentucky and Tennessee Tech, in their final two games of the season. The good news is that winning out would leave them at 8-3, with computer numbers even stronger than they are now, and an at-large bid.
Correction: Jacksonville State is ineligible for postseason play this year as a result of academic failures. Thanks to William for the Tip.
Status: In the Hunt Off the Board

Eastern Kentucky (5-4; 5-2) and Tennessee Tech (5-4; 4-2)

Both of these two teams would have to both win out, and have all stars align in their favor to take the OVC auto-bid. And lets face it, the OVC is not strong enough that 7-4 teams will be seriously considered for an at-large bid by the committee.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key games this week:

Tennessee Tech at Jacksonville State
Tech is off the board with a loss. This is step one of taking care of business for Jacksonville State

Western Carolina at Eastern Kentucky
Eastern is off the board with a loss.


Patriot League

Holy Cross (8-1; 4-0) and Lafayette (8-1; 4-0)
This is pretty simple. Win on Saturday, and take the auto-bid. Lose, and find yourself praying that the committee will overlook your weak schedule and let you in as a potentially 9-2 at-large team.
Status: In the Hunt

Colgate (8-2; 3-2)
The die for Colgate has essentially been cast by its weak OOC schedule, and the losses to Holy Cross and Lafayette. Winning against Bucknell on Saturday will do little to improve their computer numbers.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Key game this week:

Lafayette at Holy Cross
Patriot League bragging rights on the line, not to mention an auto-bid.


Southern Conference

Elon (8-1; 6-0)
Elon missed the playoffs last season only because of their final day loss at Liberty. Whatever the results of their last two games this season, we should see them dancing this year. Winning out would leave them with a strong case for a seed.
Status: Lock

Appalachian State (7-2; 6-0)
With the exception of an uncharacteristic loss to McNeese State, it has been business as usual for Appalachian State this season. A seed may be out of reach even if they win out, winning on Saturday yields them an auto-bid, while losing but winning in their final game of the season would yield them an at-large bid.
Status: In the Hunt

Key game this week:
Appalachian State at Elon
SOCON bragging rights and an auto-bid on the line.


Southland Conference

Stephen F. Austin (7-2; 4-1) and McNeese State (7-2; 4-1)
Is the Southland Conference good this year? It could be. They are certainly showing enough signs of life that it could be a two-bid league. That would likely happen should both of these teams win out, which would give Stephen F. Austin the auto-bid based on head-to-head record, and McNeese State an at-large, mostly on the strength of their early-season victory over Appalachian State.
Status: In the Hunt

Southeastern Louisiana (6-3; 4-1) and Texas State (6-3; 4-1)
While at-large bids are likely out of reach for both these teams, both can keep their chances for an auto-bid alive with a win this weekend. Their opponents? Stephen F. Austin and McNeese State respectively.
Status: In the Hunt

Key games this week:

Stephen F. Austin at Southern Louisiana and McNeese State at Texas State
Louisiana and Texas go off the board with losses, while McNeese State and Stephen F. Austin march towards the playoffs with wins.


Other At-large Contenders

Liberty (7-2; 4-0)
Liberty were unjustly left out of the playoffs last year, despite a 10-2 record and a final game demolition of Elon. Unfortunately, their prospects are worse this year, given that they will only have one truly quality win, Lafayette, on their resume. Time to start praying for a make up call by the committee.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Central Connecticut State (7-2; 4-1)
Scheduling an all DI schedule, including Lehigh and William & Mary was a signal that the Blue Devils were not willing to wait for the NEC to get an auto-bid in order for them to make the playoffs. The loss to William & Mary dented those hopes, and the loss to Wagner on Saturday probably destroyed them.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

Prairie View A&M (6-0; 6-1)
While the Panthers, and SWAC, will likely be left out again due to an incomplete schedule and lack of quality wins, it should be noted that they produced a FBS near miss, losing by only three points at New Mexico State.
Status: Livin' on a Prayer

Butler (9-0; 6-0)
Pioneer League representation in the playoffs? Better hope for an 11-0 record. And meaningful scheduling.
Status: Livin’ on a Prayer

"Aubrey got tangled, and his momentum carried him forward"

Houston guard Aubrey Coleman joins the sad pantheon of college athletes doing the inexcusable in competition. The incident begins at 4:49 of the following video:



Houston coach Tom Penders responded to the incident as follows:

"I know Aubrey, and I have never seen him lose his temper or composure or anything."

Nor did he on this occasion. He appeared to coolly and deliberately stamp on an opponents face, and was, naturally and deservedly, ejected from the game.

"I'm just sorry the official interpreted it that way. The way I saw it, Aubrey got tangled, and his momentum carried him forward, and I think it was a mistake."

One wishes that this was a sarcastic comment from Penders. Should he not see the light, then it is up to Conference USA to hit Coleman with a lengthy suspension. As for the stampee Chase Budinger, he got the last laugh despite getting charged with a technical foul for his reaction. Arizona won the game 96-90 in overtime.

Update 6:29 PM

Coleman has issued a non-apology which does not pass the snicker test, and Penders is standing by his player:

"I want to apologize to Chase Budinger for what happened Saturday night. I never meant to step on him," Coleman said. "I have never been in an incident like this before, and I have nothing but respect for him as a great player."

"I love the game too much to do something like that intentionally. I want to say I am sorry from the bottom of my heart. I know that God knows what is in my heart, but I am hopeful that Chase will understand and forgive." . . .

Like his player, head coach Tom Penders said he regretted the incident but felt confident Coleman did not intentionally step on Budinger.

"Aubrey is one of the finest kids, both on the floor and off the floor, that I have had the privilege to coach," Penders said. "I know that he regrets the situation, but he is an exemplary student-athlete in all ways, shapes and forms."

Penders said he and his staff would work with director of athletics Dave Maggard and Athletics Department administrators to further review the incident carefully.

Update (2) 7:12 PM Monday

CUSA has suspended Coleman for a grand total of 1 game. What a joke.

Update (3) 10:40 Monday

Houston Director of Athletics Dave Maggard completes the Epic Fail:

"During his career at UH, Aubrey has never been involved in an incident that could question his respect for this game," director of athletics Dave Maggard said. "He has apologized to Chase Budinger for what occurred, and Conference USA officials have taken action regarding this matter."

"The University of Houston has always and will continue to uphold the highest levels of sportsmanship in every respect. We apologize to the University of Arizona, its basketball team and to the Tucson community for what occurred Saturday evening. Aubrey will be suspended for Wednesday night's game, and we now consider the matter to be closed."

Update (4) 7:41 PM Wednesday

I made a mistake on Monday by proclaiming this story completed. Both Penders and Coleman have been unable to keep their mouths shut, the result being that Penders is coming across as a bigger ***, and Coleman as a bigger fool.

Penders has claimed that video of the incident was 'doctored' by ESPN. Decide for yourself:

Go here for the audio. But the most ridiculous indication that both Penders and Coleman need to return to the reality-based world is that fact that both are now claiming that Coleman did not make contact with Budinger's face:

"He attempted to step over Chase; at no time did he mean to hurt the kid," Penders said. "It's clear on the replay that he never touches his face, but his shoulder."

Coleman said he thought Budinger was flopping on the play. He said he thought it was going to be a block, not a charge. He said he looked up, reacted, and then "I tried to step over him. He knows it was his shoulder. I even rolled my ankle [trying to avoid] him. I wanted to see if he was OK, but he was up on me," he said.

Yep folks, Coleman's only concern was the safety of his stampee. On a more serious note, ESPN is reporting that Coleman has been the target of harassing e-mails, including racial slurs:

Houston coach Tom Penders said that Coleman, and members of the team, have been getting "very ugly" e-mails over the incident. "There's been a lot of racial slurs," said Coleman, who is black. Budinger is white. "It's crazy. I saved the e-mails. I haven't been contacted, but I do know the police and the FBI were at the practices to make sure everything was safe."

This is contemptible behavior, and if the FBI is indeed investigating, may god speed their inquiries.

FCS Playoffs 2008: Results, Final Prediction, and FBS comment

Semifinals Results

Montana 35 James Madison 27

Forget the injury to Rodney Landers. Forget the imbroglio surrounding the video reviews in the last minutes of the game. They did not matter, nor did the fact that Montana was out-gained by more than 100 yards. What did? It was a simple matter of execution by the Grizzlies on both sides of the ball in crucial moments in the game. On the offensive side, Montana went 8-12 on third down conversions, and scored all four times they entered the red zone. On the defensive side, Montana forced four turnovers, including two in the red zone. The Dukes will be kicking themselves for this one for quite some time. Here is a recap:

Montana (14-1) won its 10th straight, forcing four turnovers and twice turning James Madison’s fumbles on kickoffs into demoralizingly short, easy touchdown drives.

“This is the first time in my 32 years in coaching that I’ve been in a game where we never punted and we lost,” Dukes coach Mickey Matthews said. “I’ve never heard of that.”

The Dukes (12-2), who rose to No. 1 in the nation after beating three-time defending champion Appalachian State in September, lost Walter Payton Award finalist Landers to a right ankle sprain late in the second quarter while already trailing 14-10. James Madison never recovered, in part because it was as inept immediately after halftime as before.

“That’s something that we haven’t done all year,” said Landers, who fumbled once.

The Dukes did make it interesting, having the ball in the final 2 minutes needing a touchdown and 2-point conversion, but their drive ended on a fourth-and-20 incompletion.

Montana drove 56 yards in seven plays after the opening kickoff of the second half, Bergquist rolling left and throwing across the field to Reynolds at the goal line on the right, a 27-yard touchdown that made it 21-10. It was Reynolds’ third touchdown of the game and school-record 22nd of the season, and the first for the sophomore on a reception.

On the ensuing kickoff, Patrick Ward fumbled for James Madison and Ryan Fetherston recovered for Montana at the JMU 34, the second lost fumble on a kickoff for the Dukes. Five plays later, Bergquist hit Steven Pfahler from 16 yards, Pfahler’s first career TD catch.

Richmond 21 Northern Iowa 20

A 62 yard winning touchdown drive in the final two minutes is precisely what we have come to expect in the Dome. What was not expected was that it would come from the Spiders. And with that, the Curse of the Dome is lifted. It is clear that magic can happen there for teams other than the Panthers, and Richmond does one better than last year, and advances to the finals.

Eric Ward and the Richmond Spiders never doubted, never wavered.

Down 20-7 going into the fourth quarter? Well, get some stops on defense and start moving on offense.

Which is just what they did.

Eric Ward threw a 13-yard touchdown pass to Joe Stewart with 14 seconds left and Andrew Howard kicked the extra point, giving Richmond a 21-20 victory over Northern Iowa on Saturday and sending the Spiders to the Football Championship Subdivision title game. . . .

The unseeded Spiders beat second-seeded Appalachian State in the quarterfinals before knocking off third-seeded Northern Iowa (12-3), which was seeking its second trip to the championship game in four years.

“A lot of people said you guys don’t belong here,” first-year Richmond coach Mike London said. “I think we belong. In the first three rounds we played conference champions. This is a significant accomplishment for these players.”

Richmond started the winning drive at its own 38 with 1:44 remaining and no timeouts left. Ward completed six passes in the march, including a 4-yarder to Shawn White on fourth-and-2 at the UNI 26—White’s only catch of the game.

Prediction success this week: 1/2 (Once again, as good as a monkey with a dartboard.)

Final Prediction

So how many of you who are not homers would have predicted these two teams to advance to the finals? I am certainly not one of them. Montana has put all the East Coast muttering about their being overrated to rest, and they find themselves in a familiar position, playing for the National Championship. Richmond, should they win, will have taken the most difficult path possible through the playoffs. They have already knocked off the #2 and #3 seeds, and now faced the #4 seed in the finals. So who to choose?

The teams had one common opponent, James Madison. Montana beat them by a touchdown on the road, while Richmond lost to the Dukes by a touchdown at home. Advantage Montana? Richmond, however, overcame a turnover, and it still required a last second score by James Madison to take the win. Richmond, as well, slightly out-gained the Dukes, unlike Montana, who won on the scoreboard, but lagged James Madison in yards gained. Furthermore, Richmond will travel with a large number of players who were last years national semifinal, so I am picking the Spiders to take home the National Championship.

FBS Comment

Lets try a thought experiment. What if the FCS worked like the FBS? Who would have been in the championship game? Who would have been in the bowls? Who would have been left out? Here, as far as I can tell, is how things would have panned out:

National Championship: Appalachian State vs. James Madison
Rose Bowl: Southern Illinois vs. Weber State
Orange Bowl: Colgate vs. Villanova
Sugar Bowl: Cal Poly vs. Wofford
Fiesta Bowl: Montana vs. Texas State

Note what would have happened here. Teams that bowed out in the quarterfinals and semifinals would have played for the championship. And note that not only is Northern Iowa missing from the mix, but so is Richmond. Sorry, no third school from the CAA is welcome!

This underlines the value of actually letting things be determined where it SHOULD count. On the playing field. Its high time for the NCAA to set up an alternative to the bowl system. Give all conference winners an automatic berth to a fully seeded 16-team playoff, and allow for five at-large bids with no conference restrictions. Would the bowls survive? The important ones. It should be noted that the best attended FCS game this year, as always, will not be the championship game. Back on November 29 there was the small matter of the Bayou Classic. . .

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #3
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #4
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2008 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2008: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Quarterfinals Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Semifinals Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results, Final Prediction, and FBS comment

FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Semifinals Predictions

Quarterfinals Results

Richmond 33 Appalachian State 13

WOW. Who would have thunk it? Not many beyond the Richmond locker room certainly! This more or less sums things up:

The Mountaineers (11-3) finished with seven turnovers, as standout quarterback Armanti Edwards threw five interceptions in a game after never throwing more than two in one day before. . . .

The Spiders' defense had been shutting down running games for weeks. Six straight opponents had been held under 100 yards. ASU was No.7, gaining 39 yards on 23 carries.

On the other hand, Richmond used 6-foot, 232-pound running back Josh Vaughan to batter the Appalachian defense. The Spiders rushed for 238 yards, with Vaughan crashing forward for 133.

It was really rather straightforward. The visitors stopped the run, ran effectively themselves and didn't make mistakes (no turnovers) while the home team did.

Weber State 13 Montana 24

Meanwhile, Montana was making members of its own fan base look foolish:

MISSOULA — Perhaps you heard this remark from a University of Montana football fan last week:

"There's no way Montana can beat Weber State unless the Grizzlies get their heads out of their dens and score 35 points."

Or maybe this one:

"There's no way Montana can hold Weber State's offense to less than three touchdowns."

Oops! Twenty-four points looked pretty imposing on the UM side of the scoreboard Saturday afternoon.

Oops! Thirteen points on the Weber side of the scoreboard wasn't a typographical error, was it?

No, it wasn't. The only error made by Griz fans was in underestimating the strength and resiliency of the UM defense, which held the Wildcats 24 points under their season average.

And more importantly, the Griz held the Wildcats to 32 fewer points than they scored Oct. 4 in a victory against Montana.

Should we be surprised? No.

Villanova 27 James Madison 31

The Dukes and Wildcats did it again. Same plot. Not quite as dramatic. Bigger stakes. One helluva football game. And more grudges for Villanova to chew on:

Landers threw for 157 yards and three touchdowns and ran for 143 yards and the game-winning 1-yard score. On that clinching drive, JMU chewed up 5 minutes and 16 seconds on 11 plays, leaving Villanova with only 1:38 to mount a comeback.

That hope ended when Villanova quarterback Chris Whitney was intercepted at midfield by safety Marcus Haywood with 40 seconds remaining, allowing James Madison to run out the clock.

Villanova finished 10-3, with two of those losses coming against JMU (12-1). The Dukes won the previous game, 23-19, on a Hail Mary pass. JMU will play Montana on Saturday in one of the Division I-AA semifinals.

Villanova got the short end of two controversial calls. Wildcats defensive back Ross Vetrone appeared to intercept a jump-ball pass from Landers to tight end Mike Caussin in the end zone, but officials ruled that Caussin had possession. Receiver Phil Atkinson fumbled to set up JMU's second touchdown, but replays appeared to show that Atkinson was down before he fumbled, and that a Dukes player pulled his face mask in the process.

It should be quite a game next fall!

New Hampshire 34 Northern Iowa 36

The game was not decided until the final seconds, but the Curse of the Dome lives on, helped by sloppy play from the Wildcats:

The Panthers (12-2) needed a stop on New Hampshire's final possession as the Wildcats (10-3) moved into position for a possible game-winning field goal. There wasn't a comfortable stomach in the house, except possibly for James Ruffin's.

Ruffin, the Missouri Valley Conference Defensive Player of the Year, sacked New Hampshire quarterback R.J. Toman for a 7-yard loss, giving the Wildcats a fourth-and-9 predicament at their own 38 with 73 seconds left.

Toman had an open receiver on the next play, but he threw the ball too high for T.J. Wright, and the celebration began. . . .

Northern Iowa's defense forced six turnovers, including four interceptions, but the Panthers had problems of their own. Grace lost a fumble at the New Hampshire 6-yard line late in the first half, then threw an interception on UNI's next possession that was returned 100 yards for a touchdown on the final play of the half by John Clements that gave the Wildcats a 27-26 lead with the PAT.

"It was a careless interception," Grace said. "Thank goodness the defense played awesome all day."

Grace responded by leading UNI on a 39-yard drive on the first possession of the third quarter, leading to a 35-yard field goal by Billy Hallgren that gave the Panthers a 29-27 lead. They held on to the end, but just barely.

Terrell McMoore made a huge play for the Panthers when he intercepted a pass by Toman and raced 36 yards for a touchdown that gave UNI a 36-27 lead with 2:26 left in the third period.

Prediction success this week: 2/4 (In other words, as good as a monkey with a dartboard.)

Semifinals Predictions

#4 Montana at #1 James Madison

This is a fairly easy call, despite the two close escapes by the Dukes in the playoffs this year. Why? No other FCS team has played so well against top opposition this year. They beat the defending national champion, Appalachian State, and the other SOCON standout this year, Wofford. They shut down Maine on the road. They beat fellow CAA semifinalist Richmond by a touchdown on the road. The two wins against Villanova establish that they play cool even when requiring scoring drives in the final minutes. No disrespect to the Grizzlies, but James Madison is way too good this year.

Richmond at #3 Northern Iowa

This is a tougher call. Both teams won on Saturday in large part as a consequence of errors by their opponents. Richmond, however, posted a resounding victory, on the road at the defending national champions. Northern Iowa squeaked it out, at home, against a very fine New Hampshire team which, realistically, is not on the same level as Appalachian State. Just as the Spiders ended the playoff streak of the Mountaineers, they should go on to exorcise the Curse of the Dome, and set up an all-CAA final.

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #3
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #4
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2008 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2008: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Quarterfinals Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Semifinals Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results, Final Prediction, and FBS comment

FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Quarterfinals Predictions

Series:
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #1
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #2
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #3
FCS Playoff Watch 2008 #4
FCS Afternoon: Countdown to the 2008 Playoffs
FCS Playoffs 2008: Bracket Projection
FCS Bracket Announced: Comment and Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Quarterfinals Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results and Semifinals Predictions
FCS Playoffs 2008: Results, Final Prediction, and FBS comment

First Round Results

South Carolina State proved to be a tougher opponent that many, including myself, expected, but Appalachian State moved on after a 37-21 victory.

Colgate established why the Patriot is a perennial one bid league, and Villanova established why they should have received a seed during this 55-28 thrashing.

Eastern Kentucky's weak performance in a 38-10 demolition by Richmond puts an end to a season that the OVC wishes it could forget.

Turnovers threatened to undo New Hampshire, but ultimately undid host Southern Illinois 29-20, who had a 'down year' with a rookie coach.

Texas State made waves early, but ultimately Montana proved that they were way to good in their 31-13 victory.

Wofford unsurprisingly hung tough with James Madison, but the #1 seed edged into the quarterfinals with a 38-35 win.

Maine looked looked all out of sorts, indeed, like a team that should have been left out of the playoffs, in a 40-15 loss at Northern Iowa.

Cal Poly completed the self-destruction of their season, throwing more interceptions in their 49-35 loss to Weber State than they missed extra points last week.

Prediction Success this week: 7/8 (miscalled the Cal Poly/Weber State game)

Quarterfinal Predictions

Villanova gets sweet revenge for their home loss to James Madison on October 25, and the #1 seed fails to advance for the second year running.

Weber State struggles mightily to become the road warriors of this years tournament, but are undone by the weather, not to mention Montana.

Appalachian State proves to Richmond that the more things change, the more they stay the same.

New Hampshire once again fails to exorcise the Curse of the Dome, and Northern Iowa wins the catfight.